i thought this was worthy of a repost..I'm probably off by 20m in ebitda but given that the company is buidling another 40 units over the next 15 months, it doesn't matter..shorts better pray a portfolio sale doesn't happen
well..I know what I'm talking about..I do not think they will sell the portfolio for less than 1.1B, which means that the share price after 400M cash after the sale and the reduction of all debt is trading at 900M right now.When the enterprise valur should and will be well over 2B..I can wait for 70+ no problem..
Retail sales alone will be 2B in 12 months
Average new unti volume 13.8M
Average EBITDA per unit 3.8M x 40 new units this year and next= 150M..this is a hard number
After the portfolio sale and instaling a selling of receivables program, the analysts will turn to this number and there will be enormous multiple expansion in the stock. You could see a 25x multiple with this kind of growth rate with the risk elimination
deal is done..looking forward to announcement..can't be believe the shake out...down 6 bucks off of high of 44
From the conference call...during the cc...Wright said sale by the end of the second quarter and offered specics on how the deal would work
I'll look silly after the end of second qtr...everything still on track as far as I'm concerned..deal will be end of qtr so the books are straight
your right..I'm off by 15-20M on COGS but who cares when they are building 20 units year without the debt risk overhang..it makes you wonder if these guys have ever done the math or even considered a big model change is coming
I've finally done the analysis today and for the life of me, I cannot understand what shorts are thinking.We are at ground 0 and I expect an announcement anytime over the next couple of weeks per the company's guidance
Here are the numbers breakdown just for retail sales without the credit side:
Product sales $1.30B
Service Revenues $20M
Repair agreements $105M
Total revenue $1425M
Cost of parts $8M
Delivery $ 57M
Operating profit $220M....this is right off the 2015 P&L in terms of percentages for each category. They have already said, selling off the receivables will be a wash between cost to service the debt and fees...With no debt risk, the company will command a minimum of 11X operating profit and frankly with unit growth of 20% per year going forward, I believe the multiple based on growth will be much higher-much higher!. Now if they sell the portfolio for 1.1B or higher as they have indicated, they will have a minimum of 400M cash and again no debt..at 11x operating profit plus 400M cash, that's a market cap of over 2.8B...
Next year, the EBITDA will spike to 280M minimum with 22 more units built per company guidance
That is a long way from 40..these are hard numbers.I just don't get why these guys haven't covered in force..
"At an 8.5 times multiple, which is what most retailers might be valued at, that segment may be worth $1 billion"
1. Conns will get between 1.1B to 1.4B for the portfolio sale per company guidance leaving about 450M in cash increasing valuation "on his case" to 1.4B
2. It looks at earnings way backwards for the retail divsion
3. Company building 40 units in 16 months per company guidance taking those backe=wars earnings up even furth
4. And the big one..50% growth rate on revenues with massive unit growth as projected by the company into the future lends to about a 25 multiple..not 8.5x (expecially without debt)..that takes the price target to about 80...
And I've been saying all along the sale should come around the July monthly report..company guidance on the sale was end of second qtr to be safe.We are very close..
If you look at the stupid claims it makes like Conns is out of cash and comps are down when they are going to up the rest of the year, this thing was put together quick to try to take advantage I guess of the Greece thing and looks pretty stupid
For anyone knew who wants to know what is happening with this company
This with the selling of their loan book, which I believe could now be anytime, per company guidance, shorts are hoping for amnesia?? The company will be trading less than 1B market cap with no debt net the cash after the portfolio sale..The company has had multiple upgrades and price target increases....looking for a big reversal here as shorts were covering at 42..I'm pretty sure they will be covering pretty hard down here..
The idea of a common currency is that less productive states are buoyed by more productive states. Imagine if the U.S. currency depended on the output of New Mexico, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Mississippi. i does not. The rest of the union keeps those economies afloat by redistributing the wealth generated by California and The Northeast. The E.U. needs to suck it up and understand that they are not all equal players in every regard. There are benefits to having underperforming members. They provide a drag on the currency that makes their economy more competitive as a whole.
The promise of debt relief in the proposal is simply a lie..So is the reduction to 13% VAT.that'sa only for hotels and basic food...everything else its 23% and would make Greek tourism completely uncompetitive
And if you wondering why Greece said no, read the EC proposal. It asks for a 23% VAT on restaurants and tourism on the Greek Islands ( the life blood of the Greek economy). By comparison, Turkey is at 11% I believe. This proposal is so misguided its mind boggling and speaks to who the heck is running the show over at the EC. It would destroy what's left of the Greek economy which GDP is already down 25%. It certainly doesn't speak to a growth plan..so Greece is right. They don't want to be slaves to Germany and have their economy further destroyed
Greece economy the size of North Carolina
1, Banks and stock market close next week in Greece
2. Greek vote to stay in the Euro next Sunday.70% poll shows vote will be yes. After capital controls for a week, it will be 90%. Greece will get their money in 8 days..now if the people surprise and vote no due to mass insanity, then that's different story
3. Nobody cares about Greece anyway..non event for market until 8 days from now