I also wonder often about whatever became of Melford. He was super entertaining and a wildcard for sure. Thanks for your toss-in fester. I'm siding with you on your outlook. GS has a knack for making commodities hit whatever targets they pick. Im not much of a conspiracy theorist but....
I'm looking for the XLE to get into the 60's assuming the inverse H&S finishes its breakdown. Energy companies are in an awful spot: if oil continues to go down, they'll hurt but if the broader market happens to pull back, they'll be crushed. Cutting capx helped individual domestic producers but the fact they are all running max capacity on pre-exiting well is netting out the benefits. All IMO of course. Energy is anyone's guess.
btw did someone mention coal power plant conversions to natgas or did I read that elsewhere? It will be a silver lining for natgas down the road but who knows how far away that road is. I work for a chimney company that inspects and maintains TVA's fossil fleet and I can tell you first hand that the field IS in fact changing. More and more coal facilities are scheduled to be shutdown or retrofitted with natgas burning boilers. Watching a sustained negative variance between the [old norm] gas:coal ratio is key to this catalysis.
Anyone playing? I've slipped in and out of ERY a few times last week and this morning. The XLE chart doesnt look great despite the recent inverse H&S. Goldman grain-of-salt Sacs stated in Dec that many shale players would go under if oil stayed around 40 for long. Their report this morning didnt reiterate this but it did show their updated oil projections for 2015 (40's). I was still feeling a little sheepish with a loaded inverse ETN until I looked at the big oil charts namely XOM. Ouch!
I dont normally post on here largely because most of yall are on a different playing field and I work a lot on the road and vacation often; however, Ive kept up with everyone over the years: DD, TJ, and ol Jack if anyone remembers that riverboat gambler.
Anyway, I just wanted to get some input from yall.
Thanks bud. I've learned in the past that I am more of a swing trader than anything - just a little too emotional for the split-second decisions that comes with daytrading. I've been fairly comfortable in FSLR since the low 40's (taking profits on the way up) so I might just hang around there and in cash for a little while.
Sometimes the next big trade just takes a while to come around...
Hey Trader, I've been more or less out of commission for a while now but I am back to trading for at least a couple of weeks. I'm looking at natgas right now. What are your thoughts? It's beat to hell and looks ripe for a bounce but seems like the weather is about to start warming (not that weather has helped it this winter).