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Targa Resources Corp. Message Board

mizzou1966 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 18, 2015 5:29 PM Member since: Sep 4, 2005
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  • With the intra-day low ow 88.36 and subsequent rebound, TRGP may have put in a triple bottom. Next key pint is 93.53 which is the current 50-DMA. A couple of weeks ago, TRGP broke above and then back below the 50-DMA. One key was that the MA was and still is declining; however, with positive price action, TRGP is positioning to potentially both move above the 50 day and for the MA to move up or at least go flat. This will be interesting because we recently had both negative (secondary offering) and positive (updated presentation) and the net effect on the share price was negative. I see little to really boost the stock until maybe the next dividend announcement (due in mid to mid-late April). Also note: At today's low, TRGP yield once again reached slightly above 3.5%. Based on the projected dividend increases for 2015, I'm looking at a dividend ~4.10 within 13 months and a yield (based on today's low) of ~4.6%. Disclosure: TRGP is my largest holding. Rate TRGP a BUY when the yield is in the 2.6-3.4% range. Yield was at 3.37% at today's close of 92.

  • Reply to

    Help me Understand this move !!!!

    by shorty_bigtime Mar 17, 2015 3:01 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 17, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    Cramer had the CEO on his show.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    NGLS is Hurting!

    by milecourse11 Mar 5, 2015 12:39 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 13, 2015 10:09 PM Flag

    Just relax. There will be some turbulence with the ATLS midstream buyout, low energy prices, and all the financing, and refinancing. It may take another quarter or two for the performance to clearly stand out. I'm looking for at least a 2% increase in the next NGLS distribution and ~6% increase for the TRGP dividend. With its 3.25 million plus share offering, TRGP will be buying some $53 million of NGLS with about ~19% of the proceeds. Both TRGP and NGLS should settle down and show nice last eight months of the year price increases once the dividends/distribution continue solid quarter over quarter increases. NGLS a is STRONG Buy; however, I generally do not buy MLPs...only GPs of MLPs. TRGP is my number one holding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Aquired some TGRP via the Atlas merger___

    by eusdond Mar 2, 2015 4:45 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 13, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    Good comments. I love both TRGP and PAGP. TRGP is my number 1 holding. Numbers 2-4 are PAGP, AAPL, and GILD. Planning to hold all four for the longer term. Looking for a 25%+ dividend increase for TRGP and ~21% for PAGP based on the dividends declared for 2016 results (basically one quarter delayed or May 2015 compared to May 2014 annualized rates).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Aquired some TGRP via the Atlas merger___

    by eusdond Mar 2, 2015 4:45 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 13, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    First off, you know to know (and acknowledge) two points: (1) TRGP is not a an MLP, it is a GP (general partner of NGLS which is the MLP) and (2) TRGP has raised its dividend by 25-30%...every year...and looks to continue these increases for the next 2-3 years. Let's look at these two points and some other items. Any one who is trades TRGP is probably in the wrong stock. TRGP is one to understand, follow every news release/presentation, and see if it meets its metrics. Based on recent price (89.20) when I started this note, TRGP's yield is at 3.47%. With the normal 6.% increase (expected) in April, TRGP's annual dividend should be around 3.28, for a 3.67% yield. If you extrapolate the increases out to Arp 2016, the dividend should be in the 4.14 area, for a 4.64% yield. TRGP dividend (an stock appreciation) is set to grow by about 3 times that of the underlying MLP. If you want the big yield, buy NGLS or another midstream MLP; on the other hand, if you want total return, TRGP is an excellent vehicle. I'll have another note on TRGP nearing an important bottom...later today. GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Feb 28, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Glad to have the Atlas Energy deal completed. It may take 3-6 months to get a real handle of the new company. IMO, TRGP will be much stronger. Yes, when there is uncertainty, the price will remain depressed. However; when many more cards are on the table...the price will be significantly higher. I am looking doe a 4.00+ annualized dividend for the 1Q16 period (announced in April 2016). With a target yield of 3%, that would equate to a 133.33 price target (or +33.9% plus dividend) in less than 16 months. I'll take that. Personally, my April 16 target is higher; 143 (or about a 2.8% yield). TRGP is far from a one trick pony. They have recently signed deals that will kick in major projects in 2016-17. My major hope: TRGP and NGLS remain independent and do not get bought out (by KMI?). I'm on a BUY below 105 and a strong buy under 90. BUY to me means I'll add shares monthly with new cash. A strong buy means I will consider selling other stocks/options to free up buying power to add more shares. Disclaimer: TRGP is my number one holding. Either TRGP or ATLS (to get more TRGP shares) has been my largest holding since summer 2013.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    ATLS.WI

    by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 24, 2015 11:12 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    ATLS wi trade down a fraction most of the day and closed down .01. Just one more day, till the transaction is completed (at least on paper). Will be so glad to have this behind us.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Did anyone go long/short?

