You truly are :) hope it works for you
I'm going to reduce my holdings another 50% if $3.30 flatlines
If it breaks above that resistance i'll continue to hold and reevaluate
FYI: Last time $3.10 hit was on a 10 day run up, and it traded flat for a few days.
This time around is different. I would advise holding for more upside as it retraced to $3.10 quickly, and lower price of gold.
However, you should take some off the table around the $3.30 resistance unless it blows through that quickly.
Basically if you see $3.30 for a couple days with 1% up or down then lower your hold.
I like this share price of HMY to golds price, looks bullish long term.
Much different than $3.10 a week ago
I done good selling half at $3.10
My gut told me that even with gold going up that HMY would stop here
Since its stopped there's no reason to hold it
I still believe gold has to reach near $1400 for HMY to gain more than 10%
However, and more likely, if gold now drops than HMY will drop 10% more easily
I would advise you follow me and lighten your holding before it drops below $3
I'm not a "SELL" exactly, just a lighten your risk at this point
Estimate is $0.18 earnings per share
If the analysts are correct and the full year comes out to roughly $0.80 earnings per share
This still represents a stupidly low PE of 10, and the forward PE at that time will be more like 5
So, why would anyone sell VALE at $8 going forward.
I believe VALE deserved this hit down under $10 for all the mistakes they made.
But, the future is not as bleak as the share price is suggesting.
Once February 26 proves ~$0.20 per quarter is save, during a horrible time, you can easily expect x 4 that for a yearly PE of 10.
This will cause VALE to return to roughly $12, at a PE near 15
Then over the next 1-2 year that $12 will rise slowly back to $14/$15 so the Forward PE is closer to 10 (and not the forward PE of 5 it would be by todays price).
I realize $14/$15 may not be enough still for most investors, but atleast it makes sense at that level.
What doesn't make sense is $8
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I sold half my position today.
Reasoning: I figure the upside is limited to $3.30 unless POG breaks over $1400
and its been several up days in a row, mostlikely going to see a pullback with gold dropping.
Also, I win an additional 20% for exchanging it back to CAD since I bought this when USD to CAD was 1.0 and today is 1.23!
I bought all the HMY at $2.62 and under.
So, it's a pretty nice win for me to take half here.
But, I'm leaving the other half because I believe HMY should keep going up.
If it weren't for that awesome exchange rate win I'd probably have left it all.
I made roughly 50% profit on that half, and am just going to hold more cash for the time being
The HMY shares I'm holding onto I am looking for a break above $3.30 which I believe wouldn't stop until close to $6 (book value), but I expect POG to have to break above $1400 and hold for a couple earnings.
So my estimate if HMY's future book value coming to life is mostlikely a year or more away.
CNN this morning reported gold as collapsing, yet it rose up to $1240
This puts HMY into profit territory, at roughly Allin Sustaining Costs of ~$1230
HMY should be shooting up, this is now a profitable gold price at a book value of $6+, trading at $2.70
Smart investors should be buying this up
I held through the rough times and averaged down on HMY, I'm above water now thanks to being able to buy some under $2 to add to my $2.62 from 6 months back
Sentiment: Strong Buy
now you know, lots of morons are invested in LAKE and selling off at the wrong time.
That was a stellar earnings report, not deserving of a 8% drop at all.
They reduced debt by $10M !!!
Without that reduction it is a very large profit for EPS on the quarter, and this does not factor in the increased demand for Ebola orders.
Don't blame Wallstreet, the problem short term are the weak hands who are selling off shares.
They simply can't read an earnings report.
I know how to read it, and it was great. The move back under $11 is stupid.
If shareholders on LAKE knew how to read an earnings report it would have went up to $13+
Bunch of morons, wait for the hedge funds and smarter investors to take hold of LAKE now
The weak idiots have to go, and I suggest they go educate themselves on how to read an earnings report properly.
It was beyond what I expected. I did not see a 50% reduction ($10M) in debt coming! That is wonderful for long term investing
It`s been almost 5 months since I sold all my AMD shares at $4.55 on July 17, 2014 right before earnings came out.
I enjoyed the immediate satisfaction of being right as it fell to $3.60
Then it rose slowly to $4.30 which had me feeling like I missed the re-entry, but I didn`t
Then it fell drastically to $2.60 and has stayed there ever since.
A little bit of luck, a little bit of skilled timing, I made a nearly double up gain buying AMD previously at $2.55 back in 2013
Now, should I repeat and buy AMD again for $2.55, hmm... I`m not as STRONG BUY as I was back in 2013, but I still think I should pick some of this up. I`m going to consider buying in the new year
also Note that last time POG spiked up to $1250 it immediately dropped to $1140
That`s the problem we face today, hopefully history doesn`t repeat in this case, and we`ll be back over $3 if so
critical level $1230
it has to show that it holds now, and HMY will keep climbing.
Still there's the possibility that it falls back down from that spike up.
$1230 is HMY's all in sustaining cost.
Actually need it to go up a little bit and hold for 3-6 months straight for HMY to post profits.
