The tight price action after lunch is because the specialist has accepted the order from a major client to either buy or sell a large block today and committed to an average PPS to get the commission and future business. Some days it will carry over to the next day which may be today's case since it went into the close.. It's called throttling but the big question is whether it was a buyer or seller? Typically if it is at the low end of the range that day its a sell order but by the volume count maybe only 500,00 shares. If it is continued the specialist will gap it up in the morning and then sell against it to complete the order and price point.
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Very similar to ANV when investors were waiting for both delayed earnings and financing.
One morning the news hit about BK and now those still holding stock are trying
to comfort themselves that somehow they will receive warrants in the new company.
Renegotiating with the lender, if even it were to happen, will not improve their cash position
to continue the other ventures especially if the ore quality is substandard early on in the process.
They may pour enough to make the lender payments and possibly fund the Pan operation but to remain
viable they need real cash in the bank.
I am sure this is what they are trying to resolve right now.
Even at these share price levels I still expect they will sell stock to raise cash and are trying to find a buyer in size.
The apparent sell on the news today leads me to re-evaluate MDW with the opinion they will be
forced by their creditors into selling all if not most of the $50m shelf. On the 31st,they will use the line about after numerous delays the mine is finally producing but at a great cost and due to the ore quality and cash balance sheet we must place more shares. Sadly,if they would have addressed this sooner or when the shares were closer to $1 it would have diluted the shares a lot less to raise the $50m.
Just looking at the volume and charts during the flat line at .36 these last 2 1/2 days someone has been buying at best guess 1 million shares. It supported the SP even on a bad market day until the MM finally filled it and walked away leaving the last couple of hours in freefall.
Sourmilky may be right and only the novices will be expecting a big reward in less than a week if they are on schedule. However, with the setbacks over the last year and cash situation the professionals will always wait for the news and pop, then buy the playable pullback before risking their return.
Unlike any other manufacturer, the beauty of gold production is that it instantly transforms into cash which is the Achilles heal of this company right now.
Look at the curious flatline intraday chart for most of yesterday afternoon and again today.
Rarely do you see such open accumulation of shares.
Someone is sitting on the bid collecting the shares sold without disrupting or spiking the price.
I have only seen this happen when a market maker and sometimes split between 2 or 3 others takes a very large institutional order to fill at a very tight pps. It is the opposite of when you see bad news and the MM sits at the ask selling relentlessly to get an institution out.
The short interest is too low to be a position cover so it has to be a buyer.
It will be confirmed when the order finally gets filled and the price starts to lift as the majority of the sellers have been taken out and the bid starts to lift.
This is a very good sign.
It could be actually a good or bad sign that they are not offering out for the $50m at these prices either because:
THE GOOD.....they are feeling the SP will be higher in the near future as well as cash flow once pouring
THE BAD........they floated a test balloon quietly on the side to various financiers and there was little interest.
Time will tell.
Gold up today and MDW languishing in the red on mediocre volume.
Perhaps it is fools gold that everything already known about this company is known and the efficiency of the market deems it $.34 ??? That would include the upcoming pour as advertised, loan modifications due to
dwindling cash and future exploration sites still in the due diligence and permitting process.
Not much of a bounce after the recent hard fall.
If MDW stays positive today (only the 2 days positive since February 25) at these levels
the bargain hunters will sense the end of the selling and start moving back in with the anticipation of the first pour.
Volume rising nicely!
Lets see if it can climb back to even or better yet turn positive at the end of the day.
That would be a very good sign.
Seeing such a dramatic drop in price on increasing volume looks a lot like capitulation is underway.
Couple that with a new multi-month lows in gold and the fear and pain increases with each penny drop.
Looking at the charts many new positions were established in MDW last summer on the uptrend taking it from$.80 to $ 1.15. Those buyers probably held on through the delays and price decline but are underwater more than 60% at today's prices and will scramble to salvage whatever they can.
We need to see a 2 million share day volume spike to confirm this perfect storm is underway.
Will the company go BK? No
Will they need to dilute the shares to raise capital? Possibly.
If they can get produce product in the next 12 days confidence will be restored to the investors and lenders.
In the meantime, I will keep adding at these levels with the thought it is being priced like a LEAP option play for a potential upside.
I had hoped you may have sold off at least half of your holdings based on our exchanged postings.
Never hurts to take a breather.
Regarding earnings it is looking like they are aiming towardTuesday the 17th per other sources I have access. Should be a notice showing up next week. I cannot get an answer why they are delaying.
I can't give you any advice as it all depends on your cost basis.
The puts are expensive and really crowded at the March $1 strike with over 16,000 which as a contrarian gives me some clue they will be wrong. Statistically, more than 80% of all puts expire worthless.
In past cases where I stupidly did not use mental stops and went underwater I usually sold 1/2 off to sleep better. That way if they go south I feel a lot better and if they takeoff I am still in the game.
The hardest lesson is to pull the trigger and get out but it has saved me many , many times from huge losses.
I have been seriously trading in the markets for 25 years, probably an elder on this board.
That said I can state with certainty the following.
The market pricing is efficient from day to day based on what is perceived not always what is fact. The market thinks ANV is only worth $.89 per share.
The value buyers (SMART MONEY) have evaluated the entire holdings including the potential of the Hycroft and short & long term debt. They are factoring the likely hood of gold rebounding significantly and the chance of a buyout or JV. I worked for one of these firms and their are hundreds of these firms with a large staff constantly researching for buying or shorting possibility. They talk to management, bondholders, suppliers etc to research before they commit.
