We did not drop to 12
His Sweet Sixteen post was maybe 20 % correct...Rig gained 10% plus this week inspite of his Sweet Sixteen Post..
He will be wrong again
Some Oil Producers bought Hedges last Fall that enabled them to lock in a higher price for their Oil into the Future. After the transaction, this Oil is being stored by the traders with hopes to sell it at a higher price later. When these Hedges expire, the incentive to sell the Oil will disappear and the supply will decline. When the Hedges expire, in the Spring or Summer and beyond the EIA reports will probably not report an weekly Over Supply. The price of Oil will rise too. I think that the people in the know understand this mechanism and that is partly what drove Oil Stocks higher today.
Your Monitor is correct......also..note that 2015-2016 earnings are being revised higher
Higher Interest Rates implies that the Economy is doing well.......So Oil Demand will rise also.....and Transocean will get CONTRACTS and Earnings will increase
Fracked Wells are NOT extremely productive. At peak they produce 1000 BPD...then decline 50-70 % in 12 months.
We need 200 Offshore Rigs because the need to find NEW oil is important. Offshore is a source of Oil important source of the 55 milllion BPD production capacity that is needed during the next 10 years. ONshore sources are depleted and FRACKING is TOO INEFFICIENT to serve as a source for this much OIL. 55000 Fracked Wells would have to be drilled every 1-2 years to assure this kind of supply. Why do you call that Efficient.....Why do you insist that Transocean is a loser?
The 1.2% Oil Surplus could EASILY vanish. There could be a shortage of Oil soon
I do not agree with many of your sweet sixteen thoughts. Fracked Wells are not "very productive"......they deplete rapidly...the oil is not real oil and it not favored by refiners. There are 200 new rigs being built because there is a big need for Offshore Drilling.....it provides 30 percent of production....and will grow. There is a huge need to find 55 million NEW BPD production in 10 years......Fracking cannot do that.. Older Rigs still have value.......Oil will not ...cannot stay at 42 dollars very long. Most of your sweet sixteen thoughts are sensationalized.
Could set up a MASSIVE short squeeze!!
RIG earnings estimates have been raised....this marks the end of months of declines......that might explain the move up.
Would someone explain the difference between the API yesterday and the one due out this morning?
1.2% excess.....and you can assume that oil producers are "selling all they got" to compensate for low oil prices. Reserve capacity is not there really.
To the 10 million inventory build. It really is not that significant. The GLUT could convert to a SHORTAGE very easily!!
Was it profitable for OIL companies to search OFFSHORE in Aug 2000 when OIL was 42 dollars and in Feb 1999 when OIL was 17 dollars. From recent news it seems that no OFFSHORE activity occurs when OIL is lower than 70 dollars....but that might not be true
in August 2000. RIG was 30 dollars per share when OIL was 17 dollars in FEB 1999.
Rig will survive
rig will someday be much much higher
as surely as the sun rises so will (((oil))) and so will (((rig)))
I am asking information from someone that knows the OIL BUSINESS to give information about the nature of CONTRACTS in the OIL RIG BUSINESS. Is it typical for old contracts to end without new ones being signed? Would RIG be at an advantage because it has older RIGS that are PAID FOR and therefore Transocean could sign new contracts at low rates and still make money? Are new oil RIGS really that better than old ones? I ASK FOR RESPONSES FROM PEOPLE THAT KNOW REAL FACTS...PLEASE SPARE ME THE HATEFUL NON SENSE ANSWERS
I just feel that this could change very quickly.......and we could be 30 percent higher in a matter of months. I noted that the OIL news has changed positive after the Market closed .....seems manipulative
Sometimes is pays to catch a falling KNIFE.
Lets face it......Offshore produces 35% and that will increase ....that will have to increase.....Fracking proves that easy conventional onshore is rare now.