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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

microcaptrader 758 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Apr 9, 1999
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  • microcaptrader microcaptrader 5 hours ago Flag

    I've seen nothing to the contrary. Annual meeting is tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    YTD Console sales thru April 5.

    by microcaptrader 10 hours ago
    microcaptrader microcaptrader 7 hours ago Flag

    Very good point wrt micro consoles. Will definitely see an uptick in controller sales as a result. Not sure about headsets.

    And XONE and PS4 comprise 64.1% of that 6.38M. Still, with a solid 5 months on the market, it's not unreasonable to expect those folks to have begun buying new headsets and controllers.

  • Reply to

    Just out of curiosity...

    by edward.mulwa 10 hours ago
    microcaptrader microcaptrader 10 hours ago Flag

    Zero. Different chip.

  • 2014 - 6.38M XONE/X360/PS4/PS3/WiiU
    2013 - 4.91M X360/PS3/WiiU

    Increase of 1.37M or 27.8% YTD on a year over year basis.

    No way that doesn't translate to stronger headset and other peripheral sales. The new, leaner MCZ should be solidly profitable on that kind of revenue increase.
    (raw data comes from VGChartz)

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader 12 hours ago Flag

    Doesn't seem to be selling that great at GamStop lately. Maybe they should hold off. Or maybe you prefer they sell the excess stock for $39 in 2014.

    Titanfall FREQ 4D out of 3576 All Accessories

    2/14/2014 265
    2/15/2014 317
    2/16/2014 347
    2/17/2014 1336
    2/18/2014 2549
    2/19/2014 489
    2/20/2014 2018
    2/21/2014 3575
    2/22/2014
    2/23/2014
    2/24/2014 219
    2/25/2014 234
    2/26/2014 339
    2/27/2014 577
    2/28/2014 3442

    03/1/2014 298
    03/2/2014 315
    03/3/2014 330
    03/4/2014 2957
    03/5/2014 209
    03/6/2014 128
    03/7/2014 86
    03/8/2014 93
    03/9/2014 134
    3/10/2014 195
    3/11/2014 163
    3/12/2014 175
    3/13/2014 202
    3/14/2014 254
    3/15/2014 347
    3/16/2014 351
    3/17/2014 3236
    3/18/2014 2428
    3/19/2014 514
    3/20/2014 251
    3/21/2014 269
    3/22/2014 196
    3/23/2014 335
    3/24/2014 322
    3/25/2014 2584
    3/26/2014 600
    3/27/2014 1872
    3/28/2014 1672
    3/29/2014 1411
    3/30/2014 3048
    3/31/2013 3045

    04/1/2014 2107
    04/2/2014 3280
    04/3/2014 1745
    04/4/2014 585
    04/5/2014 1344
    04/6/2014 1340
    04/7/2014 3230
    04/8/2014 473
    04/9/2014 998
    4/10/2014 591
    4/11/2014 3467
    4/12/2014 1633
    4/13/2014 1647
    4/14/2014 2307
    4/15/2014 3490
    4/16/2014 1515

  • decided to wait and see how things play out. 270k shares to 1k shares?

  • Reply to

    Same old story...

    by microcaptrader Apr 16, 2014 12:10 AM
    microcaptrader microcaptrader 14 hours ago Flag

    I don't understand what you mean by "new competitor". Skull Candy has been in the market for several years. Astro is their gaming headset brand.

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader 14 hours ago Flag

    My post didn't get a bump. Marissa's stupid animated YAHOO! gif is working like a charm though. What's next, a butterfly pointer?

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader 14 hours ago Flag

    TB's new symbol is HEAR, but past headlines are still listed under PAMT.

  • microcaptrader by microcaptrader 14 hours ago Flag

    I have zero doubts that the market for 3D printing will be enormous. The mechanical engineering prototype segment alone represents a huge market, and those folks are willing to pay up for the capability. Having access to early prototypes can result in huge cost savings and a superior end product when compared to the traditional prototyping methods, so having the ability to prototype early and often during the design phase more than pays for itself. I however, hate to chase stocks. Any small cap or micro caps that you guys are following that might be a player or see some pin action in this field?

  • At $178M in 2013 revenue, TB isn't quite the behemoth it appears to be. Less than twice MCZ's annual revenue. TB is selling at 2.4X sales. MCZ, 0.4X sales. TB's gross margin was 28.1%, which is comparable to MCZ's. Give MCZ TB's valuation and its share price is at $3.42.

    An additional interesting point: TB claims to have 50% of US headset market "which is now estimated to be approximately $330 million at retail", and 53% of UK market (no total value given).

    "By comparison...the next largest competitor on both markets has roughly one-fifth of our share." Tritton did $40M in wholesale sales (maybe $60M retail?) in calendar 2013, so I'm not quite sure how that jibes with TB's numbers.

    TB is forecasting 2014 rev's to range from $210M to $235M. YOY that equates to 18% to 32% topline growth. Again, assuming the entire market grows at that rate, and MCZ maintains market share, Tritton's 2014 calendar year revenue would be $47.2M to $52.8M. I expect the bulk of MCZ's revenue growth this year to come from segments other than Tritton however.

