A company doesn't double its staff from 5k to 10k, hire bunch of apple developers and invest in multi billion expansion projects if it is having trouble selling its products.
BoA Merrill is trying to read too much out of company's 10K report and instill fear (perhaps to capitalize on short positions or help other investment houses who want to get into TSLA - who knows)
BOA M Lynch has been bashing TSLA since a very long time. TSLA had already indicated that it has 10,000 order bookings going into Q1 of this year so it is pretty obvious that finished goods inventory was indeed due to weather related issues.
I have been traveling to Chicago where the temperatures have been in minus with ice and snow everywhere and East Cost has been horrible so deliveries can become an issue. Remember TESLA delivers the cars to owners not thousands of cards to a dealer location.
Merrill will keep bashing the stock until next earnings and you have to question why?
Last quarter Tesla guided the numbers down that they need to retool the factory hence 2 weeks were lost. This quarter since everyone had to work over holidays they will take 2 weeks off - hence again less cars produced. It seems like some of these scenarios should already be factored in when Tesla provide it guidance for next quarter. You loose credibility if you always have an excuse for lower production and market will not be forgiving moving forward.
20K Model X Reservations - The number was around 19K last year in Sept - looks like the interest may have peaked or people don't want to make new reservations due to long lead times.
10K model S booking doesn't look like a strong number.
I am a buyers at these prices... they have the story down and it will continue to get better every qtr
GOOGL is down on an up day... profit taking after a big move? But then why is facebook down? It might be signs of early stages of air coming out of momentum stocks like what happened in Jan - Mar 2014
Similar to last qtr LNKD should easily beat the estimates. Keep in mind 2 factors that will help post strong numbers.
1. LNKD is gaining traction in China and this could be a huge plus to the earnings
2. Improving job markets means more interest in LNKD
The point is LNKD is essentially a monopoly (sounds bad I know) but there is no other company that comes close to LNKD in terms of features and offerings.
Look 80% percent of their revenues comes from Ad business and there are a lot more companies that can serve ads now and much cheaply bringing down the prices. Google has not moved fast enough to diversify its revenue base. At the end of the day there are finite ad dollars which are now getting split between google, Facebook, twitter and product based search engines like AMZN. This stock is heading down below 500 in coming days.
Regarding android we know that AAPL is kicking android and there is a potential for MSFT to come up with a significantly improved windows phone 10 in few months which will hit android.
Pls. prove me wrong... tell me something that will change my mind but otherwise I am keeping my shorts until stock settles in 470-480
It is pretty evident that google growth is slowing down and the trend is going to continue.
FB is taking significant share of google ad business and product search is moving more to amzn.
I have said it before - the chance that GOOGL will beat its numbers and provide a favorable forecast are pretty dim for the reasons below;
1. only close to 40% of GOOGL revenues come from U.S - rest if international and bulk of it from Europe. Currency hits will be significant.
2. Like of Facebook are eating up Google's lunch. If you use Facebook you would notice how many ads are being served.
3. Product search has virtually moved to AMZN on in the U.S - another significant hit to google search.
4. Top it all with unstable maco environment.
GOOGLE will take a beating after earnings release and stock will break easily below 500 heading more towards 480ies which will be about 5-6% price drop.
Googl is loosing search to AMZN in product category and lots of ad business is moving to FB. You will see declining sales and margins when they announce the earnings.
Things are not looking good globally and starting to drag U.S down. No rally after 5 days of selling is a bad sign. We need a good 50 point down day to wash out excesses before market stabilizes. Tomorrow we could gap down lower - TSLA could open below 190 and test the earlier lows of 184.
Almost everyone has this blind faith "Elon Musk" will save the world, he can't go wrong, he took rockets in space. That is all good but there is also a thing called reality ....
I was also long in TSLA and decided to sell couple of weeks ago (You can scan and check my posts) the reality is TSLA although great company, it is not immune to global slowdown in Europe and China, falling Euro and financial shocks. With instability in rest of the world rising and possible slowing down U.S the big ticket items get affected first and TSLA will likely have rough next 6 months. The bulls are so blinded by the ora of Elon Must they can't see or face the reality.
Facebooks of the worlds are eating googl's lunch and GOOGL has no competitive product in social space. Magins were under pressure last qtr and this qtr there will be further erosion of earnings.
GOOGL is heading to 450.
It might be puzzling as the world markets are selling off TSLA is bucking the trend. Going into the China news lots of short seller piled in expecting the stock to head to 180 and below. When the stock didn't fell that far the short term short seller started bailing out move the stock higher. As that trades winds down TSLA will start its move down once again a slow grind towards 180 going into earnings. There is no good news catalyst expected going into earnings and chances of a negative earnings release are much higher.
EURO has been in free fall down close to 20% which means Teslas will be 20% more expensive in Euro area.... now a good sign if the car is going to cost you 20K more. There is currency risk of sales to Tesla in Europe this and next qtr.
Flat sales- couple of hundred less car qtr over qtr
Possible delays in Model X
guiding next qtr estimates a bit lower (citing usually production constraints)
Stock around 160 which will make it a good entry point.
No catalyst to buy it in near term which means more downside pressure over next few days.
Do you have facebook? how many ads to you see on facebook now? how many do you click? Where do you think these ad dollars are coming from? Coming from expense of GOOGL which is 85% of its revenues comes from ad business.
World is changing
Googl will miss
stock heading to 450
It doesn't matter if TSLA meets earnings estimates this atr the stock will still go down lower. TSLA was trading at high multiples because investors expect explosive growth and which is clear today that sales though still good is not that explosive and there are some question marks. These question marks is what is going to drive the stock down and keep down for a while.
This is not about TSLA stock crashing or some dooms day scenario - its just adjusting expectations in face of new reality.