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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

mikeszotak 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 11:16 AM Member since: May 8, 2009
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  • mikeszotak by mikeszotak Dec 17, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    "Hi Pam and thanks for your callback. We have played phone tag but I just wanted to reiterate my concern regarding the lack of any management buying of shares. I just don't see how at these recent price levels that Mr. Perron and other executives have not been making any purchases in the market. Believe me I speak with many TC shareholders and it is a very weak show of support for the company. It's dumbfounding frankly. I'm not talking options or grants either, just straight hard dollar market purchases. If management believes in their story and the firm, they don't believe enough at $1.40 with their own money? It would go a long way to show belief in the company and the future and you should be doing it and shouting it from the top of MtM. Just my two cents."

    She responded thanking me for my email and said she had already shared it with senior management. BTW, I have emailed her a couple of times this fall and she actually called me back on my cell phone in fairly short order.

  • Reply to

    Thompson creek symbol changed

    by lightdoesnotage Dec 8, 2014 10:08 AM
    mikeszotak mikeszotak Dec 8, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    "TC will make you rich beyond belief at $4.30 copper, $1900 gold, $25 moly."

    Gun to your head I'll bet you would say we see something like this align in the next decade. So if TC is around and you hold there is a huge potential there.

  • Just curious, the goal of the company here is to clearly deleverage. So right now they basically have with cash on hand and inventory, about 40% of the debt in cash. They'll try to pretty much deleverage completely I would assume over the next 5-7 years. But without $900mm in debt and those overhanging $90mm annual debt payments, how much would the company earn at current metals prices? MM should generate about $370mm revenue at these prices, say $250mm in operation expenses and another $40mm in SGA expenses, and you are at maybe $80mm earnings or about $0.35/share without the debt. Throw a 15 multiple on that and your at $5-$6/share. That's without any moly, any rise in current depressed metals prices. It's all deleveraging. We all know that within 12-18 months they can retire 40% of the debt, that alone with refi will reduce debt payments by probably $45mm per year. You apply that savings to principal reduction and it really starts to hammer away. Can this be achieved though?

  • Reply to

    Pam at IR called me today

    by mikeszotak Oct 21, 2014 11:23 PM
    mikeszotak mikeszotak Oct 21, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    **20% of their compensation in stock

  • mikeszotak by mikeszotak Oct 21, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    I had emailed her a week or so ago about why no insider buying. Figured no response. To my surprise she called me on cell (number was in my email signature) and answered my questions. Not everything we would want to hear but a few things:

    -directors and up are blacked out from the first of the month before they release earnings until two days after. So for example from October 1-nov 12 if they announce on 11/10. Essentially they are blacked out almost half the year.

    -directors and up are paid at a minimum 20% of their computer in tc stock.

    -they usually have a significant espp, but they have no shares left. They were voted down recently so a large stockpile of executive money is still being banked in cash right now as part of espp, but they don't have the shares to buy.

    She said they are disappointed in stock price but felt it would improve once they show MtM at 80% capacity by yearend and announce a definitive decision on a secondary crusher, cost and impact if they decide to.

  • Reply to

    Admit it please

    by jefferie1979 Oct 15, 2014 3:42 PM
    mikeszotak mikeszotak Oct 15, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    Here's what I am trying to figure out. I think TC has much more value right now than the general market. What I am wondering is will TC be able to revert to the recent (4-5 year mean) of the market. In short. I'm curious to see in say the next 3-5 years whether TC will outperform the market to the point where it erases the outperformance the market has had over it for the last few years as the market has doubled and TC has gone, from $7, $5, down to $2.

  • Reply to

    lol @ 2.08....oh I am crying. The pain!

    by lightdoesnotage Oct 2, 2014 11:53 AM
    mikeszotak mikeszotak Oct 2, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    is there something more going on here that we don't know? I doubt it, the CEO just spoke two days ago. I keep going back to the deleveraging thought though. Regardless of stock price, if the fundamentals of the company (mainly MtM) continue to improve and they are able to refinance and payoff debt, the deleveraging alone over the next 3-5 years should be worth $3-$6 in share price alone at current metal prices. $90mm in debt payments, if they can cut that in half over the next 5 years through retirement and refinancing, adds $0.20 EPS regardless of anything else that happens internal or external. That's good for minimum $3/share, probably more because of the market's perceived attractiveness in deleveraging.

  • mikeszotak mikeszotak Sep 26, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    TC could simply be solely focused on MtM right now and getting to 100% capacity at the lowest total production costs. It's their baby, what future shreholder value is most linked to, the costs after gold credits of producing copper. Think about it, if they truly can get down to .75 cent production costs, if they believe copper will be $3.50, $4, $5 long term, on 80mm per year production of copper they would be bringing in potentially $250-$350mm in EBITDA from MtM alone. $1-$1.50/share in free cash flow. Combining debt reduction and refinancing its not very difficult to envision significant shareholder value being unlocked in a very straightforward and definable path. Makes the volatility and mess of moly seem like just side gravy?

TC
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