I think we should have a lot of faith in BAC. After all, we did have earnings of $0.13 when $0.19 was expected. Although personally, I was only looking for $0.16.
Now as far as buying @$11 - that's a personal choice for one to make. As for myself, I need a 20-30% cushion since I'm an extreme bargain hunter.
Right now the stock is stuck in a $10 to $13 range, and with the BAC downgrade, maybe now $12 is the top. As you say, it is going to take some good news in the future. And I expect that the good news investors want to see is an earnings report with 100% DCF coverage instead of what is somewhere between 70-80%.
I did not like the last earnings report. I didn't like the CC. And I did not like the response I got from Laura Yagerman at NMM who first happy talked me while ignoring my very specific questions about the earnings report and then ignored me when I again asked to have them answered.
As for your faith in advisors and trusting in their Fiduciary responsibility - I share no such faith. They are mainly interested in earning fees for themselves. One has to look out for ones self.
Most of us believe that current low prices are temporary, just as they were in 2009. Most of us believe that eventually the BDI index will recover from its lows. Most of us have faith that Angeliki will continue to provide exceptional management. Most of us believe that the distribution will continue, even if it is partly return of capital, since even in 2009 it never got cut.
What we don't know is the when - which could be years. And we don't know how low the price could go. If BAC is right about $12, then a new range of $9 to $12 is possible, especially if there is a general market crash. Although with all the Central Bank money still sloshing around the world - that seems unlikely.
The real key isn't: are they paying the dividend - it is how are they paying the dividend. Paying out a dividend via earnings is much different than via return of capital.
"Only in China" is the way to express it. In China the operations do have value. However, the empty US shell has none. The value in the US is ZERO. Yes "they have" equity, but you don't.
Anytime they want they can simply go dark as CSKI, LTUS and WKBT did. And now it seems that even SKBI is. When that happens US investors are lucky to get a few pennies while the Chinese run off with all assets free and clear.
Since NM is the parent and NMM is dependent upon them, it is important to see what their earnings are. I will be especially interested in checking to see if they play accounting games as they did when reporting NMM earnings. Let's hope not.
Ren got $30M in the secondary and I couldn't find out how much he got in the IPO. So $100M isn't out of the question.
As far as leaving cash around to be confiscated - of course Ren isn't that stupid. No he put the money into secret bank accounts that will never be traced back to him.
I don't know why you keep talking about the stock when I am talking about Ren. Of course the stock is worthless. But Ren is a very very rich man. His scam was highly successful!
NMM and NM and DSX or in the same sector and rise and fall together.
And the 1.04 coverage is an exaggeration as is the claim that the current coverage is 0.80. None of us could see how they came up with that figure. Can you?
And when I asked the company how they came up with such figures they refused to answer.
It happened in both Dec. and March. Why not a third time? Especially with the horrible earnings report and the exaggeration about 104% coverage when it is likely less than 80%.
Look at DSX and NM getting hammered today. Everyone is still running from this sector since the turn around still isn't for at least a year ... if not two or three.
For another example look at CVRR. When oil prices crashed fund managers sold everything oil related which created a great opportunity for we contrarians.
Also one might add that index funds can also be blamed for distortions in individual stocks.
So Seiden has the US shell company - SCEI and has an empty Chinese shell company TSCE. But TSCE isn't legal yet in China since its "chop"less. And to add insult to injury Ren is still the head of the empty Chinese shell. No one knows if there are any assets left. And Seiden doesn't have access to any "financial information."
You say that the company is "Almost Back in Business!!!" when all there is is continued legal maneuvering and press releases.
The following is a press release from Standard & Poor's:
-- We expect Marshall Islands-registered shipping company Navios Maritime
Holdings Inc. will see constrained earnings in 2015 and 2016 on persistently
weak drybulk shipping charter rates.
-- This issue, combined with the company's partly debt-funded investment
in new vessels and the logistics business, mean that we expect that Navios
Holdings will not achieve credit measures commensurate with a 'BB-' rating.
-- We are therefore lowering our rating on the company to 'B+' from 'BB-'.
-- The negative outlook reflects our view that Navios Holdings might not
be able to improve its core credit measures to a rating-commensurate level if
the depressed charter rate conditions persist.
There's a lot of love here - at the right price.
Nice ride from $10 to $13 after all. So now we wait for the ride from $9 to $12 that starts in a month or so.
Angeliki is doing a great job considering that DBI has dropped by 60%. She has shown incredible foresight by switching to the container ship market.
However, no matter how heroic, she still can't keep the company from taking a hit. Last quarter the company missed earnings expectations by 20% and this quarter by 30%. And believing that the company will hit the $0.19 mark next quarter after having only $0.13 this quarter seems a stretch; as does hitting $0.21 in the fourth quarter.
While a 16% yield sounds nice - it isn't when 20% or so is return of capital. And after the next secondary offering what will it be - 30%?
I still believe that the stock is headed under $10 again myself and may even hit $9. With a $12 price target the upside is less than 10% from here and the downside risk is 20%. Doesn't sound like good odds to me. We've got 3 months until the next quarter, so I can be patience while taking a wait and see attitude.
Until BDI recovers, which evidently even Angeliki believes will not be this year or she wouldn't have locked in rates, its rough sailing ahead.
The real problem with BAC, as with most Analysts, is that they react instead of predict. They had a $14.50 target and then only lowered it to $12 after NMM had a huge miss. They are trend followers - not trend predictors.
Yes, but BAC had a $14.50 price target before the huge earnings miss. That leads me to believe that other Analysts should come out and downgrade too.