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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

mikeszotak 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 19, 2015 7:27 PM Member since: May 8, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Regarding oil glut

    by carlrich Jan 12, 2015 7:28 PM
    mikeszotak mikeszotak Jan 13, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    Difference with copper is that you can't just decide to pump more copper. So the real question with copper is demand because the supply increases just aren't likely to be there. And at these prices the supply is even less likely to be there. So unless demand falls off a cliff, which I have a feeling we might actually soon be in for a global pump priming in order to spur economic growth, the world (and market) will wake up one day and realize copper is looking pretty tight.

  • mikeszotak by mikeszotak Dec 17, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    "Hi Pam and thanks for your callback. We have played phone tag but I just wanted to reiterate my concern regarding the lack of any management buying of shares. I just don't see how at these recent price levels that Mr. Perron and other executives have not been making any purchases in the market. Believe me I speak with many TC shareholders and it is a very weak show of support for the company. It's dumbfounding frankly. I'm not talking options or grants either, just straight hard dollar market purchases. If management believes in their story and the firm, they don't believe enough at $1.40 with their own money? It would go a long way to show belief in the company and the future and you should be doing it and shouting it from the top of MtM. Just my two cents."

    She responded thanking me for my email and said she had already shared it with senior management. BTW, I have emailed her a couple of times this fall and she actually called me back on my cell phone in fairly short order.

  • Reply to

    Thompson creek symbol changed

    by lightdoesnotage Dec 8, 2014 10:08 AM
    mikeszotak mikeszotak Dec 8, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    "TC will make you rich beyond belief at $4.30 copper, $1900 gold, $25 moly."

    Gun to your head I'll bet you would say we see something like this align in the next decade. So if TC is around and you hold there is a huge potential there.

  • Just curious, the goal of the company here is to clearly deleverage. So right now they basically have with cash on hand and inventory, about 40% of the debt in cash. They'll try to pretty much deleverage completely I would assume over the next 5-7 years. But without $900mm in debt and those overhanging $90mm annual debt payments, how much would the company earn at current metals prices? MM should generate about $370mm revenue at these prices, say $250mm in operation expenses and another $40mm in SGA expenses, and you are at maybe $80mm earnings or about $0.35/share without the debt. Throw a 15 multiple on that and your at $5-$6/share. That's without any moly, any rise in current depressed metals prices. It's all deleveraging. We all know that within 12-18 months they can retire 40% of the debt, that alone with refi will reduce debt payments by probably $45mm per year. You apply that savings to principal reduction and it really starts to hammer away. Can this be achieved though?

TC
1.28+0.090(+7.56%)Jan 30 4:02 PMEST

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