    by harmlessmoth Feb 25, 2015 7:43 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    I gambled and used a lot of margin. It will pay off Monday or early next week. Will use all the cash to pay back the margin debt. I could do this because of the strong belief in Targa Resources. TRGP had been my number one holding until I sold some shares to buy ATLS and then really loaded up on ATLS the past two months. My holdings will in the new ATLS will decrease by ~84% compared to my current ATLS value. Even this is way over weighted, so I may or may not sell 1/2 to 1/3 of my new ATLS shares over the next few days/weeks/months. A lot depends upon how the stock price acts and TRGP's price action.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Did anyone go long/short?

    by harmlessmoth Feb 25, 2015 7:43 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    Shorting TRGP (especially when it was under 90) would have been flat out dumb. Yes, I bought a lot of ATLS when the implied value of the spinco was under 3 (6 now with the 1 for 2 distribution). I will hold the TRGP shares, use the cash portion to pay down margin, and look to sell 1/2 to 1/3 of the new ATLS depending upon how it acts over the next weeks/months and the first few distribution announcements.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Cash distribution

    by joencarl Feb 26, 2015 10:03 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    The new shares (TRGP and new ATLS) and cash could be in the account as early as Saturday, Feb 28, and should be in the accounts by Monday, Mar 2. There could be one to three day delays at some brokerages; hopefully, everything will be complete by Monday or Tuesday, if not sooner. With the arbitrage between the implied value of the new ATLS (9.92) and the trading price of the ATLS wi (10.00) their is only a 0.8% difference, so their is virtually no value in buying ATLS on Friday as an arbitrage play. If you like TRGP, buy TRGP. And, if you like the new ATLS, simplify buy ATLS wi on Friday. Since I've bought my full position of ATLS, I'm not looking to add any more shares tomorrow...and will just wait for the transaction to be completed. FYI, I rate TRGP a BUY and the new ATLS (or ATLS wi) a hold. Note: I think someone screwed up at ATLS. They seeming dropped the projected distribution from 1.10 (based on a 1 to 1 spinco) to .70-.80 for the final spinco ratio (1 new to 2 old). Looking at the math just from the recently revised ARP annualized distribution, it looks like the annualized rate could be in the 1.40 area. If so, the pro-rata rate for Q1 could be in the .30-.35 area. We may get more clarity within the next few weeks or just have to wait the the distribution declaration in late April. ATLS share price go hit when the expected distribution was announced but recovered the next day (probably because cooler heads worked through the math and figured they meant .70-.80 on a 1-1 basis...which works out to 1.40-1.60 on the realized 1 for 2 basis.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ATLS.WI

    by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 24, 2015 11:12 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 24, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    Looking at the numbers: ATLSw (using Scottrade's symbol) closed at 9.50 while the "value" of the spinco imbedded in ATLS was 9.30. That is an implied 2.1% gain until the the transactions are complete after the close Friday and the new ATLS starts trading regular way on Monday. I'll move ATLS back to a "BUY" on any price drop relative to TRGP for the final three trading days. I'd like to pick up another 1600 shares but only on a slight pullback. Disclosure: Own ATLS and TRGP.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    ATLS.WI

    by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 24, 2015 11:12 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 24, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    Hard to find the WI listed. Tried TradeMonster and could not find it. Called them and when on hold for 15 minutes and then disconnected. Called Scottrade and they have it listed as "ATLSw"; note the base symbol is in caps with the w in lower case...no dot in between. With ATLSw (or whatever your broker is using...if they are showing it) closing at 9.50, that explains why ATLS was up nicely while TRGP had a small loss. After I post this, I'll look at the numbers to see whether there is any value left in the arbitrage. For now, I'll go to hold.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I bought

    by eusdond Feb 7, 2015 9:14 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 8, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Make that TRGP in the first sentence.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I bought

