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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

mikerconfer 1266 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 50 minutes ago Member since: Jul 19, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Levels to Watch - Wednesday 5/27

    by mikerconfer 4 hours ago
    mikerconfer mikerconfer 2 hours 50 minutes ago Flag

    Other than the fact that they are vetting potential partners for (P2? P3?) expansion studies I can't think of anything offhand. And I think the EU approval for Ravicti is actually at the beginning of 2016, with Launch further out in the year.

  • Reply to

    Levels to Watch - Wednesday 5/27

    by mikerconfer 4 hours ago
    mikerconfer mikerconfer 3 hours ago Flag

    Well, with two more Investors' Conferences upcoming and the start of enrollment in the FA trial around the corner along with the near-certainty of another acquisition in the offing, periodic Bullish Option activity makes sense. Plus the recent upgrades and raised Guidance don't hurt that picture in the least. The fact is the company is amazingly transparent when it comes to implementing their growth strategy.

  • Good Morning.

    We are trading on slightly higher than Average Volume (based on the 6-Month ADV) on Bullish Money Flow and Relative Strength with Support at $31.25 and $28.50 and NO Resistance above other than the recommended Limit for New Short Positions at $33.75. There is a Breakout signal in play on any move on strengths above $33.25 with a calculated Target of 37.50.

    The Levels to Watch today are the $31.25 Support Level and $33.75 for confirmation of Breakout.

    Good Luck and Happy Hunting.

  • Good Morning.

    We are engaged in a test of new Support at $31.25 on near-normal Volume (based on the Six-Month ADV) and moderately Bearish Money Flow and Relative Strength. Additional Support below is at $28.50 and if the re-test of Support at $31.25 is successful there is NO Resistance above other than the recommended Limit for NEW Short positions at $33.00.

    There is a Breakout indicator in play today should Money Flow and Relative Strength reverse to Bullish. The Breakout Level is $32.50-$33.00 with a Target of $37.50. This is primarily a function of the Resistance-Free environment and will take a significant surge in Volume coupled with a reversal in order to materialize. Given the action of the Broader Market today (specifically the IBB which is pretty much in "hover" mode just below Resistance at $365.00) I would characterize the Breakout chances as very low. There are no Breakdown Signals in play.

    So, the Levels to Watch today are $31.25 (for re-test of Support) $30.75 for failure of that re-test and re-establishment of $31.25 as Resistance, and $33.00 for Breakout.

    Good Luck and Happy Hunting.

  • Reply to

    Suit alleging HZNP patent is invalid

    by h2145h May 24, 2015 3:21 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 26, 2015 12:01 AM Flag

    Actually, in a patent case the prospect of "the suit dragging on for years" actually works in favor of the holder of the Patent since a claim against the patent (or in this case a request for Inter Partes Review) does not act to suspend Patent Protection. Second, the request for review, in this case, is a drastic over-simplification of the design of the drug in question and doesn't pass clinical muster (not that it matters much to Kyle Bass, who files these things all the time simply as a mechanism to manipulate the stock price of the companies he targets.)

    Actually, the company's exposure in this instance is even less (in the worst case) than some people have intimated since, in the event of a successful patent challenge Horizon is relieved of the necessity to pay royalties for the product in question. And by the time the Review takes place the percentage of Sales represented by Vimovo would be a good deal lower than they are today.

    A fairly quick run at a risk analysis here discloses that the risk represented by the action filed against POZN is pretty darned low. As FUD goes, it's a pretty low-rent effort.

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 9:01 PM Flag

    I think those estimates are far too high. And I cannot for the life of me see any possible events unfolding that would characterize PTX's Fundamentals as "bright". They have done a massive increase in SG&A commitment for a product whose sales success is doubtful in an area that is very densely competitive with over-prescribed products (opioids) that are probably more subject to abuse than any other drug on the market. That sector is subject to singular Congressional and public pressure resulting both from over-prescription and recreational abuse.

    PTX offered a Revenue warning at their last Earnings, and that with a major label expansion in the offing for one product and a massive increase in the Sales force for Zohydro. When you add to that the fact that ZGNX got a large block of shares in PTX out of the deal for Zohydro (plus an additional more abuse-resistant form of the product within the year which, if approved, triggers another huge milestone payment to ZGNX from PTX) I find it hard to put together a Bullish case for the stock. The ZGNX deal was great for ZGNX, but I have rarely seen a deal like this struck where the benefits were so one-sided.

