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Iteris, Inc. Message Board

micromaven7 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 19, 2015 2:42 PM Member since: Jul 16, 2014
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  • micromaven7 micromaven7 Jun 19, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    You're kidding yourself if you think CT Energy is going to stick around and collect the horrible credit quality 9% interest when they could immediately convert the note for a +115% gain (assuming the current stock price of $1.76).

    Regarding my semantics, I can agree to sell you my neighbor's BMW for $500 and you can agree to buy it for $500 but it's not a real deal. When my neighbor tells me "you don't own this car and therefore can't sell it" that makes it a fake deal.

  • micromaven7 micromaven7 Jun 19, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    The 8.5m shares are immediately convertible (per the press release) so this really isn't a convertible note, it's an equity raise. If HNR was truthful they would call it like it is and admit they sold 8.5m shares for $0.82 per share. The VZ deal you're referring to was never a real deal because VZ wouldn't allow it. Also keep in mind that oil was at $108 when that "deal" was ginned up.

    You need to read the "Contract for Conversion to a Mixed Company" from Sept 11, 2007. It is the agreement VZ forced upon HNR which effectively nationalized the VZ assets.

  • micromaven7 micromaven7 Jun 19, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    Here's what HNR did today:
    -they borrowed $25m at 15% interest rate for five years
    -they sold 8.5m shares of stock at $0.82 per share
    -they sold another 34m shares at $1.25 per share

    In total HNR borrowed $25m at 15% and sold 50% of the common stock outstanding at an average price of $1.16 per share. This is hugely dilutive financing. HNR did not monetize any of the VZ stake (because they can't since it was nationalized). All HNR did was borrow money and issue a huge amount of dilutive equity. The market seems to be figuring this out.

  • Here's what HNR did today:
    -they borrowed $25m at 15% interest rate for five years
    -they sold 8.5m shares of stock at $0.82 per share
    -they sold another 34m shares at $1.25 per share

    In total they borrowed $25m at 15% and sold 50% of the common stock outstanding at an average price of $1.16 per share. This is hugely dilutive financing. HNR did not monetize any of the VZ stake. All they did was borrow money and issue a huge amount of dilutive equity.

  • micromaven7 micromaven7 May 26, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    The market can be goofy in the short-run. Check back with me in a few weeks, the stock should be much higher than where it is today.

  • micromaven7 micromaven7 May 26, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    This transaction is a big win for shareholders as it removes the risk of violating the covenants of the Credit Facility with BMO and takes the risk of an equity raise off the table. The press release today does not contain any information that suggests the refinancing comes with any equity-like components such as warrants. If this assumption holds true once all the dust settles, we think equity holders are in a much better situation as the risk of a highly-dilutive equity raise is now off the table with this new long-term financing. The devil is in the details but assuming the term loan doesn’t have highly restrictive covenants, equity holders now have a much more stable foundation to wait for a rebound in oil and gas prices.

  • Anyone who owns this stock should read the first 8 pages of the 10-Q. HNR is officially in a death-spiral....company missed an interest payment, defaulted on loan agreement, has a big net working capital deficit. These are exactly the things that happen before a company files for bankruptcy.

  • TRN filed an 8-k after the close today. Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like the US Attorney for Massachusetts is just rehashing the old guardrail issue. It sure looks like all the bribery/criminal prosecution chatter was just bogus fear-mongering. This recent panic from $33 to $28 is based solely on some folks recycling old news/allegations. We expect a rebound back to the mid $30's should begin soon once investors realize the Bloomberg rumors were based on old news.

    Item 8.01 Other Events.
    On April 28, 2015, Trinity Industries, Inc. (the "Company") received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice through the U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts. The subpoena requests documents from 1999 through the present relating to the ET 2000 and ET Plus guardrail end-terminal products. The Company intends to cooperate with this request.

  • Reply to

    Is WRES up for sale?

    by kateuptons_jugs Apr 16, 2015 1:50 PM
    micromaven7 micromaven7 Apr 17, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Performing well in weak tape today....I agree with your conclusion regarding the 8-k. Companies don't just randomly update the change of control policies for executive severance plans....things could get very interesting here.

ITI
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