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Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC Message Board

mitchad1 68 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 22 minutes ago Member since: Feb 13, 2011
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  • mitchad1 mitchad1 1 hour 22 minutes ago Flag

    BTW For those that believe there are no BAD things ;). Rom 8:28.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 1 hour 27 minutes ago Flag

    Never said perpetually happy - said wonderful.

    Lobotomy.?? LOL. Have an IQ off the charts, graduate degrees, and a very rapid internal processing system. Truth is, your reply was much kinder than I would have given ten years ago.

    I did not think HE existed either, so I get it. Most people do not want God in their lives, so it is easy to attack, worse to ignore. Lifetime is short, eternity is long. If you want the truth, just ask Him to reveal it to you. Often tell parents - I get it, it is your choice. One would think you would want to make that choice based on full knowledge of what you are doing. Even if you decide - not for me - it will be with knowing the consequences. At least you can share with your children the truth so they can make their own decision.

    Anyway, your disbelief is not about me. It is between you and the Creator. You two should talk. He is there waiting to hear from you.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 12 hours ago Flag

    God might agree; religion is only mentioned in Bible half a dozen times. Religion is man's attempt to bridge the gap between himself and God. Faith is realizing it is God who bridges the gap that exists.

    Not the place for this post, but it is Easter. I was an atheist until the age of 48. Very smart, cocky, and sure of everything, and a series of events led me to question that stance. It was not until I got on my knees and asked the Creator of the Universe for the truth that I got my answer. Once you know the truth, the decision is very easy. Once you have experienced God's touch on your heart and soul, you will never be the same. My life the last ten years has been nothing short of wonderful- the peace and joy is incredible. The key is understanding Greek word for faith - means acknowledge, believe, and Trust. It is about family.

    Not a message to try and convert anyone. No sense attacking me, as you cannot possibly change my mind. If you want the truth, just honestly and humbly ask the Creator (not a higher power as you might not like the entity you connect with;) for the Truth. If you seek Him, you will find Him. That is His promise.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    bittorrent will kill lgf

    by wall_st_trendsetter 17 hours ago
    mitchad1 mitchad1 12 hours ago Flag

    Perhaps, but it won't be theaters, it will be library. Movie theaters are still a social event. A place to go. Discount cards, member cards, dates, big screen, get the kids out of house, teen groups, etc. etc....... If you don't buy out the concession stand it is still a reasonable expense for a few hours out of the house.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Draft Day 4/15 number came in strong

    by silvervtmns Apr 16, 2014 2:38 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 22 hours ago Flag

    Been a while, but spring break is pretty much over. Local university has finals in two weeks. Again it is the week over week numbers that are interesting to me. Love to see 210M on this puppy next Monday.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Draft Day 4/15 number came in strong

    by silvervtmns Apr 16, 2014 2:38 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 22 hours ago Flag

    Agreed. However, in Divergent and a few others what was notable was there was very little if any drop-off from the previous Tuesday. Some even had gains week over week.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Draft Day 4/15 number came in strong

    by silvervtmns Apr 16, 2014 2:38 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 16, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    Weird day for box office. Go to boxofficemojo and look at the daily results. The top ten daily movies all had day over day increases ranging from 38% to 103+%. In fact the whole list had positive increases day over day. Tax day- April 15th - is a big movie day??? Some kind of anomaly. Trivia: muppet movie had the 103+% increase. Go figure.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shorts are about to be crushed

    by tjbzack Apr 15, 2014 6:15 AM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 16, 2014 2:36 AM Flag

    BAC/ML has been consistent in saying the decision will be made in the 4th QTR (2014).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 15, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    Note on International: Divergent opens in S. Korea and Brazil this weekend. Countries I have seen mentioned still to go: Spain, Japan, and China. Looks like 100M+ is very doable in foreign markets. Maybe not a big deal this go around other than overages, but will up the ante on next round of rights offerings for 2nd movie in series.

    Got some cheap today on the Ukraine sell-off, and am still a buyer until it goes through my cost basis - 26.92 after today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    divergent success

    by epfalcon146 Apr 9, 2014 4:57 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 13, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    This weekend's foreign numbers seem to be in: 28M for total of 50M. Will be interested to see the country breakdown on Monday. This week Divergent opens in S. Korea and Brazil, with China still to come down the road. I am going to guess International when all is said and done will be 115-120M.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 13, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Adding Expendables 3 to list.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 13, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    Depends. If it turns out that this is around the floor of stock price, than they will look brilliant. Right now, it is important for the psychology portion of stock valuation. Fundamentals and charts being the other two components.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 11, 2014 10:05 PM Flag

    Fabre said the same stuff last year - oops up 30%. You sell more newsletters shouting doom and gloom than if you said it was all good.

    Trin got to 2.35 yesterday, and mcclellan oscillator is way oversold. Sentiment may take this down to the 150 or 200 day moving average.

    I am up this year but have had profits cut from 10.8% at high to 6.7% at close today. Been adding to selective positions at what I consider good prices. Most companies have good growth and solid earnings and some even have dividends that can grow. Did a weighted average PE based on forward earnings and with 30 stocks it came in at 10.8%. It is across the spectrum of markets, but if earnings on my stocks come in, then I am not worried at all about this sell off.