    If Zohydro can actually differentiate itself from other opioids as being abuse-resistant then just possibly it will be successful given time. But I wouldn't put my money into PTX between now and the time they actually turn that corner.

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    I think they had a really bad premise going in with the ZGNX deal - that sales of Zohydro were just going to tale off in a very competitive space (that is already something like the second most over-prescribed drug family next to anti-depressants). If they can really differentiate Zohydro as being abuse resistant, over the long haul they might be okay. But the next year or so is probably going to be difficult.

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    All comedy includes elements of tragedy. The biggest near-term concern I see there is in the potential for ZGNX dumping the shares they obtained from PTX into the market to fund their pipeline plus the risk that exists should the approval of the next-gen Zohydro come before sales of the existing brand really gain traction, putting PTX between a rock and a hard place due to required milestone payments to ZGNX. As I said, not a very well-structured deal in the near term.

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    That's a little like asking what it would take to turn the Toledo Mudhens into the New York Yankees.

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Are you still in PTX, Phil?

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    If they can break and sustain above the Resistance at $6.77, reversing the current downtrend, you might make a buck or two. Otherwise I'd stay away. Bad financials, bad management, and a bad trendline coupled with a "de facto" dilution as soon as ZGNX needs to sell the shares of PTX that they got as part of the deal for Zohydro are not a formula for long-term success IMO.

  • Reply to

    Question for Mike

    by stks401 May 24, 2015 1:02 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 25, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    I'm not a fan of PTX either as an investment or as an acquisition target principally because I am not a fan of the deal they struck with ZGNX and secondarily because I am not a fan of the space. The risks there far exceed the normal levels of risk that are typical for Biotech. I certainly do not see them as another HZNP, particularly from the standpoint of their management capabilities.

    The biggest single difference that I see between the two companies is that the deal with ZGNX was badly structured (one of the worst I've ever seen) and not immediately accretive. There are approval risks here as well, which are exacerbated by additional political pressure from Congress pertaining to new opioids.

    If you are looking to trade them you should be aware that they are in an extremely Bearish trend, even after the recent label expansion for Treximet (permitting pediatric use for ages 12-18). They have no Support below their closing price on Friday, their Moving Averages show a long-term Breakdown and they have been unable to sustain above their lowest Resistance at $6.77 since their Breakdown from the mid $10.50 level in early April.

    That's a sow's ear that I'm not sure even Tim could engineer into a silk purse.

  • Reply to

    bang bang bang

    by alabamatigers11u May 22, 2015 3:50 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 23, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    The HDE is the "Fast Track", tuck. There are no "backroom" deals where a program like this (which is subject to a comparatively high amount of scrutiny from outside the Agency) is concerned.

  • Reply to

    Selling General and Administrative Expenses

    by mdwhittier May 22, 2015 4:29 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    A huge increase in the Sales Force.

  • Reply to

    Feeling like a song

    by geringerart May 22, 2015 12:27 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    "We sleep safe in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm."

  • Reply to

    Levels to Watch - Quicklook - Friday, 5/22

    by mikerconfer May 22, 2015 10:01 AM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Maybe I should have said that they are a series of statistical algorithms and data sets that I have basically been tinkering with since 1982. Darned Internet is SO literal....

  • Reply to

    bang bang bang

    by alabamatigers11u May 22, 2015 3:50 PM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    According to the Clinical Trials site all sites are enrolling. If there were anything going on "behind the scenes" that would not be the case.

  • Reply to

    Levels to Watch - Quicklook - Friday, 5/22

    by mikerconfer May 22, 2015 10:01 AM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    I generally do.

  • Reply to

    Levels to Watch - Quicklook - Friday, 5/22

    by mikerconfer May 22, 2015 10:01 AM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    I don't "chart" per se. The stuff I post here is the result of my own (lovingly crafted) models. There are a number of decent sites out there that do a reasonably good job of more "classic" TA if that's your gig, but the stuff I post here is based on statistical analysis of buying and selling patterns.

  • Reply to

    M&A

    by geringerart May 22, 2015 9:48 AM
    mikerconfer mikerconfer May 22, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    So have I, for several - and growth projections under a leveraged growth through acquisition strategy are generally subject to a very broad tolerance band

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