Right now HMY will post another loss next quarter as it was mostly all underwater
But, if this $1230+ holds then forward guidance on earnings day will be for a return to profit
so far you have said BUY VALE at $14 and SELL VALE at $8
both are stupid.
you will soon be shown for a fool again.
you lose at everything you do.
I'm lining up more cash to buy VALE in January 2015, hopefully I still get $8 or less. I would have paid more.
I hope it does go lower, right in time for me to buy it.
Nobody is getting those shares, possibly ever with a dividend payment.
Idiots are selling VALE right now
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The problem is the future is not factored in to the LAKE share price.
The only part already built in is the upcoming earnings, which had nothing to do with EBOLA orders.
The "forward guidance" is not yet factored in at $11.23, that's what we're all looking for.
Who cares about their earnings release. I care about what is coming next quarter!
Fact: LAKE has traded at $10.60 prior to anything do with with EBOLA or any disease scare, a couple years ago.
None of the improvements of today are factored in yet at $0.50 higher than that.
LAKE has doubled production, which has yet to hit the balance sheet.
It's an absolute no brainer that this stock is worth more than $10, if it was previously years ago.
Everything is improved since then, regardless of anything new coming from EBOLA.
The orders are there.
If EBOLA disappeared tomorrow this is still a $16-$20 share price going forward.
It is not the same LAKE as 2 years ago at $10.60, it's nearly double that today.
Ebola funding or not, it doesn't matter. LAKE is going up on revenue growth.
Forward guidance has to be up. Shorts will be covering.
I don't know how high it will go, but it will be going up.
Revenue growth and profit growth do not send a stock down.
Especially on low float
I'm looking at this statement: "Chief executive officer Murilo Ferreira told investors in New York that Vale is considering selling 30 per cent to 40 per cent of the division, which some analysts have valued at between $28-billion (U.S.) and $35-billion"
Let's look at 40 percent at $35B value. That is $87.5B value
This isn't 100% of what VALE has, correct? I'm not sure what the base metals division is, in terms if it's 50% of VALE, 75% of VALe or all of it. Pretty sure it's not all of it.
So this division has a $87.5B value, and the current market cap at $8.38 is only $42.7B
The value of that division is atleast $16.76 per share (double the market cap)
If VALE starts selling assets now at this evaluation, than ~$16 per share will surface as that is exactly what is being collected for the sale.
I'm also assuming that whatever else VALE has, ontop of this base metals division, atleast offsets the debt. Being, the rest is break even with debt levels. It's probably the case that there's more value on top of this then debt.
I'm confident that VALE will be $16 again over the next 4-5 years.
That may not be good enough for some investors to buy and wait.
But I've convinced myself to buy more at this $8 level just now.
I'll pull the trigger very soon, probably in the new year.
I hope I can still get $8.50 or less about Jan 15, as I just want Christmas/New Years to pass to see just how much I can buy.
I'm going to hold for many years, looking for an almost double up ~$8 to ~$16
My target is literally 2018 or 2019, so I'm not discouraged if it stays at $8 for awhile
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The newest batch of naked short sellers have done so under $11 this time around.
Last time they were short from $15 and maybe some left over $20+ days.
Last time it popped from $9.80 to $14 within minutes.
Now they have shorted at far less prices, I say $11 on average, and we are sitting at a critical $11.70 area which doesn't force short covering just yet. They can sit on losses for awhile.
But now if LAKE pops up to ~$14 then shorts are forced to cover and this time around you will see $14 to $18 within minutes.
It's now incredibly dumb to short sell coming very close to earnings, and possible Ebola news from the US Government.
too early, my guess $9.40
but after next earnings, I predict that quarter will be above $10-$11, and 2 or 3 quarters from now will regain $13-$14 area.
much longer view, I see 2018 being $20
either way you look at it, you are getting a very high dividend or if they stop the dividend then the share price goes up by that amount every time the dividend would have been paid.
I'd like to see VALE reduce the debt more, again next quarter. Bring it down to single digit billion
LAKE traded at $10.60 years before anything to do with EBOLA.
Recently LAKE reported a 15% quarterly profit increase based solely off their old business - none of Ebola orders were factored in.
$10.60 x 1.15 = $12.20
That's where LAKE should be today, and it's somehow lower due to naked shorting.
Now you have to add upcoming Ebola orders to next quarters profit increase.
You will see LAKE far above $12.20
Right now LAKE deserves $12 evaluation.
Next few quarters it deserves $20+
The numbers will prove it once P/E is out.
The shares that hit under $10 are absolutely beyond oversold and warranted a 37% spike up on no news.
It's now slightly oversold, as it should be staying above $12 based solely off 15% profit increase from financial report
I understand it.
It's because HMY is still in losses territory.
But it's close. Soon as gold is $1230 (just another $30 up) then HMY will be rallying higher than the comparison gold companies.
Until then, we are lucky to even see this 5% gain today, considering $1202 (POG today) is still a net loss for HMY.
It's all about $1230+
I believe it's coming, and when HMY posts a profit quarter, back up we go and fast.
It has to be close to $4 per share with a quarterly profit.
However, that's atleast 6 months away as this quarter we are in already a loss.
But I think the quarter starting 2 months from today may very well all be over $1230 price