scon keeps falling further and further behind.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
possible, but highly unlikely. jq can't risk letting scon run out of cash waiting for those 2 events happen. he has to raise before. if jq was so sure those events would happen before scon ran out of cash, he wouldn't have filed a shelf. holders of the millions of 2 dollar warrants would exercise on the news and give scon millions in cash.
if so, i will have a good chance at buying in the .70 to .75 are.
won't happen imo. when the shelf becomes effective, scon will issue the news shares withing days of it. that will happen this month. investors in the next raise will want shares at bargain basement prices too, not after the price has run up. i also don't anticipate news on the cable demo wire until late may/early june.
scon has a lot of warrants and options. iirc, they total around 10 to 11 million shares. you need to include those when counting shares outstanding.
imho. jq should have raised before he lowered the warrant exercise price. if he did, he could have raised cash at 2 to 2.25 per share, instead of 1.25. jq is incompetent for not raising cash last year and waiting until they are almost broke to do it. the upcoming dilution just seriously capped the potential upside to this stock.
jq is going to dilute. kopp will never exercise warrants way below the exercise price. the stock is being walked down to the offering price as i type. looking like 1.25.
that statement from the 10-k didn't include the word "late". it said "in 2015". We expect to begin commercial production of Conductus wire in 2015.
further down under "results of operations 2014 compared to 2013, the 10-k states the following: Sales of our Conductus wire were not a significant source of revenue in 2014, but are expected to be a significant source of revenue 2015 and beyond.
longs won't necessarily give up 50%. it's going to depend on how many shares end up getting issued to raise 50 million. if positive announcements are due in the next 3 to 4 months, jq should issue the smallest number of shares as possible in the first raise to keep dilution to a minimum. then raise more money at higher prices after the pr#$%$. have to wait to see how it plays out.
the only way scon drops below a buck is if jq raises all 50 million at once and that won't happen. i'm sure a price and number of shares has already been decided. just have to wait to see what they are.
he won't dilute all at once. maybe use up a third of it at a time. the best outcome for longs would be for jq to raise cash from the shelf after a positive pr. on a positive note, scon is able to raise up to 50 million. there must be some good things going on. if there weren't, scon wouldn't be able to raise any money.
i'm guessing the worst case scenario is 3.5 to 4 million shares at 1.25. a better scenario would be 3 million shares at 1.50. i think scon will need another 2 quarters worth of cash in addition to what they have now to stay in business until they get their new rce machine operational and their wire stage 2 qualified. maybe those 2 things happen before current cash runs out and the stock spikes. then warrants would get exercised and scon takes in a bunch of cash. if it doesn't play out like that, i'll wait for the financing and start buying a month and a half after it's priced. i doubt major news would be announced immediately after money is raised. anyway, i think scon will make it unless jq is a compulsive liar, but there may be more pain in the short term.