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OCATA THERAPEUTICS, INC. Message Board

minnesotafarmcountry 756 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2015 2:02 PM Member since: Apr 24, 2007
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  • Reply to

    head fake

    by oilup12345 May 19, 2015 10:25 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 19, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    It feels like the MMs are going to try and get aggressive and pull the rug out here. Haven't seen them try this hard for awhile. They must really want some shares! Shake, shake, shake!!!

  • Reply to

    head fake

    by oilup12345 May 19, 2015 10:25 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 19, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    We are ... just not yet! That was very blatant what happened ... No trades below $11 today, and yet, "someone" just couldn't help themselves ... they had to sell nearly 20K with no bids supporting it. Smoke and mirrors, oil ... smoke and mirrors! ;-)

  • Reply to

    Perhaps Now My Upgrade Comes?

    by letitgrowknows May 19, 2015 9:45 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 19, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    Hence, their sudden urge to dump some shares onto the bid and take them out! They're still busily collecting shares for the next push up!

    I don't think you can read anything into the 8-K other than presentations at conferences, do you?

  • Reply to

    Baker brothers increase their position by 300%

    by markdevera92 May 18, 2015 4:36 PM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 18, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    mark,
    Just got home ... where did you see that about the BB?

  • minnesotafarmcountry by minnesotafarmcountry May 18, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Is this drop based on the fact that Obama is coming out with some new limits on how we police (de-militarize?) Has NOTHING to do with TASRs or cameras! Sheesh!

  • Reply to

    GM! Tutes are Building Positions in TROV!

    by letitgrowknows May 18, 2015 8:47 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 18, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    Very strong showing ... ONLY 240K sold and millions held, increased, or started positions! THAT explains the strength!! Also, they don't plan on holding for a week or two. They have at least a 1-2 year outlook. Nice base to launch from!! Thanks, letitgrow!

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by anastarone May 16, 2015 12:15 PM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 16, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Summary
    •Idera Pharmaceuticals has shown recent successes in advancing their technology for treatment of many life threatening diseases, which makes it an attractive investment.
    •The recent management hires are reflective of their very focused approach to take the company to the next level.
    •Several upcoming catalysts provide appreciation potential to the stock, particularly the announcement of GSO studies.
    •The company is very focused on treatments where there is a substantial unmet need.

    Given the huge universe of biotech stocks, it's hard to pick the winners, particularly so when they are in the early development stage. The uncertainty associated with clinical results, FDA approvals, commercialization of approved products and eventually the commercial success leave way too many unknowns to identify the right investments. But given an investor can distinguish the companies that have potential to bring revolutionary drugs at these early stages, the reward can be substantial. Especially, those who are involved in scattershot investing method for biotechs (investing smaller amounts in several companies), some names makes a strong case.

    Idera Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IDRA) is one of those stocks that caught my attention recently. There are four reasons for my argument that the stock is a screaming buy:

    a) Several new hires in management, who came from ViroPharma. This includes the CEO Vincent Milano, who brings much desired execution experience

    b) In 2014, the company made some significant progress in preclinical models, initiated clinical studies, and identified product & disease combinations. In the last four months, they have received orphan drug designation for two diseases.

    c) Involvement of known investors who, I believe, were instrumental in bringing the new management team. They are board members and have influence over the decision making

    d) Recent secondary offering to provide it the financial flexibility for the immediate future. I strongly believe the stock is protected from dilution in the immediate future

    Background

    Dr. Sudhir Agrawal founded the company and their science is based on the antisense technology, in which he has conducted pioneering work. More recently, the company has decided to focus their work on oncology and rare diseases. Its lead drug candidate IMO-8400 has recently received the Orphan drug designation for both Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphomas ('DLBCL') and Waldenström's Macroglobulinemia ('WM'). They are also working actively on Duchenne Mascular Dystrophy ('DMD'), but with a different approach to provide complementary products to the research being done in this area by some other biotech firms.

    These are all very promising developments. If the company achieves any success in their GSO platform, this can perhaps be one of the most rewarding investments you ever added to your portfolio. Its expected that the company will begin IND application for two diseases based on GSO platform later this year/early next.

    Science and Pipeline:

    The company specializes in nucleic acid therapeutics aimed at serious and life threatening diseases. Their science relies on two technologies,
    1.TLR (Toll-like receptor) program: Under this technology, Idera is developing TLR antagonists and agonist that regulate the activity of targeted TLRs. A TLR antagonist inhibits the immune response while the TLR agonist stimulates the immune response.
    2.The GSO (gene silencing oligonucleotides) platform: This is a third generation antisense technology to turn off messenger RNA, associated with disease causing genes. The company believes their technology can potentially reduce the immunotoxicity and increase the potency of GSO's. This technology is still in the research stage and the expectations are that the company will identify one or two diseases in near future.

