I - lay out the numbers. I - do not make them up. Now - they are either right or wrong.
Yes - only one ship got scrapped at 16 years old. Then there is the 19 year old ship and the two 20 year old ships.
As an almost 60 year old man - I am happy to see that I still have the #$%$ to be considered to be a mere "petulant teenager that got dumped by his girlfriend." Oh the day!
As far as numbers - they are what they are and they are not a matter of "belief." 1 and 1 = 2; although I do have to acknowledge that the square root of -1 is an imaginary number.
Now one can believe what they want to.
I, as an old relic, still believe that ships sail off the end of the earth.
It's a myth that Indians killed him at Mactan - that was only a cover story.
Just another lie told by the 1%ers who control all media!
Why not mention the price of SB-pC or D?
Do you know why SB-pB is different from the C or D shares?
Why not mention the fact that SB management has rolled over debt till 2011-2?
Meanwhile NM is facing a debt mountain in 2019...
Thier only proactive step was to cut the distribution on the common to zero!
And just why is that 2019 debt currently trading for only 26 cents on the dollar?
No one knows - thus the uncertainty...
Will it be bad - awful - or catastrophic?
Too bad Angeliki is dodging the #1 issue for NMM. Maybe she knows the outcome.
However, she has chosen obscurification over clarification!
Your average ship life of 25 years just got cancer.
Read the Compass Maritime Weekly Report. A 1999 ship got scraped. That's only 16 years!!!
On the CC they said they have the cash to make it for 3 more years even in this bad market. So either things turn around by then - or it's lights out.
They are expecting for the scrap rate to double this year. The Compass Maritime Weekly Report indicates they will be right.
Your argument fell apart as soon as you said this - "and are projecting $80 million in free cash flow for this year"
I used the actual numbers and not make believe projected numbers.
Projected numbers are as useless as Angeliki's promise that the distribution was good for 5 years. A lie that she told twice in a row.
Projected numbers are as useless as Pro Forma DCF. How'd that work out?
No one knows if it's oversold. The price may still be way too high.
It all depends on HMM. Here's a likely case although not the worst case:
HMM forces a severe 60% haircut. That would be be a loss of $10.4M.
Forcing NMM into a loss of $7.8M - $10.4M = -$2.6M per quarter. A 3 cent per share loss per quarter or a 12 cent loss per year.
Instead of lying, what if Angeliki had told the truth?
Well here it is:
HMM accounts for 28% of revenue. Total revenue was $53.3M. Meaning that $15.5 was from HMM.
Net income was $7.8M.
So let's make assumptions.
HMM forces only a 30% haircut. That would be $15.5M / 3 = $5.2M. Net income would go from $7.8M - $5.2M = $2.6M per quarter
HMM forces a more sever 60% haircut. That would be twice the loss or $15.5M - $10.4M. Forcing NMM into a loss of $7.8M - $10.4M = -$2.6M per quarter
Everything rides on how big the haircut will be. Too bad Angeliki won't let us know what it is. NMM could actually be a buy.
Who knows, after 2018, if NMM can roll over their debt, it could be a 10 bagger. Of course it could go to zero well before that. Best to be patient and watch from the sidelines for now.
It's for debt - not for purchases. From Moody's:
Moody's nevertheless views positively the recent decision by Navios Partners to fully cut its dividend, after a first cut by 50% in November 2015, which will result in the company no longer paying dividends and preserving cash (Navios Partners paid a $132 million dividend in 2015). This will give the company the ability to build a cushion to cover for the next two years' debt maturities ($58 million in 2017) and for potential further underperformance of its dry bulk operations. This cash cushion would also cover for any potential revenue loss from its largest customer, Hyundai Merchant Marine Co., Ltd (HMM, unrated), which is undergoing a liquidity crisis and accounted for 23.1% of Navios Partners' revenues in the nine-month period to September 2015.