Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Targa Resources Partners LP Message Board

mizesaw 330 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Nov 8, 2008
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    CC Analysis Part 1

    by mizesaw 18 hours ago

    How did I get 65%? Because I allowed that with higher rates their profit sharing would be more. See the CC where they talk about that. However, you could be correct.

  • Reply to

    CC Analysis Part 1

    by mizesaw 18 hours ago

    Agreed!

    Angeliki is doing a superb job considering all the negative factors she has to deal with.

  • Reply to

    CC Analysis Part 1

    by mizesaw 18 hours ago

    Yes, including the Fulvia, there could be a $10M hit in Q3. DCF coverage of only 65%?

    Q3 just continues to look worse and worse. However, I'm still betting that unless BDI collapses again, Angeliki will find a way to claim 104% coverage in Q4.

  • Reply to

    CC Analysis Part 1

    by mizesaw 18 hours ago

    Part 3

    I just realized that I missed something, so I want to add it in. In Q3 not only will there be a $5M loss on the Samsung, there will again be a $3M loss on dry docking:

    "...My next question relates to the dry docking, how much more of the front-end loading the dry docking program should we expect in the back half of this year?

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Angeliki Frangou, Navios Maritime Partners LP - CEO [24]

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We have another 7 vessels in Q3, I think that was a very good strategy, having the financial flexibility to actually do the dry docking on the lower part of the side of the earning capacity, made possible to reduce your loss in revenue, and secondly, you've got 5 years certificate without having the ballast water treatment CapEx. So I think there is a twofold benefit, and I think and Navios Partners took the opportunity to really fully develop the strategy doing 7 vessels in Q2 and 7 vessels in Q3."

    Notes: Ouch! DCF coverage for Q3 could be as low as 70% unless significant profit sharing at higher rates offsets it. Looks great for a trade though. Horrible Q3 with panic selling followed by a 104% DCF surprise in Q4. Another 30% move again?

  • Reply to

    It's always the same

    by boraisinora 16 hours ago

    That's because they consider you as good as dead as they do their deeds.

  • Reply to

    LINE

    by mizesaw 20 hours ago

    The comparison isn't BETWEEN LINE and NMM. Its about NMM being in baskets of stocks that include other stocks such as LINE that are being traded as one. In such a situation the individual merit of a stock just doesn't matter. One bad apple sicks the lot.

    Do an overlapping chart comparison of NMM and NGLS and they are identical. The only thing they have in common is that they are high dividend payers that are being traded as one.

  • Reply to

    LINE

    by mizesaw 20 hours ago

    Sorry then. I guess i was just too sensitive. I do always attempt to give a fair and balanced opinion and then get attacked as being as a SHORT for doing so. Please forgive me.

  • Reply to

    CC Analysis Part 1

    by mizesaw 18 hours ago

    Part 2

    $5M hit on the Samsung:

    “First of all, on the Samsung Logistics default, just for clarification, Angeliki, the $5 million of potential maximum exposure that you thought you might have, is that net of the insurance coverage, or that is inclusive of the insurance coverage that you have?
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Angeliki Frangou, Navios Maritime Partners LP - CEO [22]
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    This was a full mitigation of the insurance and everything that is impact.”

    Note: that is even worse than the “temporary” $3M hit on dry docking this quarter – next quarter still looks like $0.13.

    Note: notice, as always, that the big Analysts asked all the questions and that they were “out of time” for us little folk.

    Final Analysis: Looks as if NMM remains a trading stock for me. 50% trading still beats 17%, although those buying near $10 should do well long term unless China or something else causes a world-wide correction. If NMM really sells off as BDI continues to soar, I will change my opinion on taking a longer term position though.

  • Pro Forma – “for the sake of form”
    Pro Forma is a guesstimate of if A and B happens then C.

    Now I previously assumed that when Pro Forma was mentioned it was for the year, but now Angeliki has clarified that it applies only to the fourth quarter in the CC:

    “Angeliki Frangou, Navios Maritime Partners LP - CEO [6]
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    And just to add something to Stratos, you have to realize and I think we added a page in page 5 on our presentation, the recovering environment on the dry bulk can provide quite a substantial improvement on our unit coverage. For every 2,000 that we get above on profit sharing which is about $5.6 million for 2015, you can automatically improve by 15% your pro forma coverage.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Amit Mehrotra, Deutsche Bank - Analyst [7]
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Right. So Stratos, the fourth quarter run rate pro forma coverage should be at that 1.04 times, right?
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Stratos Desypris, Navios Maritime Partners LP - CFO [8]
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Correct. I mean, even if the market continues to improve, and we see the profit sharing, this might be even higher.”

    My notes: Yes if BDI holds, there is no dilution, and no ships are dry docked. But I think Angeliki will make it happen so that she can claim 104% coverage in order to do another secondary next February. Nice Dec. to Feb. trade?

