Really? When the price target is 8 times that? Admittedly old numbers, but every penny at this price is 3%. No reason to get excited until it breaks a buck.
Obviously there are lots of problems with ROSG. Low valuation problem however is in part caused by the shift in investment style. Funds are taking in more money to invest and individual investors form a smaller portion of the market, compared to several years ago. Large funds, with all of the money they must invest, can't take the time to research micro-cap stocks like ROSG. Even if they did, they couldn't invest enough money to make a difference without driving the price much higher. Much safer for a large fund to invest in AMGN than a company like ROSG.
So that leaves it to the retail investor or active trader to own shares. The retail investor is scared off too easily and the traders simply look at short term momentum, attempt to extract a profit and move on.
If ROSG were able to build market cap to $250 million, they'd start getting some fund interest. Right now GS, MS, and WFC hold less than 25K shares.... combined! As it is, every decline in price makes it less attractive to the big boy and girls.
And this is the sort of strategy that every short relies upon. With the smallest of gains, long positions are looking to bail out and go chase some other stock. Go for it. If you really want to bail out, sell calls at your target price. If 32 would make you happy, sell the March 31 call for 90 cents (last trade).
Why is that KB sees a $350 million opportunity and the rest of the world (as indicated by today's share price) does not? Could it be that KB says there is an opportunity but never puts his personal money behind his projections?
That is helpful. There are 740K tests performed annually. Of this 30% are indeterminate, or about 220K. 75% of those people have surgery, though only 50% of the tumors are cancerous.
So if the market opportunity is $350 million, the tests will be priced at about $1600 each. If they are 100% accurate, that probably justifies the expense. If they are somewhat less accurate, the decision as to whether to proceed with surgery becomes a bit more clouded. After all, that is why so many people opt for surgery with indeterminate results now.
Most of the ROSG development updates highlight the size of the various markets they are addressing. I do not remember them ever setting targets for what they hope or expect to be able to capture.
Nice to see that they are making progress. Certainly a test that reduces false positive and false negatives is welcome. Too many of the tests for all types of cancers often require follow-up tests if results are positive. This adds cost and sometimes results in treatment/surgery that is done "just to be on the safe side."
How big is the market for the thyroid cancer test? Well, here's a quote:
" t"he annual opportunity in the U.S. alone exceeds $350 million and currently available tests in this space generated approximately $50 million in revenues in 2014. We are looking forward to launching our novel and differentiated assay into this fast converting market,” added Mr. Berlin. "
I'm not sure of how you estimate the US market to be 7 times current expenditures. Does the ROSG test cost 7 times as much or will it be used 7 times as often as currently available tests?
He must have studied the market and MNKD's financials very thoroughly to set a target of $16.25. Most analysts would have said 16, or if they wanted to get a jump on the weekend, 15. Close enough.
It would surprise us all if an offering were at a higher price than a previous offering.
Market up and SRPT down without news. Shorts in control today (and some longs that wanted to take the smallest of profits). So, coming to the end of the trading day, it is time for shorts to close positions. Seems like a good time to go long... at least for the short term.
It doesn't take advanced mathematics to see that this leads to a steady decline in share price. That's what we're getting. We had a nice bump up last week and though the fall hasn't been as fast as the climb, we've already fallen further than we managed to climb. It is like climbing a 2nd story ladder... and falling into the basement.
Wouldn't it be nice if KB and some of the other execs put in in some structured buy orders to be executed at market over the course of the next several months. Obviously they couldn't state a date or price, but just knowing that management was interested in acquiring shares and paying for them (rather than getting free options) would be nice.
You are clearly among the few that have a clear vision of the future. Unfortunately, without more folks thinking as you do, we're sure to see more dilution at lower share prices.
That was Pres. Obama's comment with regard to WMT increase of the wages paid to employees. Just fascinating, don't you think? Here is someone who wants to increase the minimum wage to help the lowest income workers and yet he mentions how it is going to help the company. Does this mean that he is supporting businesses making their own decisions about pay rates rather then having them mandated by the gov't? If raising pay rates puts companies in stronger competitive positions, I must assume that those who don't raise pay rates will soon find themselves without quality employees and then closing their doors.
I think it is fine for the President to comment on individual company actions. However, let's not make the assumption that he knows any more about running a successful business than anyone posting on this board.
Gotta love the attempt to paint the tape with a 50 share buy at 31.09. Like that is going to fool anyone? How about someone buying those 2000 shares at the ask and putting in another bid for 200 at 35? Then we might have some speculation that "someone knows something."
Sorry, but buying on the dips has not been sound advice with respect to this company. Yes, it is a great strategy for companies like ALNY and ISIS, but it has not worked for ROSG. At some point it may apply to ROSG as well, and you can certainly make the argument that ROSG is much closer to a bottom than a top.
What will give your strategy some credibility is when ROSG gets an infusion of capital from a source other than shareholders. That could be sales revenue, licensing of patents, or a partnership. With all of the "deals" that ROSG has entered into, not once have we seen any cash coming into the ROSG bank accounts. If you look at the history of ALNY and ISIS, you'll see several cash investments from their partners.
Now the question is whether they are setting that target so that the secondary buyers at 5 can get out with a profit or if they plan to short at higher prices. Sorry, but price targets set by too many analysts have a well hidden agenda.
We can only hope. I had ALNY years ago and took nice profits, but not nearly as much as I would have had I just sat on them and ignored the day to day moves. So far sitting on ROSG hasn't been the same story.