    by eusdond Feb 7, 2015 9:14 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 8, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    You should make it back and more if you hold the TRP and new ATLS shares for 12-18 months. I expect TRGP to be back over 140 within 2-3 quarters and the new ATLS to be over 10 with a nice 10%+ distribution. What to do with the large cash portion? If you bought on margin, just pay it off. If not, consider more TRGP, OKE, PAGP, and/or MEMP....depending upon their respective prices. Example, PAGP was weak Friday on a lowering of their 2015 target dividend increase from 25% to ~21% based on 50/bbl oil. OKE is more into nat gas transportation, and purchases in the low 40s should look excellent in a few year. MEMP is an upstream MLP, but thanks to great hedging, the 13%+ distribution looks to be protected for several years. TRGP has been my favorite investment for more the 18 months. Their purchase of ATLS midstream assets with some share and 9.12 of cash was very smart. The share count will increase by less than 25%; hoverer, the asset base will grow by close to 50%. Superb deal for all parties if they continue to hold TRGP and new ATLS shares till well after the dust settles. Keep in mind...aside from the weak energy prices, a lot of TRGP has been sold (driving down the price of ATLS) to buy ATLS shares. On Mar 2 (in just 15 trading days), this play will be over. Then, if you want TRGP (or the new ATLS), you will have to buy it directly. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SA article ATLS & spinoff

    by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 5, 2015 9:23 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 6, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    Thanks for the heads up on the IV post. It was very interesting to hear about all (or at least some) of the wheeling and dealing. I love TRGP and really thing this deal will drive TRGP to 160-200 within a year after the closing. Glad to see all the hard work that is going on to get her done. Had a nice wound number of shares of ATLS, but went and bought 2300 more on the mild pull back today. Implied value of new ATLS at today's close: 4.06 (27.1% yield on expected 1.10 annual distribution).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Rounded out my position heading into the exchange on Feb 28. Will add the new TRGP shares to current stake, hold new ATLS for at least a few quarters, and use the cash to pay off margin debt. IMO, if you want the best deal, buy ATLS today or at least soon. The implied value of the new ATLS has been rising and has been in the 3.90 area today. It will keep rising if ATLS keeps acting better than TRGP. Wold not be surprised to see it above 6 prior to the exchange. Remember, probably just 16 trading days left for the old ATLS. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Feb 4, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    With oil back down some 9% today, it was nice to pick up 2K more shares of ATLS (to round out my desired holdings) prior to the x-dividend date (tomorrow) and to set up for the expected exchange on Feb 28. I will be very happy to have this completed adding to my TRGP stake and starting with the new ATLS. Most of the cash will go back to paying off most of the margin debt, but at 3% yearly interest...it was just too good to buy as much as I safely could. I know others are waiting till the last week to buy ATLS for the exchange. My advice: If the price drops significantly tomorrow, or soon after, I'd buy and hold for the exchange. Since ATLS has started to act better than TRGP, IMO, the implied value of the new ATLS is going to keep rising into the exchange. This morning, it was in the 3.90s. It could be in the 5-6 area prior to the exchange. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    is $85 a good entry point????

    by arsesm Jan 29, 2015 10:11 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 2, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    Buy hand over fist if TRGP goes back to 85. There are just 18 trading days left till the buyout and the old ATLS goes away. For several months, investors and traders have been playing a game by selling TRGP to buy ATLS; however, the selling of TRGP has also brought down the price of ATLS. Today was the first time in a long time the TRGP did 0.5%, or more, better than ATLS. At one point, during the afternoon, TRGP was up 1% more than ATLS. I have followed TRGP since July 2013 (18 months) and IMO Targa Resources iInc. is one of the very best MLPs/MLP GPs. My 12-month target: 143 with a 4.00 dividend (2.8% yield). And, that is just a start. I look for a 20-28% dividend increase starting in 2016 for at least the following four years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Merger Question

    by oilngas124 Jan 29, 2015 11:28 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jan 30, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    Good thinking except for selling the covered calls on TRGP. My advice: Put away the TRGP and just forget about it for 5 years plus. The current dividend is 3.10 annually, will most likely got to about 4.00 in a year,or less, and then grow in the 20-30% range for the next four years. Looking at a price of 160 within a year and 200+ in two years. Targa's purchase of ATLS mid-stream properties for minimal stock dilution and the 9.12 cash is brilliant (and accretive both short and long term. I currently have a lot of TRGP and this stake will more than double in just four weeks. I will hold the TRGP long term an the new ATLS for the awhile. As far as the cash, I like the idea of using it to buy the new ATLS, more TRGP, and/or some combination of MMP, PAGP, or OKE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cooperman buys

    by theeseer Jan 14, 2015 7:46 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jan 22, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    TRGP will most likely be in the 160-200 range by Q4. Dividend just increased yesterday by 5.8% from 2.93 to 3.10 annually. I'm looking for the dividend to be at 4.00+ in 1Q16. Targa's price is down mostly on the arbitrage (selling TRGP and buying ATLS). I sold about 2/3 of myTRGP position to buy ATLS. When the deal closes, I'll most likely use the cash to buy the "cheaper" TRGP, OKE, and/or PAGP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TRGP
94.97+0.46(+0.49%)Mar 27 4:03 PMEDT