  • Reply to

    i guess

    by larry2607 Jul 21, 2015 9:25 PM

    Look at LINE today. Stocks are not isolated entities. They move as a herd and the herd is going over a cliff!
    The best one can do in such situations is to sit on ones hands and watch safely from the sidelines.

    When there is a PANIC get out of the way. Then after the last buffalo has stampeded over the cliff - it is again safe to walk the prairie and buy.

  • Anyone see LINE today - down 26% because they are eliminating their dividend. What were once safe dividends are disappearing. That is one of the big reasons for the drop in NMM this year; since it is part of many high dividend indexes, ETFs and mutual funds that are selling off hard!

    A recent news quote:

    "Exchange-traded funds that employ a variety of strategies to invest in dividend-paying stocks have been a no-brainer since the financial crisis, as income investors have confronted artificially low interest rates. But after years of inflows that swelled assets to $100 billion, dividend ETFs have seen an outflow of $2 billion this year. If that isn't quite apocalyptic, it is scary, and if it keeps up, this will be the first year of outflows ever."

    If you want to do an interesting experiment, call up a one year chart of NMM on Yahoo and compare it to NGLS. Although they have nothing in common, the charts are identical!

    A rising tide raises all ships and the converse is also true. Right now there are the headwinds of collapsing commodity prices, the fear that the Chinese stock market is going to collapse in imitation of our own Great Depression and fear over QE ending along with rising rates.

    Now fear does create opportunity as it did in 2009 and NMM does seem to be getting unfairly sold off. It does seem that, unless China does collapse creating a world wide depression, that it can cover 85% of the distribution or pay say 14% - which is high in what is basically a deflationary environment.

    Therefore, although I am now out of NMM, it is near the top of my watch list. I am now 100% in cash and waiting to buy SDS to short the market within the next few weeks since the charts look absolutely horrid to me - especially market breadth. But if I see capitulation selling in NMM as we had in late March - I'll take another shot with NMM.

  • Reply to

    Surprise! We went red

    by sambo2smoke Jul 30, 2015 2:15 PM

    I sold everything. I remember how BAC slammed the stock on their last big miss and I'm afraid that others could well downgrade it after this one. I agree that one will get the chance to re-buy near $10 in the next few months.

  • Reply to

    Surprise! We went red

    by sambo2smoke Jul 30, 2015 2:15 PM
    mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    One can't indicate 104% coverage while time after time coming up with less than 80 with current market conditions being what they are. Everyone is worried about a Chinese crash after all.

  • Reply to

    DCF Coverage

    by mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 12:35 PM
    mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Pro forma means ... well IF only ! But the 0.8 X is all they really had as they admit. And as I expected, the market does not like it.

  • Reply to

    DCF Coverage

    by mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 12:35 PM
    mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    If your calculations were right then they wouldn't be claiming only 80% coverage.

  • mizesaw by mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    DCF coverage is only 77% this quarter -

    29.3 / 38.1

    Normalized, adding back in the 2.8M for dry docking, it is 85% -

    29.3 + 2.8 = 32.1 / 38.1

    I will continue to ignore whatever is claimed about 104% DCF coverage since it never seems to show up in reported actual earnings ... which are the ones that count.

    So next quarter 85% coverage might be achieved if they don't continue to dry dock vessels or come up with some other excuse.

  • Reply to

    Distribution coverage in Q2

    by marek602 Jul 30, 2015 8:10 AM
    mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    Stopped out. I will wait for under 10.25 again. I still expect a general market sell off in the next two months.

  • mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    I saw $0.19 before on Yahoo, but now they say $0.18. Some say $0.17. Pick a number I guess!

  • Reply to

    Distribution coverage in Q2

    by marek602 Jul 30, 2015 8:10 AM
    mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    We'll see - the day isn't over. But there could be a run up to the distribution followed by a sell-off. That's why I didn't sell everything.

  • Reply to

    Distribution coverage in Q2

    by marek602 Jul 30, 2015 8:10 AM
    mizesaw mizesaw Jul 30, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    The pro forma is a lot of if ands and buts. There is no way to actually tell if it is meaningful or not. Next quarter they could again come out with 80% DCF coverage while claiming a bunch of temporary circumstances that are preventing 104% coverage. I sold half of my position today since I didn't like the report. Here is how the media is reporting this:

    "Navios Maritime Partners misses by $0.04, misses on revs (NMM) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.13 per share, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.17; revenues rose 2.4% year/year to $56.5 mln vs the $60.36 mln consensus."

    I've got a stop-loss in on my half position just in case. We will see if investors look ahead or if they focus on the big miss.

NGLS
37.45-0.82(-2.14%)3:56 PMEDT