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Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend F Message Board

mike57dk 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 6, 2015 2:49 PM Member since: Oct 30, 2009
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  • ETY continues to outperform the benchmark S&P 500 index in a meaningful way - + 7.95% ytd with two additional dividends scheduled to be paid in 2015. Realistically ...we can anticipate a total return of about 10% for the calendar year as compared to the index which will likely finish around + 5% for the year.

    NAV has IMPROVED + 5.36% for the year ...and the fund has used ZERO Return of Capital to make the high monthly distributions, preferring to utilize 80% long term capital gains to earn the dividends.

    The fund is trading at a ( -7.33% ) discount to NAV at this writing with a 52 week high of $11.96 per share and a low of $9.95 per share ...

    The fund started 2015 priced at $11.22 per share ...and is around $11.25 today ...

    That is potentially important because many investors will be " shopping " their portfolios for year end tax losses to take advantage of the $3,000 capital loss deduction that current tax law allows holders to take each calendar year ...

    My contention is that a small but significant number of investors will DUMP ETY prior to year end and because the way portfolio statements are reported ...many will believe that ETY has UNDERPERFORMED or done very little in 2015 ...This belief just tends to hammer mutual funds at year end ...but Closed end funds are specifically prone to 4 th quarter sales ...

    Consider a logical " Good deal " price for ETY I am projecting that we will get something very temping in the coming weeks ...

    With a current NAV of $12.14 ...and a discount of -7.33% ...a slightly larger discount of say 10% would impute a $10.92 market price ...

    A general market " bad day or week " would likely drive down the NAV to the $11.50 range and applying a round 10% discount ...suggests a $10.35 market price ...which we actually saw on 8/24/15 and again on 9/29/15 ...

    The investment thesis being that the new year will rapidly see a quick recovery in the market price least back to the $11.25 present level ...
    Buy at $10.35

    Sentiment: Hold

  • From my earlier post on Sept 5, 2015 :

    ETY - on a YTD basis has a Total return of + 2.16% versus the S&P index of ( 5.38%)

    I was speculating that any market recovery in the fourth quarter of 2015 would prove VERY beneficial to the market price of ETY, particularly since the small positive YTD Total return of + 2.16% thru 9/5/15 was much better than having to make up the ( 5.38% ) negative Total return of the benchmark index over the same timeline.

    Ok ...Its 10/19/15 at this writing, and here are the Total return results as measured by Dividend Channel and annualized thru the end of 2015:

    ETY - + 7.71% with dividends reinvested and annualized for the 2015 calendar year at + 9.84%

    S&P 500 Index - + 0.40% thru today with dividends reinvested and annualized at + 0.51% for the 2015 calendar year ...( ouch )

    Wait ..what does this really mean ?

    ETY is likely ( barring another market meltdown prior to 12/31/15 ) to produce a +10% Total Return for the year ...The popular S&P 500 benchmark index will likely be producing an anemic money market like return of + 0.51% ...

    We shareholders of ETY, a long suffering bunch in many cases, looked to be VINDICATED by 2015 ...earning + 10% and cumulatively + 22.08% over the past 1.78 years of duration whereas the index delivered + 14.96% over that same timeline ..a 716 basis point difference in favor of the Eaton Vance fund.

    When your fund is punching out +10% year over year , especially when the market is " frothy" and subject to big Up and Down days ... ETY has proved itself as a dependable , monthly income and appreciation fund.

    Simply stated ... We have + 22.08% MORE money in present value than we had just 1.78 years ago ...For Mutual Fund investing ...with big cap stocks and defensive index Call options ...That's about AS GOOD AS IT GETS ...

    Hope this proves helpful ...your comments always appreciated ...Thx

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Stock Ownership - TNXP

    by mike57dk May 27, 2015 12:13 PM
    mike57dk mike57dk Sep 5, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    paulstutz - Thx for the note ...for some unknown reason Yahoo was deleting my ETY update posts , especially the semi annual report update ...Oh well
    I just posted a quick performance review on the ETY message board ...hope it helps ...
    I continue to hold and reinvest dividends in ETY I think the investment strategy is really good for this crazy / uncertain market ...and the monthly dividend stream can solve a lot of performance anxiety
    Thx - mike

  • With the carnage in the equity markets and August end brokerage statements out in the mail and sure to cause great consternation; here is a little perspective to keep in mind BEFORE making the decision to tell your mutual fund managers ...' YOU'RE FIRED "

    ETY is a stock based fund that SELLS S&P 500 index CALL options each month ( thousands of contracts ) to hedge against sudden market downswings ...the idea being that as the value of the stock portfolio declines rapidly , the value of the CALL options will INCREASE dramatically ...In a great upward moving market; the investor will see ETY under perform stock indices such as the unmanaged S&P 500 , but in a turbulent market, one filled with -300 and -400 down days ...funds in this Option Income sector should do ok ...( NOT great , but not destroyed either )

    OK - lets see how that has worked out in reality by measuring Total Return as calculated by Dividend Channel with dividends reinvested.

    ETY - on a YTD basis has a Total return of + 2.16% versus the S&P index of ( 5.38%)

    ETY on a trailing 1.67 year basis ( Jan 2014 -present ) has a Total Return of + 15.79% versus + 8.34% for the popular index.

    Look ..Getting a tiny positive Total Return of +2.16% after an eight month investment duration sure does not sound like much, until you consider the S&P 500 index holders ...down over 5% on a YTD basis and facing the mathematical reality that they will need to get a +10% performance from the index ...JUST to get back to break-even from Jan 1, 2015 ...whereas holders of ETY stand to participate in an market recovery without having to make up for losses on a YTD basis. ( That's BIG , in my opinion )

    NAV performance - ETY is trading at a comfortable -5.67% discount to NAV whereas many funds in the closed end universe are at double digits ...( AOD - is trading at a whopping -15.18% discount to NAV )

    Summary - Continue to HOLD and Reinvest dividends ..but NOT a compelling BUYING opportunity here

7.95+0.03(+0.38%)Nov 27 1:02 PMEST