No I haven't attempted to estimate their cash position. But I agree with you that it should show improvement.
I didn't see the Samsung writedown they were talking about taking. Will it be in the 4th quarter instead?
I'm feeling good about next year. Angeliki made her 5 year promise which I don't believe. But one has to believe they can keep things going for 2 or 3 years at least even under current conditions.
Next year I will be watching the BDI closely. No one can really predict what it will do, but maybe it is making a double bottom right now?
I'm still only frightened about 2018. They've got a lot of debt to roll over then and that will be hard with their current credit ratings.
No one knows. It all depends on shipping rates. Right now both shipping stocks, energy stocks, and mining stocks are suffering from historic low rates. Everyone hopes that things will return to "normal." But no one really knows. All anyone can say is that such industries are cyclical and that hopefully the bottom is near and that a recovery will come within the next few years.
If not, then yes, in three years NM could be toast.
The stock isn't falling because of Shorts. It is falling because Longs are bailing. No self-respecting fund manager wants to show NM as a holding on their annual reports. No one wants to admit to their investors that they rode this stock down 80%.
Depends on a dividend cut. They don't need to cut the dividend, but since everyone expects them to, maybe they should. At least that would create a nice buy point. They announce, the stock drops for a few days, and then puts in a bottom.
Other than that, all you can do is sit on the sidelines awaiting a bounce. A move up always starts with that first day after all...
I don't know about ATLS and ARP, but I do know about NM and NMM. The DCF coverage on NMM was only about 60% so no wonder they had to cut. NM just got a debt downgrade yesterday from S&P.
Meanwhile SDLP has 150% coverage. Sure they will have to cut someday if oil doesn't recover, but there seems to be no rush.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered to 'B' from 'B+' its long-term corporate credit rating on Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM). The outlook is negative.
At the same time, we lowered our issue rating on the company's senior secured debt to 'B+' from 'BB-'. The recovery rating is unchanged at '2', reflecting our expectation of substantial recovery (in the higher half of the 70%-90% range) in the event of a payment default. We also lowered our issue rating on the senior unsecured debt to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. The recovery rating is unchanged at '6', reflecting our expectation of negligible recovery (0%-10%) in the event of a payment default.
The downgrade reflects our expectation that Navios Holdings will post lower-than-expected operating profits for 2015, resulting in credit metrics that will fall short of our guidelines for the rating. The persistently weak charter rates and uncertain outlook for the dry bulk shipping industry prompted us to revise downward our charter rate assumptions for 2015-2016. Given this environment, we believe that Navios Holdings will not be able to turn around its credit measures in 2016 as previously expected. Dry bulk ship operators face the lowest charter rates seen in the last 20-30 years, as supply growth continues to outstrip demand growth. This has been aggravated recently by significantly weakened commodity imports from China, which is by far the largest global importer of iron ore and one of the largest importers of coal. Because there is no immediate demand-side stimulus and supply-side relief (as the impact from the accelerated scrapping will be likely wiped out by new vessel deliveries), we forecast that there will be no rebound in charter rates in 2016.
I made so much money on my NM-H shares that I decided to dip my toes into the water and buy NMM today. Just 3000 shares though as a test. I think that after they announce the distribution next year they will hit at least $5. We'll see.
S&P downgraded their debt from B+ to B today and maintained a negative outlook. Cutting the distribution was a wise move and let's hope they can find other ways to cut costs. But only an upturn in DBI can save them.
All stocks, except those going bankrupt, are great buys at the right price. Buying "Blue Chip" stocks at too high of a price isn't going to save you.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PRICE!
Those who bought NMM @ $15 are hurting. Those who bought it @ $3.50 might have hit the jackpot. It's all a gamble.
BBEPP is a gamble on the survival of BBEP. One is rolling the dice and hoping for a recovery in oil prices in 2017. In they do recover, you've hit the jackpot. If not - you go bust!
Just looked and someone also bought a 30K block of the D shares 5 minutes after the 20K C share buy. So either the company is buying back or a fund is taking a position @ current prices.
Whatever, hopefully it means that prices will either hold at these levels or continue to rise. I'm still expecting a big run after they announce the distribution in Jan. I think the C shares could hit $14 then.
But NM is NMM. They own a huge share, along with owning NNA. NM is well diversified. That's why I bought the preferred shares that are now up 50%. All NM has to do is survive.
Looks as if both NM and NMM are following the typical pattern. Both fell hard for days after announcing a distribution cut and are now recovering.
The big question now is what happens after January?
I'd think it all depends on BDI. Any recovery at all could support the price. One wonders if grain shipments might add a boost as they did last year? The only problem with that of course is that BDI will again plunge after grain season unless coal and iron recover - not likely.
Cool - let's get it down to $0.85 for a 100% return. Just think - all they'll have to do is make it one year and one will get their entire investment back. If they make it two years - one will double their investment!