    The company's current pipeline includes:
    1.IMO-8400: TLR antagonist for Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphomas (DLBCL) harboring the MYD88 L265P mutation. Full data for Ph 1/2 trial is expected in 2016. In April 2015, FDA granted orphan drug designation for IMO-8400 for treatment of DLBCL. About 20,000 cases of DLBCL are diagnosed in US every year. Company believes that about 10% of DLBCL cases harbor the MYD88 L265P mutation.
    2.IMO-8400: TLR antagonist for Waldenström's Macroglobulinemia. The full data for the Ph 1/2 trial is expected in 4Q 2015. In December 2014, FDA granted orphan drug designation for IMO-8400 for treatment of WM. Over 90% of the WM patients carry MYD88 L265P mutation.
    3.IMO-8400 for Dermatomyositis, inflammatory muscle disease leading to muscle tissue loss, muscle weakness, joint pain, skin rash, leading to loss of mobility, difficult breathing/swallowing and higher risk of cancer. There are about 25,000 patients in US suffering from Dermatomyositis. The company plans to initiate the Phase 2 Clinical trials by end of 2015
    4.IMO-8400 for Duchenne Mascular Dystrophy , a neuromuscular disorder demonstrated by muscle weakness, limited daily activity, pulmonary/cardiac dysfunction and death typically before age 30. There are approximately 15,000-20,000 patients in US. The company is planning to initiate the Ph 1/2 Clinical trials in early 2016. The approach by Idera is complementary to the work done by other companies in DMD space (who are in replacement approach) and not to compete with them.
    5.IMO-2055 in combination with Ipilimumab (marketed as Yervoy by Bristol-Myers Squibb) as intratumoral injections for cancer immunotherapy. We should expect IND to be filed and the initiation of Phase 1/2 Clinical trials in second half of 2015
    6.IMO-2125: another TLR agonist that can be combined with checkpoint inhibitors for cancer immunology. Expect IND to be filed and the initiation of Phase 1/2 Clinical trials in second half of 2015
    7.IMO-9200 for certain select autoimmune diseases. after the IND (Initial New Drug) application was filed with the FDA, the company initiated the Ph 1 clinical trial in healthy volunteers and the trial is ingoing.
    8.GSO platform: Still in research stage. Their preclinical studies show that systematic delivery to proteins linked to cardiovascular diseases leads to reduced serum total cholesterol and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, in addition to reduced levels of the targeted mRNA and associated proteins. Idera is currently conducting analysis for oncology and rare diseases for developing drug candidates using GSO technology. Idera is expected to identify two such diseases for further studies in near future.

    Collaborations:
    1.Idera has collaboration with Abbott for development of a companion diagnostic to identify patients with the MYD88 L265P mutation which is incorporated into the ongoing Phase 1/2 trial for DLBCL
    2.Under the program for Vaccine adjuvants, Idera has an outstanding collaboration of certain TKR 7,8,9 agonists with Merck for use in cancer, infectious diseases and Alzheimer's disease. Idera believes these agonists can help achieve higher levels of antibodies and reduce the number of dosages required. This agreement also includes several milestone payments and mid to upper single digit royalty payment if product is commercialized. Not all agonists developed by Idera are included in this agreement for use as vaccine adjuvants.
    3.ISIS Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ISIS): Idera gave Isis license to use their antisense chemistry and delivery patents and patent applications, but Idera retained the right to use these patents and application for their own programs. Isis is allowed to sub-license these patents in which case Idera receives mid-double digit percentage of sublicense income.

    Financials:

    The company currently has insignificant revenues.

    They ended 2014 with approximately $48.6m in cash and raised an additional $80.6m in Feb 2015, bringing the total to approximately $129m. At the end of Q1 2015, my expectation is that they will have at least about $115m in cash, which is sufficient to fund them through early 2017. In my view, the burn rate for 2015 will be somewhere between $48-55m.

    Stock Performance and secondary offering:

    In Feb 2015, the company sold 23 million shares through secondary offering at $3.75/share, for net proceeds of $80.6million. Total outstanding common shares stand at approximately 118 million.

    The stock performance over the last two years has been rather very erratic. Over the last 52 weeks it has ranged between $1.94 to $5.48/share. The appreciation started around the time late last year when the company received the orphan drug status for DLBCL followed by the orphan drug status for WM. My belief is that investor sold the news thereafter.

