ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF Message Board

What makes you think the bull market is over? I actually think the bull market is just beginning and that we're in the beginning stages of a secular bull market and the final stages of a secular bear market that took place from 1999 until now... And considering the strength of this rally, you're really going against the odds by bucking the trend. But if you're bold enough to do so with your money, then more power to you. Just be careful because if the VIX heads south to below 15, UVXY could lose a third of its value or more...

Might be a sell the news event, but I think the VIX is pricing in a more hawkish stance as investors are nervous. If Fed is accomodative, I'd expect a small selloff in the market, but a bigger selloff in the VIX...

Don't let your bias to the downside distort your view of the market. Let the market tell you what it wants to do and react. Right now, investors are anticipating the Fed will stay accomodative. If the Fed is, then this rally still has legs and another 5%+ pullback may be months away (and as such, UVXY will soon be making new all-time lows)...

I've been trading the VIX proxies for almost 2 years now, and I can tell you that most people who have a gambler's mentality while trading this (actually most do as the high potential returns lure the greedy) have lost BIG, which includes me, thinking they were about to hit the jackpot when the market crashes, but we haven't had a crash in almost two years. And in your analogy, I believe casinos make money because the odds favor them AND because of the gambler's psychology. The mentality of a compulsive gambler' is when I'm down, I want to make my money back, so I gamble more and when I'm up, this isn't my money, so why not gamble more. And due to that mentality, most gamblers end up losing all their money. So I try to be the house by shorting this thing since shorts are almost always favored (95% of the time, contango is present) and not let greed put me in a losing position... Just my two cents on your 2 cents... LOL!

Supply and Demand have little affect on this fund alone as this follows NAV, and NAV is based on front and second month futures pricing. So perhaps money managers hedge by buying VIX options/futures, but their influence won't cause so much divergence from NAV, and even if they do, traders will ensure the arbitrage gap is closed...

Just be careful of a volatility exhale if the Fed delivers what the market wants to hear... VIX has plenty of room to drop and I think the only reason it isn't below 16 after rallying 50 points off the near-term low is because people are nervous about what the Fed may say about tapering as well as interest rates. For that same reason, I think the VIX is pricing in an unfavorable outcome, so I don't think the VIX has too much upside if the outcome is indeed unfavorable...

They're eating bull #$%$! LOL!

If you short VXX, you're taking on the same exact risk as shorting calls, which is unlimited. But I manage my risk very well. I don't sell more than 50 calls, and I have a buy-to-cover order at 23, so I know exactly how much risk I'm taking on, or basically how much I stand to lose. And I'll take my chances rather than fear something that happened 25 years ago. No risk, no reward. But one thing I've learned, don't listen to greed, therefore, I'll play the odds and stick to my short call strategy rather than speculate going long as there will be plenty of time to take advantage of backwardation should the market crash hard...

Exactly! I think the next, and maybe final, leg of the rally will be fueled by bond yields dropping again... Then the reality of QE tapering will really begin to settle in as the economic data improves thus causing another rally in bond yields...

I think we have a slight down day, but hold 1630...

Even I'm surprised by the size of the rally today! Didn't think we'd get past 1625, but bond yields came down and of course the not-so-bad economic data helped...

Hope you sold in the AM... I'm still at a net loss from when I started trading 4 years ago and initially, I was down big on VIX proxies, but the past is the past and I was a moron for going long and hoping for the big crash, but I've learned, perfected my strategy, and being up $40k in 5 months ain't bad.. That number will only grow from here on out, so I could care less about my past losses and bad trades... And my number 1 rule is to never go long VIX proxies (I only buy calls for protection or during backwardation)...

If you saw how many doom and gloomers were buzzing last night on these boards, then you'd know that bears were hungry for a drop below 1600 and the 50 DMA... I think even the Fast Money crew was short the market last night. Pete Najarian and a few others were long VIX proxies...

Just like bears were in for a rude awakening today. And what justifies going long are the returns from other asset classes vs the return on equities as well as good valuations from a PE/PEG perspective...

I make the most money when there's absolute no volatility. Selling options is my game plan... Think we retest highs before we go any lower than 1600 though...

If the market is flat to down a few points tomorrow, I'll take it. Should put downward pressure on the VIX and proxies...

The name of the game is making money, not whether economic policy is right or wrong. I'm here to make money, not complain about how the Fed is corrupting the economy with their massive asset purchases and money printing...

What you're forgetting is the low frequency of runs like that. How many times has that happened since the lows of 2009? I think only twice. Now how frequently has VXX gone down, especially after rallying 10-20%? Here's another question: How many times has the market panic crashed while QE was in effect? Answer is 0. Another question: Why would there be a need for everybody to sell at once? Is the threat of recession on the horizon? Thinking the market will tank because you want it to tank is not going to make the market tank. You have to play the odds, but have insurance in case things don't go your way...

Plus the technical support from the 50 DMA, the round-level 1600 area, and the Lower Bollinger Band on the S&P should hold. Market is oversold relative to the rally and market failed to put in a lower low... Of course the data out today is further indication that the economy is improving. June Swoon could possibly be over...

Not so sure. I feel the Fed will come to the rescue next week and bond yields are dropping, which I expect to continue...