I agree with most of what you said, particularly the need to do your homework and diversify your investments. Said differently, it's important to have an investment plan that meets your needs and has a reasonable probability for success. Predicting the past is easy for all of us. Predicting the future is the hard part. So when you say COP is not the best place to deploy capital right now I think you have over stepped your ability to predict the future. It agree COP isn't the only place so deploy capital and time will tell us of its the best place. I think you are making a valid point about redeploying capital. Buying COP or any other stock doesn't have to be a lifelong never sell commitment. Times change and investors need to adjust. My style has been to accumulate shares in a diversified group of dividend paying blue chip companies over a long period of time. Although I believe in every company I own, I would not put everything into any one company. My operating assumption is any company can potentially fail. So no single company gets more than 20% of my money no matter how bright the future may look. It works for me perhaps not for others.
My point was simply that a jump in jump out strategy that relies on the ability to consistently and accurately predict PRICE movements is flawed. By way of example, to sell a stock now with a plan to buy the same stock back when the price falls is not IMO a sound strategy.
About a year ago someone posted saying he sold COP at $58 and planned to buy back at $53 when the stock dropped. His logic was straight forward. He’d picked up a few points and if the stock didn’t drop back as he planned he would still have a profit. Instead of dropping back the stock made a steady march into the $70s. If he is happy with his few points that’s great but to access his performance fairly he should at least consider the money he lost by selling.
The problem with the jump in jump out strategy is it relies on consistently and accurately predicting the future and that’s impossible. Message boards provide overwhelming evidence of that simple truth. Making matters worse people never seem to consider the null hypothesis. In other words, where would they be if they had simply held on? Think of the guy who used the same logic and sold Apple at $12 in 2004, planned to buy back when it dropped but it didn’t drop back. He can brag about maybe a 20% return and forget the stock split, went to $600 a share and he could have sold his share (now 2 shares) at $1200.
Jump in jump out is a flawed strategy that relies on selective memory.