    Note: hold is for above 80, but if it dips in the 70's I am a buyer of more QCOR.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 11, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    Perhaps not, but 35-40 is in the cards. Well, maybe in the cards used in "Now You See Me" ;). Still, that kind of buyout price is reasonable.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 11, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    I cut my teeth in this business as an analyst, M&A work, and then trading and portfolio management in the 80's and 90's. So, I can read financial statements. The difference between you and others you argue with is you look in the rear view mirror, and project forward using that info. Others look forward with different assumptions. Cool, that is what makes markets.

    Said it before, you can not possibly know the future revenue streams of this company. The FINAL numbers are not even in for last summer's movies. Growth in TV and library would make some of your assertions invalid. You may think you have an idea of future movies and how they will do, but it is just your opinion.

    Obviously, we disagree on much about LGF. Fine, again, that is what makes markets. Myself - still building a position with a cost basis around 27.10 and 6.4% of portfolio.

    My floor on an acquisition price would be 35. Realistically it should be be between 35 and 40. Burns reminds me of Doug Parker (former US Airways CEO and now AAL CEO) a few years ago, who made the same statement about being open to consolidation. FWIW my odds on a buyout happening are about 75%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets face it

    by davidrosen999 Apr 10, 2014 1:22 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 10, 2014 9:03 PM Flag

    The TRIN was 2.37 today. Capitulation?? Comparable to mid-march, but still less than end of January. Maybe a day or two more of selling, then a rally. IBB almost touched 200 DMA.

    Did pick up a handful of ITM SPY puts mid-day, because as you said, it did not feel right. Not enough to hurt me if wrong, but enough to make some short term trading profits if sell-off continues.

    Continuing to build positions in five stocks, as I liked the price today for holding till end of year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    QTR and Seeking Alpha Continue to Censor

    by southofwaverly Apr 9, 2014 8:40 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 9, 2014 9:00 PM Flag

    Yeah, they did not take my one and only QTR comment. I did not think mine was as derisive as some others that did get posted. Decided not to read anymore QTR articles so I would not be tempted to post. Right now the shorts are in bad shape, and their attack on MNK is getting killed right out of the box. Their $ losses are the only vindication I need. Profits after taxes on my 1/3 sale of core QCOR holdings went to some good local charities, and I bought a newer "used" car with cash. Old car was 7 years old, so it was a needed purchase ;)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    divergent success

    by epfalcon146 Apr 9, 2014 4:57 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 9, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    Forgot projections. Thought the international was expected to be 100-110M. But that is from memory and not sure.

    My expectations are 160M domestic and 100+ international. Total after six months could be as high as 275M. Expect DVD and digital download sales to surprise to upside, and that premium cable run will be solid revenue. This should set up sequel to be in 300-350M range. Guess it depends on buzz and fan base.

    Note: just want to say LGF, to me, is not a one trick pony. As long as the other revenue streams, other than YA franchise films, show solid growth and potential - than the stock will do just fine. Proportional pay down in debt is a bonus if it happens ;)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    divergent success

    by epfalcon146 Apr 9, 2014 4:57 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 9, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    You know more about this than me, but 70M is the number that has always been quoted as the $ figure on international rights. Box office mojo has the foreign breakdown. It was a staggered roll-out, and by eye-balling it only the U.K. Looks disappointing. The rest of the countries are just not that big a factor. Weekend box office article on mojo says this weekend Divergent opens in France, Germany, Australia, Scandinavian countries, and Russia. Have yet to see China on the list or mentioned other than it will be down the road.

    Australia might be interesting as Australian Jai Courtney (latest Die Hard)movie) is in Divergent.

    70M as I understand it is a bunch of individual deals with countries. That number came out before the signing of the German deal. Have also heard there is more money for LGF if certain revenue numbers are met in a country (some or all?). My guess is they will exceed 70M, but may miss in some countries. If not, then they take less next time, forego rights money (not their M.O.), or the number may be higher - lower for some countries, but more for others. Really no way of knowing.

    Bought this stock because of the huge pullback from high, and stayed with it because of what I thought was a great conference call after last earnings. Have had success in the past building large positions in companies with a beaten up stock price where I really like management that has a well thought out plan. May take a year but I am patient, and I am confident that the core position will return greater than 30% by end of year, and anything more by trading options around it or surprise movement in price will be gravy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What I don't like about the buyout

    by goldtean Apr 8, 2014 9:46 PM
    mitchad1 mitchad1 Apr 8, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    BAC/ML has been bullish on Irish specialty pharmaceuticals for a few months, they dropped coverage of QCOR after merger announcement, but they raised their Price Target on MNK from 76 to 81. They like the deal and see it adding 2.12 to 2015 earnings. New MNK 2015 earnings are forecast at 6.37 which is a 2.12 bump. Throw whatever multiple you want on that eps. Usual risk disclaimers on QCOR to cover their analysis.

    Note: if anywhere near 81 at deal finalization the deal is worth 100+ to QCOR holders. Am a buyer again in limited quantities on dips below 80. If no dips will just hold what I have left of my core position. Sold 1/3 @83+ and sold some Jan 90 calls for 5.50, and have about 45% of former core position unhedged.

    Sentiment: Buy

OZM
12.55+0.05(+0.40%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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