First they have to have a successful Ph 1. Then, if they don't get FDA fast track status, which I'm not sure why they would given as far as I can tell it's a new compound, how long before Ph 2 is complete? 3 years from now?
Meant to add---back when Ohr acquired squalamine, probably almost no one except them believed it had a chance. New compounds are one thing and what to all the world looked like a failed old one, another.
The founders of OHRP have been wildly successful so far, even with the latest financing. Had they gone the VC route they would have had to give up control, or at least a big % of the company, AND retail investors would not have had a chance to make money until after an IPO.
I'm very thankful Ohr went the way they did.
"PanOptica expects [Phase 1] data readout by the end of 2014." Ohr expects to provide final Ph 2 results shortly thereafter, in Q1 2015. IOW, they are far behind squalamine's trial progress.
"An eye-drop formulation has the potential to lower the risk of injection-related complications and significantly reduce the burden on patients, their families and ophthalmology practices." Gives a little more validation to Ohr's approach. Nice.
biophd, I believe it is meaningful, as to me it seems very likely that the images are regarding Ohr-002. Which is why I brought the images to this board's attention last month. I didn't get much response at the time, though.
Anyway, it's a preponderance of evidence kind of thing. Katz's quote and his patient Bob's testimonial, Louella, Dr Elman's 1st patient DME results, these pics, and Singerman's softly spoken words at the end of his presentation as reported by rxmon, all support Ph 2 success. Of course we won't know for sure until official results are released, but the subset of investors willing and able to act on this info have a competitive advantage over those that are unwilling and unable, IMO.
dub, unwittingly, they keep helping the bull case, because they demonstrate over and over again how empty their position is. They only offer the obvious bear cliches, which means they have nothing. No offsetting stmt from a wet amd trial doc. No offsetting stmt from a wet amd trial patient. No offsetting stmt from a PDR trial. No ISTs that have been stopped. No bad animal studies. No bad human studies. No near-term direct superior competitor. No declining patient need. No cost or price problem. No delivery problem. No company cash flow problem. No insider selling.
In the argument between something good and nothing bad, something good wins.
An expectation that Ph 2 would have been or will be cut short is daydream stuff, and is discounted to an essentially zero portion of the stock price, IMO. Which means that if it happens, that would be a complete upside surprise, and if it doesn't, no change.
I'm not sure of the mechanics of settlement for offsetting positions. The next short interest report will be for the 4/15 settlement date. IIRC, the closing for the new deal is today, 4/11. If T + 3 is involved, the 4/15 short interest report would not yet show any offsets, I would guess. But I'm outta my depth regarding this. Any of you traders types know the details?
Of course, the other part is what will the next couple of short interest data points really mean? Each release is just one number, and doesn't show who nor why. So probably a rough tool at best.
The answer: no, not a news leak. Google Zalsoff and Chemical and Engineering News to see that the Zasloff video interview was from September 2011 at the latest. That was well before the OHR-002 wet AMD study even began.
Gotta say this presentation by Phil Gardner of the Brighton & Sussex Diabetic Eye Screening Programme strikes me as a bit odd, in that it combines recent news, very old news, and even OHRP's stk chart and the allure of profits at the end. Not sure who the intended audience is here and why---if it's to recruit trial patients, why the stk chart at the end?
I expect Ohr will issue a PR announcing the completion of OHR-002 wet AMD trial enrollment, as they're pretty good about recognizing the value of PR. Until then, they already gave us a PR on April 8 that said they expect enrollment to be completed early this second quarter (and not by the end of the just completed Q1):
"We expect to complete enrollment in the OHR-002 wet-AMD study and initiate two randomized, controlled investigator sponsored trials to evaluate Squalamine eye drops for the treatment of diabetic macular edema early in the current quarter."
Dr Katz taking down mention of the study enrollment fits well with the new timing of enrollment completion. I would think not every trial doctor would complete their enrollment and take down their respective website mentions all at the exact same time, but only time will tell what the status really is. That wait is probably almost over.
The short interest report for 4/15 may help us guesstimate how much of the new deal was arb'd, if the stk price goes sideways. We'll get the report on 4/25.
Also implies that she did not have what the company lawyers would call material, non-public information. Ties is well logically with the company not waiting til after interim Ph 2 to raise the little bit of money they did.
Since Ohr is issuing $18mil of stk, and the 1/31/2014 S-3 was limited to a max of $15mil, yesterday's S-3 was necessary to bump up the registration to $18mil. Just so everyone knows, this is not more shares on top of the 1.800mil we know about.
A rational investor who has invested before. The company can mkt the deal anyway they see fit, as long as they adhere to SEC and other rules. They had absolutely no obligation to mkt to you or anyone else here. To assume that is not only wrong but ignorant and perhaps even egotistical.
nvaa2, I see absolutely no sign of Ohr wrongdoing regarding the direct deal. If someone accuses the company of wrongdoing, they need to show evidence and make their case.
The company has no control over what prospective investors, lawyers, accountants, etc. do with the deal information, beyond requiring them to sign NDAs/confidentiality agreements. The financial community has some opportunist unethical types that could have taken the deal info and (illegally) traded on it. May have even been done by the Purchasers, even though they represented that they wouldn't, per the Subscription Agreement clause I posted yesterday.
Everything I've seen consistently says Ohr is honest, ethical and as open as they can be. Anyone would thinks differently should bail ASAP, as it's not rational to hold an investment in a company where one mistrusts senior mgmt.
A few here are saying this deal was a PIPE. Incorrect. It was a direct placement of PUBLIC (i.e., registered) shares, not a private placement. PIPEs that have discount conversion features have given all PIPEs a bad name, so thankfully this wasn't a PIPE.
This is a Purchaser rep from the Subscription Agreement:
"(e) Since the date that the Purchaser became aware of the proposed Offering, the Purchaser has not disclosed any information regarding the Offering to any third parties (other than its legal, accounting and other advisors) and has not engaged in any purchases or sales of the securities of the Company involving the Company’s securities."
Would love to see that enforced, at least once in my lifetime.
I think we get the 3/31/2014 short interest report tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how it compares to the 937k shares short on the 3/14/2014 settlement date. Would be too bad if all the 4/11/2014 deal buyers arb'd all their shares. I'm guessing a few are actual investors. A couple months ago Vista was hoping the company would do a (smaller) deal w/ not too many arbs and maybe even with a bigger placement agent name. But hey, the biotech selloff probably hurt the pricing a lot---that was bad luck.
Spot-on, pfashtoo. No way the big boys do a deal pre-Ph 2 without extracting very difficult terms. I'm glad Ohr didn't do a deal with them now. Maybe later.
Meant to also say that, if 14 days is the minimum, then it in turn suggests that they want to make sure Dr T and Sam get those options ASAP, i.e., before the Ph 2 interim results announcement. 3-year options to purchase 250k shares each. The stk closed at about $11 on Feb 3rd, the date of grant, so if OHRP goes to, say, 30 after Ph 2 interim, those pups have an intrinsic value of about $4.75mil for each guy. $50/shr and $9.75mil. $100/shr and $22.25mil. No wonder why Ohr granted these, and I think yet another anecdotal positive sign. Good for them---I want everybody to make a ton of money.