    PS: It also looks like TB got stuck with a ton of inventory that didn't sell over the holiday quarter. MCZ's inventory management, on the other hand, was much better.

  • Reply to

    Same old story...

    by microcaptrader Apr 16, 2014 12:10 AM
    microcaptrader microcaptrader Apr 16, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    Here's an interesting take-away from their earnings report for year ending 12/31/2013: (reported on 3/27/2014)

    "Sales for the first quarter of 2014 are trending positively and expected to increase approximately 10% over the same period in 2013, which was a strong quarter, and more than 50% over the same period in 2012."

    Their first quarter is MCZ's 4th quarter. Since TB is virtually 100% headsetws, and assuming Tritton lost no market share over the course of the quarter, then it should be safe to assume that Tritton had a fair shot at 10% growth over the year ago period as well. That would equate to $11.9M for 4q14 from Tritton vs $10.8M for 4q13. That combined with everything else that went on prior to 3/31/2014 should make for a beat!

  • Reply to

    Same old story...

    by microcaptrader Apr 16, 2014 12:10 AM
    microcaptrader microcaptrader Apr 16, 2014 12:17 AM Flag

    I guess I should mention that the above is excerpted from Turtle Beach's first earnings call as a public company. Following are there 2013 results:

    "Turning now to the full year 2013 results for Turtle Beach, on a GAAP basis, revenue totaled $178.5 million compared with $207.1 million in 2012, representing a 13.8% year-over-year decline. As Juergen mentioned, the transitions of both the Xbox and PlayStation consoles contributed to a down year, not only for us, but for the overall gaming industry.

    In addition, we believe Microsoft the way the implementation of headset audio for the Xbox One until March of 2014, also meaningfully reduced our Q4 revenues.

    Gross profit totaled $50.3 million in 2013 compared with $74.3 million a year ago. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 28.6% compared to 35.9% in 2012. The decrease in gross margin as a percentage of revenue was primarily due to a shift in customer mix, including a higher percentage of distributor business as we expanded outside North America through our Lygo acquisition, higher refurbished product revenue, which carries a lower margin and less fixed cost leverage from the lower overall revenues in the year.

    Operating expenses totaled $48.6 million compared with $31.4 million in 2012. The increase in operating expenses was primarily due to an increase in depreciation, amortization and stock compensation expense, which are non-cash expenses, non-recurring business transaction expenses relating to the Parametric Turtle Beach merger, operating expenses related to the Lygo acquisition and marketing cost."

  • microcaptrader by microcaptrader Apr 16, 2014 12:10 AM Flag

    "As expected...our upward revenue trajectory dipped in 2013 following the announcements in Q1 and Q2, that Sony and Microsoft would launch new consoles in November ahead of the holiday season. History has shown that these console transitions produce a market drop leading up to the transition, followed by several years of robust growth.

    The negative impact of the console transition was felt industry-wide last year. There are several factors that create these headwinds. First, consumers bought less consoles, games and accessories, particularly for the old generation, that's X-Box 360 and Playstation 3, so and just choosing to save their money in order to invest in new consoles and the next generation software and accessories that will eventually be developed for X-Box One and Playstation 4.

    Second, retailers became much more conservative and uncertain with their purchasing, given the unpredictability of consumer demand, very logical. Third, because of the technical specs for new consoles were not available until mid or late last year, the portfolio of products that can be created was by definition limited.

    We can't design and develop new products without knowing exactly what they are connecting to and given that our products are not simple stereo headphones, we connect in the optical ports, USB ports, etcetera, it’s very important that we understand what we’re connecting to and exactly how those specs would work in the new platforms."

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader Apr 15, 2014 11:54 PM Flag

    One danger of small batch production is that you fail to keep up with demand, and customers who initially desired, and would have purchased, a particular SKU, move on to another company's version rather than wait. Life is full of trade offs I guess. Which is the bigger sin?

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader Apr 15, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    They're starting to roll now. CTRLr today. Arcade TE2 fightstick earlier this week. Titanfall keyboard and mouse combo on sale for $149 vs the $209 list. I'm guessing that declares the Titanfall PC peripherals peak selling over with, and now it's time to blow out what inventory remains. Many other SKU's, both new, and well selling, require the freed up capital to be produced. Small batch production and inventory management at work. IMO.

  • bizjournals /triad/blog/2014/04/ashley-furniture-eyeing-stanley-furniture-plant-in.html

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader Apr 15, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    Well...I didn't exactly mean it was a literal copy of MCZ's device, just that IP security in suspect in some parts of the world. Still, Amazon released its FireTV on April 1st, and this has been available almost since day one "PlayPad Pro for Amazon Fire TV" by Nyko for $19. Did Amazon release specs early to 3rd party controller manufacturers? Possible I guess. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

  • microcaptrader by microcaptrader Apr 15, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    ridiculously cheap based on assets alone. Hopefully mgmt. will address restructuring costs at annual meeting Wednesday.

  • microcaptrader microcaptrader Apr 15, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    PS: I know there are at least 5 distinct posters here. I can't vouch for any number above that lol.

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