I see cash $22M and losing $5M per quarter, and having to sell private stock at $1 per share to raise only $2.4M.
I'm trying to see anything good... where is the hope?
This looks very bad.
If they can privately raise $2.4M every quarter than they might just last another 4 years.
If not, that $22M is going to dry up real fast, than they take on debt, than they are finished in 2 years.
Sorry for the longs. Looks like I was right (again).
Now that we are under $3, exactly as I said it would happen, I can once again conclude that a bunch of Yahoo Thumbs Down equals being correct.
no. I just bought .111
Honestly I don't care if it goes to .10
I'm looking for the pop to .18 or higher
The downside risk seems small to what can be made off any news about to hit this week, weekend and next week.
I really don't see this going to a 5 year low which would be under .10
I'm not short or anything.
I'm looking for a first buy to go long and I do believe I will get $3 or less before this takes off.
There's still lots of bad quarters to come before the turn around.
Are you expecting $30M in royalties per quarter?
If you can prove that I would jump in now.
From what I can tell the royalties are small and far away.
Honestly, I have no position in RIGL.
How is $3.40 doing for your average? As a long term investor there are very few who can claim to be in profits on RIGL.
I started monitoring RIGL March 28, 2013 when it fell off a cliff from $6.80.
Since then I've been looking for a bottom, as I'm a long term investor.
If I wasn't disciplined, I would be far underwater.
At that time it fell to $4.50, which is still a bad holding position today. You would be down 20%
If I waited for the next cliff, it then fell to $3.50
This is pretty much where you are today. But you would have wasted 1.5 years of investing that elsewhere.
So, now that I've seen RIGL bottom, which I believe was $1.56, I'm looking for the smart entry.
I think if RIGL can prove to hold above $3.50 then it's a solid investment long term.
So far, it's not proving that.
I'm not somehow who attempts to guess the very bottom, or you would end up buying $6.80, $4.50, $3.50, $1.56 etc and your average would be worse than if you caught the upcycle around $3.50. Which also saves you all that wasted time
I may sound like a negative short, but I'm actually a concerned long looking for a first buy.
My motto is "I'd rather miss than buy too early"
I do expect to come into RIGL soon though
I knew I was right. Numbers don't lie.
Thumbs down on Yahoo board means you are right.
Here comes the drop that I warned about.
It actually closed lower than I estimated yesterday as it fell quickly at the close.
I think $3 close today.
Volume will start to dry up and it will drift even lower.
The fundamentals are still bad.
I understand how you can be fooled from that report.
You simply saw $309M and assume RIGL will get that, so you took $309M and added it to the market cap of $300M, so you expect RIGL to climb to $6 per share.
Your math is flawed though.
I'll keep it simple to disprove your theory above.
1 - They are losing money every quarter, you know this is true.
How much are they losing? Roughly $0.25 per share.
How much is that? It's about $20M per quarter.
They just received $30M, so that atleast offsets 1 quarter.
But now you need another $30M right away, every quarter to offset that loss.
Does it say anywhere that the $309M will be paid out every quarter in $30M increments? NO!
This is where you are going to lose your bet.
They got one pay out, not every quarter. This is critical.
RIGL will return to losses after posting only 1 positive quarter.
By the time RIGL received the possible $309M total payment, years will have passed and they will have lost just as much.
Honestly, that deal saved RIGL from falling from $3 to $1. Not going up.
It's good, but just not like you think.
Now they need something else ontop of this to go up.
Down 10% tomorrow to ~$3, as it's still fundamentally overvalued.
"potential", it's not real money. Atleast not yet.
I do not pay for an evaluation that is not proven.
That is the upside investors should get for holding on to RIGL from $3 per share, hoping that they can somehow collect that additional $309M (~$3 per share) without losing it at the same rate.
However, if you look at the earnings estimates you will see the burn rate offsets the potential gains rate, keeping the $300M market cap today at quite overvalued with half that in cash and low revenue of ~$5M
How am I suppose to be excited about this evaluation? It's 60 times Revenue.
It's 2 x Cash with a burn rate of $0.25 per quarter
Seriously, 12 quarters like this and RIGL is gone.
What do they have for assets to sell? What about IP?
I see nothing good on their balance sheet to save them.
But, I do see a lot of their insiders gouging investors.
I looked at the numbers and it's falling off the 50% gain very fast because it's undeserved.
Now only 30% up, or 20% down from the high.
Why? Because all they got was $30M
What's that equal? Not even enough to correct their losses.
The earnings reports will still be posting negative, even with that cash included.
But, it's only a one time payout.
So, you have 1 quarter of the year now slightly less worse but still losing money and the remainder 3 quarters are big losses near $0.25 per quarter.
All this did was change RIGL from -$0.25, -$0.25, -$0.25, -$0.25 for the next 4 quarter earnings to -$0.25, $0.00, -$0.25, -$0.25
Conclusion, RIGL should have went up exactly $30M net worth, or 10% of the previous open.
This +50% is overblown, and the still +30% is too much.
Expect a 20% drop to correctly value.
Back to $3 definitely, it deserves less.
The only good sign I see is it should create a floor somewhere around $2.50 that probably won't drop below that.
I wouldn't short, I wouldn't buy either. This is a bad company that merely received $30M one time.
Also, they won't give a penny of that to shareholders. No dividend, No buyback.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
here we go! Gold up to nearly $1220 already, moves fast.
Gotta be in it to win it!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
End of day green, thursday up, friday up, over weekend up.
That's my short term prediction
Run down from $1300 to $1200 was for nothing, it will reverse back up
I just bought it back at $2.41, finally filled that order.
Excited to get that price. I know its possible for $1.80 like a month ago, but that's some extreme oversold that I can't chance missing on.
I view this as easier to go up 60cent than down from $2.40
Let's wait now and sell again over $3
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Fantastic drop on HMY! I'm getting ready to rebuy what I sold for $3.10 a few weeks ago
What a great purchase I'm about to get under $2.50 as it returns back to $3 soon
Thank you morons for selling me the cheap shares.
No risk in HMY this low
I'm going to give it more chance for oversold, as last time it showed even $2.
Unfortunately it does not pay to be late.
Cash was a buyer of VALE at $14-$15, now he is a short seller at $7-$8
Both are wrong.
Listening to Cash will have you lose 50% not once, but twice sequentially.
It's much easier to do better.
#1. You could do nothing and wait for your $14 to come back next year or 2.
#2. You could buy a bunch of $7 average down and sell at $8-$9 to get out even
This is the kind of guy that would have said he made $1 million if VALE went from $14 to $21
But, somehow he hasn't lost anything today for falling from $14 to $7, and somewhere around $8 he started screaming to short sell it.
But, somehow Cash is profiting even though he gets both sides wrong :)
I know VALE is a steal down here in temporary single digit times. I don't need anyone to convince me.
Time is on my side.
Over $10 shortly, if you don't like your VALE investment than buy lots of $8 and leave at $10
I won't be as I know the future VALE is worth more.
Sentiment: Strong Buy