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Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC Message Board

mitchad1 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2014 6:30 PM Member since: Feb 13, 2011
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  • Reply to

    divergent

    by epfalcon146 Jul 8, 2014 4:21 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Jul 16, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    I am with you on "no" China. I emailed LGF before last earnings and asked if there was a tentative date, and called a few weeks later. No response to either. Guess it did not make the cut for international films ( there is a limit) showing in China.

  • Reply to

    Mitchad, what did you think of earnings?

    by value_stocks Jun 1, 2014 9:40 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Jun 11, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    Sorry, have been getting an error message the last week or so when trying to access message board.

    I was disappointed and need to go through the whole report. Yahoo said .33, but the release clearly said .42 (Going from memory while typing) on adjusted earnings which is the standard of comparison to the analysts' estimates.

    The timing of when they book things is a big issue for me. Corporate expenses - breakdown on that number? How much of it was stock given out as bonuses - because shares are up 3M even with the buyback. Thought TV was up 18% while the film portion within that number was down due to fewer releases YOY. I guess the good news is they should destroy the next number at least on a % basis over the new estimates for next quarter.

    Still holding the stock. Not sure if a buyback is in cards if they go ahead with theme park. Did not sell into the earnings run-up, but did buy 1/3 of LGF position some ITM June puts afternoon before earnings. On a run-up that big the report would have to be perfect to hold up or advance on the 29+ price. Cashed out on Tuesday when the stock seemed to stabilize and not much more than another $1 downside. 1/2 of LGF position I did covered calls sep 32 and 33's and some dec 36's. Bought the 33's back on Tuesday after earnings. All in all my cost basis is sub $25 on almost 2,000 shares and I do not see the stock coming down to that level without a recession or major market sell-off.

    Assuming they do not screw the company over theme park expenses, the annuity ball for content should just keep getting bigger. Have had worse stocks, and can wait this one out as it is 1 out of 30. Waited 2 years for U.S. Airways to break out, and longer than that for my $5-9 MU stock to go nuts. Will just keep doing calls whenever the RSI gets over 70 and wait for more earnings. Their conference calls are different as they really just tell a story and do not give much color on numbers.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Draft Day Foreign Box Office?

    by value_stocks May 19, 2014 1:27 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 May 19, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    Was asking value because he asked me for mine a while back. Think you are on record for the .70+ already. FWIW my range was .55-.70. But my gut had always said .55, and the reporting for media stocks is a lot different than I am used to versus other major companies. Had said if I am horribly wrong could not see it below .50, but this is the first time I have tried to figure out earnings n this company.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Draft Day Foreign Box Office?

    by value_stocks May 19, 2014 1:27 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 May 19, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    You never said what your expectations are for upcoming earnings announcement. Mine was .55. Interested to see what you came up with for a number.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Earnings Report

    by genetz2003 May 7, 2014 4:01 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 May 12, 2014 11:40 PM Flag

    262+ came from rentrak, deadline Hollywood says 258+. Guess it will sort itself out in next few days.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 12, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    After the weekend ending the 11th (May) Divergent is a little over 262M.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Earnings Report

    by genetz2003 May 7, 2014 4:01 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 May 12, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    May 29th confirmed today as earnings release with CC on the 30th.

    Divergent at 262+M after the weekend. Picked up 10+M internationally with no new territories that I heard about. Japan is the next major market and it is scheduled for 7/12/14. So just a slow grind for the movie over the next umpteen weeks.

    I am looking forward to earnings release ;)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 5, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    Big sigh of release. Both news sources were identical - so I am assuming it was a press release from LGF. Mentioned openings to come on Japan (July 12th) and China.

    Soon... I am now in the camp that it will get to the 300+M range in revenues. No more conspiracy theories for me ;)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 4, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Never read the books, but so far in HGCF the gov't is still in control and movie ends with District 12 being destroyed. If things turn bad for gov't in next leg of HG who is to say it will be one of the "allowed"??? Unless it already is approved?

    You can't see the difference in the two films??? HGCF and Divergent???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 4, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    According to INt'L Bus. Times 2/12/14 China allows 34 Foreign (not just U.S.) films a year and in February the country was thinking of increasing that number to 44.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 4, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    I heard 35 and is it U.S. Or foreign movies??? As I said in May 1st post - the subject matter may not meet state approval.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 4, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    Right now China is not mentioned anywhere as an opening (see May 1st post). I think the only big market left, that has been announced, is Japan in July. Can see 285-290M if that is true, and yes if China is added it should easily get through 300M.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Ridonkulous Spreads again...

    by saram1500 May 1, 2014 2:27 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 May 1, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    Droves? Since 2008 twenty four companies have relocated outside of U.S. It is a lot considering in the period from 1983 to 2008 there were also twenty four companies that relocated outside of U.S. However, "droves" is probably not the right word to use.

    There will be no tax reform before the election, thus the urgency. Sadly, the most common thing I hear ( and it may just be my sources) is the gov't desires to make it more difficult to move - rather than change the tax rates.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 May 1, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    Didn't want to start a new topic. Saw at "deadline" Hollywood-international that divergent opens in Spain and Sweden this weekend. Japan in July. Still no mention of China, and I am beginning to wonder?? China only allows 35 foreign films a year (I am told), and I wonder if the subject matter of Divergent does not suit their tastes given the cultural structure - thus not making the cut of 35.

    Anyway my guess is that the film ends at total worldwide 248+M after this weekend. However, after reading the article in Variety, I am now convinced it is about content rather than movies, DVD, and digital sales. The gross margins for library run around 90% according to the article. Mainly because all the promotion costs are on the leasee. The studio is responsible for residuals and a few other incidental costs.

    Sentiment: Buy

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