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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

mikeedgar 127 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 3:01 PM Member since: Jun 13, 2000
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  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 12, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    So I did a quick search and found out that Lamberto Andreotti of BMY is the highest paid CEO in the pharma sector. His pay is a whopping $26.1 million annually. At ROSG we have a bargain with a CEO whose salary is just $500K. Or do we?

    With BMY's $109 billion market cap, Andreotti's pay is 0.024% of market cap (about 1/5 of one tenth of one percent.) Meantime, Mr. Berlin's salary comes out to about 1.17% of market cap. If he were paid at the same percentage of market cap as the highest paid CEO in pharma, he'd be earning just over $10,000. Of course market cap used to be much higher for ROSG and much lower for BMY and so this isn't a fair comparison. ;-)

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 11, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    The greens have worked toward the elimination of dirty fossil fuel like coal to supply us with our utility power. Instead, they advocate for renewable energy. Yet it is not the declining price of renewables that is driving down consumption of coal, but rather oil and gas technology that has increased US production to record levels.

    And those plants that make the wind turbines and solar panels... are they powered by green energy? Are the trucks that deliver the green components delivered by solar vehicles?

    OK, this isn't investment advice, but I see too much glee in some posts in pointing out the decline of coal.

  • Reply to

    run over BTU, then put it in reverse

    by sevlowalpha Jun 11, 2015 2:30 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 11, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    ..he said while the air conditioning hummed and dinner was on the stove.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 11, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    What's this? Rational, well thought out valuation? This must have slipped by some censors. Well done!

  • It seems that every week investors start moving the price closer to a strike price sooner and sooner. This week it is the 20 and though FCX has had moves of 60 cents and more the last couple of days, you can buy both the put and call 20 for less than that. My guess is that baring significant news, 20 will be the magnet tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Light vol is usually followed by more weakness.

    by rrpoker16 Jun 10, 2015 11:11 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 11, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    With 27% short, there are lots of folks who don't want to see the price go up. As long as they can keep the price within fractions of the recent low, new longs aren't likely to buy. Too much momentum buying these days.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 11, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    If I would have bet on the Cavs to win games 2 and 3, I'd be up even more. Of course if I didn't read posts like yours, I'd save time.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 9, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    Unfortunately no $$ were provided. Given the stock performance, this could cause enough doubt that a gain will be seen as an opportunity to get out at a better price. I hope I'm wrong and that we go back to the 4+ range quickly. Of course hope is a terrible investment basis.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 8, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    I suspect there are lots of measures of sentiment with regard to a stock's price action. One measure that I've come up with is the market reaction after a big move up our down. I think most of us already have the sense that any big gain is a good excuse to sell and therefore big gains don't hold. So to test that, I took the closing prices of the the last 6 months and figured the standard deviation of the change. Then I looked for days in which the net change (up or down) was greater than than the SD. Next I looked at the performance on the next day and for the sum of the following 5 days. If sentiment is negative, gains should be sold and losses should indicate "cut your losses." On the other hand, if sentiment is positive we should see the opposite reaction.

    Over the course of 6 months, there were a total of 27 measures that indicated a negative sentiment and just 17 that indicated positive. So, looking at this period of time, it seems quite clear that sentiment is negative. On the upside, the last gain greater than 5.33% (the SD), was followed additional 1 and 5-day gains.

    No, I haven't tested this to see if it has predictive power. Yet I think it meets the test of first-pass logic.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 7, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    What happens when a stock has a big move up or down? I am guessing that we can judge the investor sentiment by looking at the performance the next day and over the course of the next few days. Here's what I did:
    - Downloaded the last trade for the last 6 months and calculated the standard deviation (SD) of the daily change (2.67%)
    - On those days when the gain or loss exceeded the SD, looked at the performance on the next day and for the total of the next 5 days.

    If sentiment is positive, up days should be able to hold the gain for a 1 and 5 day period. Likewise, down days should be perceived as a buying opportunity and we should see a net gain after the drop for the 1 and 5 day period. The converse applies to negative sentiment.

    For example, on 5/28 DDD had a 5.19% gain, but gave back 1.97% the next day and nearly all of the gain over the next 5 days. Seems like negative sentiment. Of course I'm not looking at any of the news... which may drive the sentiment up or down.

    Then I broke this into 20 day trading periods and compared the percentage of "positive sentiment" measures to "negative sentiment" measures. Back in December, about 54% of the measures were positive. In the most recent 20 day period, 5 out of 6 were negative.

    I suspect this confirms the gut feel of many on this board. Until we see bigger gains held and big drops as buying opportunities, DDD is dead money at best.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 5, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Option expiration today. Gee, all of 1400 contracts is keeping the price at 22. Someone buy a boatload of next week's 23 call and maybe you'll see fate pulling up his pants.

  • Reply to

    Boring

    by mikeedgar Jun 5, 2015 9:49 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 5, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    It would seem that volume is the best predictor of volume. "Somebody must know something really important. The only one who doesn't know is me and so I'm going to buy now and find out why I bought later."

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 5, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Oil and solar stocks are up. SZYM isn't. The low price of oil used to be the explanation for SZYM's poor performance, but now it seems not even that excuse meets the smell test. Oh well, we still have a couple of hours in the day.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 5, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    What if no one either was interested in buying or selling ROSG? Looks like that is the case today with only 300 shares traded 15 minutes into the day. 100 shares bid and ask? Oh, and then if wasn't for spamsters posting here, there'd be no activity on this board either.

  • Reply to

    Amazing isn't it..

    by idealcarpentry Jun 4, 2015 1:16 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 4, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    With everyone printing money, you'd think that some folks would be putting at least some cash in metals. All the excuses about cost of money and exchange rates are just that: excuses. They apply on some days and other days they are ignored, i.e. there is no reliable relationship.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 4, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Have you noticed that while there continue to be price spikes, they are continually getting smaller. Traders are learning: don't hold on too long. Better to sell on the way up than on the way down.

  • Reply to

    The most important info from the analyst day

    by metawampe Jun 4, 2015 8:31 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 4, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    I generally invest on the basis of a positive history of earnings. Unfortunately that isn't where the money is. Companies like AMZN have been growing steadily as leaders in their segment without producing meaningful profits. I think FEYE falls into the same category. As the web become indispensable to most everything we do, the importance of security increases dramatically. Ultimately there are going to be just a couple of major players and right now, market share is more important than profits. Yes, we want a road that leads to the black, but as long as the plan is sound, I'm willing to stay on.

  • Today the volume is spiking 20 minutes before close rather than right at close. Some traders (short) obviously are trying to beat the rush. It looks like longs are learning too. Opening volume was relatively light.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jun 3, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Putting money into FCX is like betting on the weather. Just because the temperature is up one day doesn't mean it'll go up the next as well. Best to sell on any day that the increase is greater than a standard deviation.

  • Reply to

    It's been a snoozer last 3 weeks

    by rrpoker16 Jun 1, 2015 3:48 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jun 2, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    Easy money for short day-traders. Short at the open and close position at the close. Check the volume and price action in open and close 5 minutes. Both are at their peak levels. When this trend reverses (buy at open and sell at close), it'll be time to build a long term position.

FSLR
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