your right..I'm off by 15-20M on COGS but who cares when they are building 20 units year without the debt risk overhang..it makes you wonder if these guys have ever done the math or even considered a big model change is coming
I've finally done the analysis today and for the life of me, I cannot understand what shorts are thinking.We are at ground 0 and I expect an announcement anytime over the next couple of weeks per the company's guidance
Here are the numbers breakdown just for retail sales without the credit side:
Product sales $1.30B
Service Revenues $20M
Repair agreements $105M
Total revenue $1425M
Cost of parts $8M
Delivery $ 57M
Operating profit $220M....this is right off the 2015 P&L in terms of percentages for each category. They have already said, selling off the receivables will be a wash between cost to service the debt and fees...With no debt risk, the company will command a minimum of 11X operating profit and frankly with unit growth of 20% per year going forward, I believe the multiple based on growth will be much higher-much higher!. Now if they sell the portfolio for 1.1B or higher as they have indicated, they will have a minimum of 400M cash and again no debt..at 11x operating profit plus 400M cash, that's a market cap of over 2.8B...
Next year, the EBITDA will spike to 280M minimum with 22 more units built per company guidance
That is a long way from 40..these are hard numbers.I just don't get why these guys haven't covered in force..
"At an 8.5 times multiple, which is what most retailers might be valued at, that segment may be worth $1 billion"
1. Conns will get between 1.1B to 1.4B for the portfolio sale per company guidance leaving about 450M in cash increasing valuation "on his case" to 1.4B
2. It looks at earnings way backwards for the retail divsion
3. Company building 40 units in 16 months per company guidance taking those backe=wars earnings up even furth
4. And the big one..50% growth rate on revenues with massive unit growth as projected by the company into the future lends to about a 25 multiple..not 8.5x (expecially without debt)..that takes the price target to about 80...
And I've been saying all along the sale should come around the July monthly report..company guidance on the sale was end of second qtr to be safe.We are very close..
If you look at the stupid claims it makes like Conns is out of cash and comps are down when they are going to up the rest of the year, this thing was put together quick to try to take advantage I guess of the Greece thing and looks pretty stupid
For anyone knew who wants to know what is happening with this company
This with the selling of their loan book, which I believe could now be anytime, per company guidance, shorts are hoping for amnesia?? The company will be trading less than 1B market cap with no debt net the cash after the portfolio sale..The company has had multiple upgrades and price target increases....looking for a big reversal here as shorts were covering at 42..I'm pretty sure they will be covering pretty hard down here..
The idea of a common currency is that less productive states are buoyed by more productive states. Imagine if the U.S. currency depended on the output of New Mexico, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Mississippi. i does not. The rest of the union keeps those economies afloat by redistributing the wealth generated by California and The Northeast. The E.U. needs to suck it up and understand that they are not all equal players in every regard. There are benefits to having underperforming members. They provide a drag on the currency that makes their economy more competitive as a whole.
The promise of debt relief in the proposal is simply a lie..So is the reduction to 13% VAT.that'sa only for hotels and basic food...everything else its 23% and would make Greek tourism completely uncompetitive
And if you wondering why Greece said no, read the EC proposal. It asks for a 23% VAT on restaurants and tourism on the Greek Islands ( the life blood of the Greek economy). By comparison, Turkey is at 11% I believe. This proposal is so misguided its mind boggling and speaks to who the heck is running the show over at the EC. It would destroy what's left of the Greek economy which GDP is already down 25%. It certainly doesn't speak to a growth plan..so Greece is right. They don't want to be slaves to Germany and have their economy further destroyed
Greece economy the size of North Carolina
1, Banks and stock market close next week in Greece
2. Greek vote to stay in the Euro next Sunday.70% poll shows vote will be yes. After capital controls for a week, it will be 90%. Greece will get their money in 8 days..now if the people surprise and vote no due to mass insanity, then that's different story
3. Nobody cares about Greece anyway..non event for market until 8 days from now
there will be no bad provisions after the portfolio sale whether there is flow agreement or not
140 units by end of next year so 4 more years to get to 200 units and 3B in revenues is actually light..road map is for 500 units per their numerous presentations so where is your heartburn? All these hedge funds have a five year time horizon..the stock will be 200 by then..all you have to do is hold..
1. Previous high way back in 2013 was 80..same float and double the revenues now and triple the revenue in 12 months..
2. Avg FICO up to 620 frpm 592 so new loans will cycle lower delinquency rates
3. Cycling against tighter credit policies last year right about here
4. Going against softer and softer comps each month..comps will be north of 6 percent this month
5. They are building 40 new units over the next year and half. That bring retail revenue alone to 2B
6. ROI on new unit growth is very strong so profits will explode after portfolio sale with no bad debt provisions
7. Chart very strong now and shows we are about to break out of resistance after consolidating here with the 10 day moving average proven as long term support and uptrend is similar to 2013
8. We are very close to the portfolio sale. They said by end of the qtr but I believe the deal is close to done.
9. After portfolio sale, there will be 450M in cash and no debt making the net market cap a little over a billion. 10. It appears shorts are starting to unwind positions but no data on this yet.
11. Deeply undervalued...With no debt and this kind of unit/ revenue growth and reduced risk from legacy portfolio, enterprise value should be at least 2.5B-3B (2B+cash) right now as portfolio sale isn't factored in, but is a given at this point.
11. Margins continue to be strong
12. There is a barrier to entry for this niche market bringing security to future margins
Frankly, Wright has done a fantastic job managing through some poor prior decison making by the previous CFO. Five years from now there will be over 200 units and 3B in revenues
Chart looks good to a rise to 50 short term..I think it hovers around there until the portfolio sale and then it is poossible it will break through the long awaited 55 gap fill..Guidance for sale is by end of second qtr but they sounded very far along on the call..I would expect something before July..upgrades to the high 40's says the analysts like the new risk free metrics or elimination of the old loan book but are hovering on the side of cautiion until the portfolio sale happens..if they like what they see, I think upgrades to 60's and 70's will occur..the company is building 40% more units over the next 18 months vs current levels..they have solved the long term deoinquency rate issue with higher zfico scores and getting rid of selling video games and less office related products..comps will stay positve from here rest of the year..May numbers were great
I usually don't make calls on individual day moves, as I believe the stock is on a trajectory to hit old highs of 80 over the next couple of months, but chart looks very healthy for a major move north right here over the next few days...
for insight, please review the cc.Don't surprised to see a deal any time. The past couple of weeks has probably simply been horse trading on price...deal is done
"Percent of bad debt charge-offs (net of recoveries) to average outstanding balance between 11.5% and 12.0%". This number was I believe 15 to 16% in the spring...Also this is the other guidance that is positive for the stock and the reason for the upgrades including positive comps from here:
"We are reaffirming our expectations for the business for fiscal year 2016:
Change in same stores sales to range from flat to up low single digits;
Retail gross margin between 40% and 41%;
Opening of 15 to 18 new stores; and
Closure of two stores."
Portfolio sale will likely happen within the next 30 days eliminating all debt for the company driving the share price way up