This PR about acquiring Cynogen seems to have a different style. In the past, deals had no specifics or projections and we didn't know whether they were revenue positive or negative. With this PR we're getting the price of the deal and some estimates of the revenue it will produce. Most importantly, we've now got a public commitment to be cash flow positive in 2017. That's still too far out as far as I'm concerned, but at least now we have a target for both revenue and getting to the point where they don't have to sell shares just to keep the doors open. That might not push price higher, but it does help to form a basis for valuation.
Since bumping up through 15, momentarily, a few days ago, price has once again slid down to the sub-14 range. Volume is also steadily declining. Clearly we have shorts at work, if nothing more than on a day-trade basis. That's OK. Let the shorts drive down the price to overwhelming bargain levels and then add. When some positive (not just speculative) news hits the wires, shares will no longer be a bargain.
For companies in the financial sector, cyber security is critical. All it takes is one confirmed intrusion and their customers will start pulling out money and closing accounts. Once it starts, it'll become a snowball and not only will the financial company profits plunge, but without customer assets they will not be able to maintain the required deposit/loan ratios.
Financial customers are highly dependent upon the cyber security systems of their banks, credit card companies, and companies that they do business with. Yet few customers have the capacity to judge the level of security that each company provides. So, the logical thing to do is diversify and control: keep money in several banks, carry a seldom used credit card to back up your main credit card, set up some accounts that do not allow electronic withdrawals, reduce the number of electronic transactions by paying cash for small purchases, and in case the worst happens, keep at least a month of cash on hand.
What does this have to do with FEYE? Confidence in our financial system is very high, but publicized hacks of Target, HD, Sony, etc. has reduced confidence and can spread to other companies/banks, etc. Much like the '08 financial crisis, even the strong are likely to be impacted by failure of the weak. Companies are encouraged to protect themselves and their customers by employing companies like FEYE before the crisis begins.
News implies that MCP will survive. Certainly the contract will ease creditor concern somewhat.
On almost every big gain day, we've seen a fall back to the previous level or even lower. Today is a key day: if ROSG can hold or add to yesterday's gain, perhaps we've made the turn. Hope so...
Acquisition finalized, price target increased, new patent for enhanced cancer origin test: all in the last couple of days. Has ROSG finally turned the corner and is now in growth mode? Let's hope so. We still have to gain 25% just to get back to the last secondary price, but 4 looks lots better than 3. Even with a couple of days of 10+% gains, there's still lots of headroom.
Target went from 4 to 5.50. The other day, didn't some analyst set an 11 target? These analysts have about as much insight as I do. At least they are following ROSG and not downgrading. I wonder... are they issuing upgrades in hopes of getting some secondary offering or acquisition business?
Why pick on SRPT? Small potatoes. How about ALNY? They have a $9,800,000,000 market cap (nearly 20 times the size of SRPT for the math challenged), losing money, and price to sales of 200. While SRPT's market cap is 40% cash, ALNY's is only 10%. Go over to their board and tell them they are overvalued. Much bigger opportunities for you there.
The news flow continues. After a couple of months of scattered PRs, we're now getting them consistently. Although this PR doesn't directly impact financial measures, it certainly appears to further validate the science. That's important; new science/technology is always at risk of being a sink-hole for money, unless it can show potential as the basis for an entirely new industry. I'm finally getting a bit more optimistic about ROSG's future.
I'm looking for a new analyst rating category being developed for ROSG. To the range of strong sell to strong buy, maybe they will add this one specifically for ROSG: Don't Sell.
Yup. It seems like any positive news is like pumping air into a tire with a leak. It looks fine for a while, but then you start riding it down the road and all the air is gone.
But extraction of NG is associated with earthquakes. There aren't any winners here. We'll simply have to continue using fossil fuels until something cleaner and at least as cheap comes along and even then, there will be a lengthy transition.
I fully expect to see a note from those analysts that upgraded ROSG a couple of weeks ago. "Just kidding" is what I expect to see. Maybe a footnote: "We upgraded so that some of our customers could sell and at least reduce their losses. We also thought this might sit well with ROSG management and they'd be willing to give us the secondary business. In fact, the way it is going, that secondary could be right around the corner. For those of you who bought and held, your mistake was believing us when we upgraded. "
Some folks think the ROSG patents are worthless, and yet if that were the case, why would anyone contest them? No, this isn't putting $ on the bottom line, but at least it validates the efforts made to secure additional patents.
I think the fact that the patent covers therapeutic uses is significant. While ROSG's current products are all in the testing of cancers, therapeutics is the real driver of revenue. With some therapies, 5 cancer patient treatments generates more revenue than ROSG's total annual revenue. A miR-34a therapeutic is probably a long way off, but it could be huge addition to the value of ROSG.
At some point, the trading will end and long term investors will be in the driver's seat.
Still a long way from the secondary price, but up is good. Now some positive news from the FDA and SRPT management will bring on some more upgrades.
Sure... with the hope that less competition means higher prices? How long will the Saudi's keep prices low? In the meantime, they have outflows in their national accounts as they take in less oil money and increase spending on defense. My guess is that the US producers can hold out longer than the Saudis.