    One additional catalyst that may lead to a rally in near future is the growing short interest. It's at the highest level over the last one year. I am not quite sure what's leading to it.

  • minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    It's called bottoming ... consolidating/accumulation. It's not about a .04 gain, but I suspect you KNOW that. This is healthy at this point of the chart to show some resilience, which it did today!!

    And speaking of pathetic!!

  • minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    Hi kbutt,

    No, I'm not in either. I dodged the bullet in ACRX. Didn't hold into the bad news. Better to be lucky than good. RMTI can't seem to get off the dime, either. I bought into TROV and FOMX more recently and they have really delivered. Have taken some $$ from TROV profits and reinvested here on this pullback. All about risk-reward in biotechland!! Big boys buying more IDRA ... they know more than me and I'm fairly certain that they know more than the trash-talking turds on this board!

    GLTY

  • Reply to

    don't touch the core

    by oilup12345 May 15, 2015 2:52 PM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    Why, thank you, oil!!! ;-) Appreciate the kind words!

    Have a good weekend!

  • Reply to

    Correction

    by pepsiberger May 15, 2015 9:43 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Thanks, Pepsi, for the TA ... It isn't always reliable with biotechs because they are so news driven, but with the abstract info for ASCO out, I'm not sure what the next catalyst to go higher from here would be. Like it or not, we need to continue to digest that move up, just like we did in the $6s, $7s, and $8s. I appreciate the thoughts ... are you really thinking that there's not much real support until we go down to the mid-$9s? It's hard to be patient when adding shares. But that is what is required in biotechland!! Patience and more patience!!

  • minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    As soon as it closed in on $3, "someone" threw a block of 40K+ shares up for sale at $3. Clearly, they wanted to cap the momentum!

  • Reply to

    Dont blame that loser MGM for being angry..

    by jk4763 May 15, 2015 2:35 PM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    Really? When a CEO buys at $4 and I can buy under $3, I feel like I'm getting a bargain! The stock price and the company are NOT the same thing!!

  • minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    No worries, Mac ... you'll get some $16s again, no doubt. Once the volume dries up, the shorts push it down. I really don't know what they are thinking, other than there is no real way out for them except to cover into big volume. The story changed since they staked their claim ... big growth going forward. Sounds a little bit like TASR, doesn't it? I rode TROV from the $4.50 secondary to $11 and change ... looking to deploy some $$ into another spec biotech! Been buying some IDRA in the $2.70's ... I know biotech isn't your thing! I've done real well there and gotten burned a few times, as well. I guess it's fine if you can just manage to pick more winners than losers! They are not for the feint of heart, though!!

  • minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    js,
    You nailed it! Watch it miraculously land on that $33 number!

  • Reply to

    Double Bottom?

    by hughhaggerty14 May 15, 2015 10:51 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    We actually started the day out with nice volume and it was positive ... if I remember, it was about 400K within the first 60 mins or so. When volume dropped off, we continue to see the pressure to the downside ... easy enough to do for those "mischief makers"! I truly think it will take a market meltdown or some other negative event to take this down to those $2.60 levels. But that's just my opinion ... there was good volume off the $2.70 area twice now.

  • Reply to

    Starting to watch for re-entry

    by been_there_done_that_twice May 15, 2015 11:47 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    btdtt,
    Watch that $2.70 area ... we've bounced off twice.

  • Reply to

    Trading over 30 Years!

    by letitgrowknows May 15, 2015 11:59 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Look, jools was honest and said he sold. He did not try to bash the stock or be dishonest about where he stands now. Irrational pumping is as bad, or worse, than bashing! The stock has had a 100%+ move in 2015. Without some new development, it will be hard to sustain that momentum. Some people will get bored and move on ... summer is a weak time for the market, generally. We'll see, but let's try to keep it civil, shall we?

  • Reply to

    GLTA

    by joolschristo May 15, 2015 11:21 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Never a mistake to book a quick profit! But, when I get in early enough on a stock with this much potential, I take a little off and keep the rest. That way I have dry powder to add to a position I really believe in. Good for you ... and good luck!! This is still a long term winner!!

  • Reply to

    l.o.l fools paid 3.05-3.15 pre market

    by jk4763 May 15, 2015 9:43 AM
    minnesotafarmcountry minnesotafarmcountry May 15, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Hugh,
    Are you still holding your FOMX? It has been consolidating very nicely after moving up strongly after "earnings". Wish there was more discussion on that board.

OCAT
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