Lastly, retail investors / stockholders RARELY get anything in BK. Anyone who has been in the markets long enough has received those class action notices for millions only to receive less than a dollar if they win.
After the bondholders, banks, suppliers and especially the lawyers get paid there is intentionally nothing left to distribute. This is by design to relieve the overhead debt and allow the company to have a much better balance sheet when it emerges with "new and improved" stock for us to buy.
Just Google GM stockholders in 2010 who held on into BK. Even a company that has been around for decades wiped out all there common stock that grandma held and left her at zero. Kmart was another!
As in my other posts I have been moving in and out of the stock in recent months as a proxy for playing gold. I sold out at the end of February with a small profit after the inability to hold the $1.00 level. The recent delay in earnings until the week of the 16th opened an opportunity to but cheap call options which if there is good news and a little lift in gold beforehand may pay off with little risk at $5.00 / 100 shares.
Right now I see that as the only way to play ANV .
Seems like a lot of shortie comments here these days. You would think driving a stock to sub $1 would be satisfy to enough greed in people.
To clarify about BK if it were to happen the unsecured debt does not mean ANV can avoid paying them it only means the debt is not on a specific asset.
In order of their priority this is the payment scenario in a BK.
Assets and proceeds are distributed to satisfy claims in order of the claims' priority. Investors who take the least amount of risk are paid first. As a result, creditors and bondholders who lend a company money will be paid before its stockholders, who have purchased an ownership stake. Creditors are paid after legal and administrative costs have been covered.
Secured creditors, whose claims are protected by specific assets or collateral, such as real estate, are paid first.
Then unsecured creditors, which often include bank lenders, bondholders and suppliers, are next in line.
Stockholders, who have purchased a portion of the company, are paid last, if there is money available after the secured and unsecured creditors' claims have been paid.
We are already at 75% of yesterdays volume at only 2 1/2 hours from the open. Lots of buying pressure.
I think MDR is helping fuel speculation about HERO today.
First let me state I am not short I sold my long position last week. I currently have no position and will not initiate one until after earnings.
As I mentioned in my other posts the management is a very savvy and well experienced team.
The screwed up in taking on too much debt during the higher gold prices. They were not alone. Just look at the oil companies such as BPZ, AMZG and SD to see where huge debt and little cash takes you despite having resources in the ground.
Management knows there are in the hundreds of millions of dollars in potential gold but considerably diminished when balanced against the debt and common stock.
Management also knows the bond holders know nothing about running a mine and will obviously keep them on. Look at the ownership by the officers and directors. Not a one has bought a single share in over a year! and some nearly 2 years!
That speaks volumes about what value the common stock has in the future.
I was not trying to ridicule you or the other poster with 67,000+ shares but I have been in the markets for 25 years and still have clients holding onto stocks they bought in 1999 like JDSU, CSCO, and INTC when they were 2 to 3 times higher even at NASDAQ 5000. Meanwhile they have tied up their money for 16 years hoping to break even which may never happen in their lifetime.
My point is you have $92,920 at todays close to move to the sidelines or enter into a trade with more potential upside rather than say I am down $150k so $92k is not that much more to lose.
The poster remarking about George Soros or Icahn is laughable and naive.
Being in the markets so long does give me a bit of insight and institutional memory and with that I
would guess the real scenario will be no buyout or JV. The reason is like GM and many other businesses once heavily saddled in debt and overhead will enter into BK with the prearrangement of wiping out the debt including common stock.
Soros or Icahn would have been working with ANV a year ago as the meltdown (no pun intended) was gaining momentum. They or anyone with deep pockets would work with management to let them keep their jobs, BK out the debt for pennies on the dollar to the creditors, wipe out the common stockholders and as much of the preferred as possible then come back out of BK in a year with all the remaining assets with zero debt. They would issue new stock to themselves and apply to the NYSE for re- listing or IPO reaping millions. It is done all the time.
Ask yourself, why take on huge debt, shareholders and low gold prices even at $.92 when they could legally manipulate it to make 1000 times their investment.
You will see this same tactic in the oil patch over the next year as high debt companies go into BK to restructure and wipe out shareholder equity along the way.
Another idea would be to pull out your money and spend it on call options say the January 2017 $2.00 strike which you could get for $.15.
No I said the market is nearing a top.
Just more anecdotal evidence similar to the appearance of the " Daytrade My Money" and a broker friend of mine saying there is a tidal wave of moms and pops now insisting after 7 years it is time to get back in the market.
I am amazed at the post on this and other boards of INDIVIDUALS holding tens of thousands of shares in ANV stock. Unless we have multi-millionaires trading for fun versus watching Dr Oz or Judge Judy this is yet another sign the market is at the top. BE CAREFUL!
Regarding ANV I sold my position (5000 shares) once it could not hold $1.00. The lack of a earnings announcement and disregard of inquiries to IR make it sensible to go to the sidelines for now.
People forget it is only worth what it closes at today. You can always get back in once more clarity returns to the stock. One poster has 100k shares and willing to write it off as a bad trade from $2.80 rather than sell now and wait for awhile to get back in during so much risk. At least with $93,000 selling now he could put his money into a winning stock or wait for ANV to start a solid uptrend.