Posted before that Merrill is modeling in a $600M fine payable late 2014 or early 2015 up from $400M before the CC. That is probably high due to the conservative nature of analyst. PO is now 84 and would have been 88 without the modeling increase in fine. Anything significantly less than that would cause an automatic PO increase.
Haven't been around as much as I have made a lot of money trading around my core position of 2,000 shares since being in the stock at 19+ off the bottom. Have never been underwater on the stock and I guess I got complacent on last earnings announcement. Very disappointed at the sniping going on recently, but willing to hold the stock for a while longer to see where things settle out in the short term.
Disclaimer: will still trade the stock buying in 50's and selling in 60's. Core position now has 10 in the money puts and 5 sold calls out of the money (Jan and April). My cost basis is now up to 30, but I am comfortable with position at the moment.
Merrill Lynch is modeling in a $600 million dollar fine increase of 200M after conference call. They still have it as a buy and raised price target to $84. Comment was that if not for the increased participants in investigation the price target would have been $88. Also raised 2013 eps to 5.62 not yet reflected in yahoo estimates. Bought a little more today in the 50's and sold some end of the year 75 calls. Regret not selling some of position into earnings, but that is life, as stated by others - thought all this was baked into price.
Depends on what prompted the original investigation - letters or phone calls from concerned citizens, doctors contacting the Feds, or doctors being prompted to complain by aforementioned concerned citizens. If something was not right in the above scenarios, then perhaps the "earlier" probe has taken a different direction?
As I have no idea, I attempted to describe the situation in very general terms. However, I think you can imagine the road I am going down.
Shouldn't, but who knows? The merger will go through and we will see $23 soon enough this year. Unloaded all my trading shares and just have core position. Third of that will be called away at 23 by end of year, and I will probably go out a ways and sell 30's on the rest, and call it a day for the stock. Stock will end up being a 4-5 bagger for me, and that is a good three year return :). Looking forward to earnings tommorow.
On any good news regarding settlement talks the stock should break into that 18.50-19.00 range which is where I will unload my trading account shares accumulated at 15.50-16.50.
Well, you are entitled to your opinion, but have no idea what you are basing it on other than wishful thinking. Odds for merger are greater than 90% IMO.
Just holding again, and I still give the odds for a merger at over 90%. By productive I assume you mean that any concessions to DOJ would not be too damaging to earnings.???
Most traders do use the 14 day RSI and it is as you say @ 44.96. More important to me is how the stock immediately pushed off the 50 day moving average and did not go into the gap on wend. Loaded back up to almost what I had before the last earnings as I sold all those shares between 65 and 70 last earnings report. Will keep adding below 65 if they allow it to stay there. Really just see this as a gift and a place to put my excess cash that I have been getting from trimming other positions the last six weeks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Been adding down here below $64. Also have Merrill account. Have received no notice or flag indicating restricted trading. My account at ML is not a margin account.