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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

mizzou1966 109 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 2:52 PM Member since: Sep 4, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Why the deal is unfair to KMP stockholders

    by ommd21117 Aug 12, 2014 12:16 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Sep 17, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Recheck your numbers. Even if you sold all your KMP now and have a zero tax basis, your tax should not be more than ~$55,728 at today's price. Consider selling your KMP, paying the tax, and buying KMR with the balance (~$222,900 available), probably getting a stock dividend in Oct, and then the exchange into KMI...probably in late Q4.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Breakout?

    by stockpicker1970 Jun 23, 2014 8:21 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 2, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Dividend and distribution announcements due early next week. I expect good news with with a 6-7% dividend increase for PAGP. Their target is 25% for the year; my estimate is for 30%...and year end prices of 33.80 for 2014 and 43 for 2015.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 May 14, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    Bought more TRGP today...on the slight price decline. Love stocks that go from the lower left to the upper right (on the chart); it is up more than 25% YTD. Looking for another 15-25% gain this year and nice gains in both dividends and price appreciation in 2015-16. Also, like PAGP under 28. IMO, these two are long term winners. I just add to which ever seems cheaper at the time and then rebalance to keep about the same value in each stock. GL

  • PAGP projected a 25%+ one year dividend increase. They are at +14.4% after only two quarters (that is 30.8% if continued at that rate for a year). How does this relate to TRGP? Well, first TRGP increased 2014 guidance in late March and now another leading MLP GP comes in with higher than expected dividend increase. TRGPs Q4 dividend was .6075. I am projecting the Q1 dividend in the .6488-.6531 (+6.8-7.5% form prior quarter. It should be very interesting when Targa Resources announces the dividend in two weeks (plus or minus a few days). I will continue to add more shares on any pull back into the 90s. I'm at a hold for now, but on the very of a buy almost any lower.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • The Q1 dividend comes in at .17055. This a 6.73% increase over what would have been the (full quarter) Q4 rate and 14.4% over the IPO indicated initial dividend level. PAGP was weak on the day. I saw this as a buying opportunity and added a few hundred. Good chance to get a 20-30% total return (with acceptable risk) of the next 3-5 years. I like to build cash and add to PAGP and/or TRGP on pull backs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • TRGP announced a 6.5% quarterly dividend increase after the close today. This brings the dividend to .6075 quarterly and 2.43 annually. For 2014, starting with the dividend (to be) announced in April, TRGP is projecting a 25%+ increase over the 2013 figure. Note: The projection for 2013 was for a 30%+ increase and it came in at 33%.

    I use a 3.0% dividend yield to project share pricing for TRGP. Current;y, the shares are close to 10% over priced for the indicated dividend. However, with steady 5.75%+ quarterly divid increases, I project a 12-month price target of 101 (based on an annual rate of 3.03 with the January 2015 announcement). This is more than 14% above the closing price (88.13)...for a 12-month (projected) total return of 17%.

    This projected price could be effected by higher (or lower) dividend increases and/or the stock settling in with a higher (or lower) average yield. For the next six months, or more, I will continue to use 3.0% as a baseline yield for Targa to calculate fair value.

    In summary, Targa Resources is a rapidly growing GP of a solid MLP (NGLS) and has stable institutional support, and a very stable share count (~42.1 million). I am long both TRGP and various calendar spreads. My BUY rating is only due to valuation and would go to a Strong Buy on any price drop below 81 through mid-April *the next dividend announcement).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Div increase check it out

    by giday30 Jan 14, 2014 7:20 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jan 14, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    Like the GP, TRGP, much better; 6.5% dividend increase from .57 to .6075.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    i only bet on a sure thing....

    by oilnboil427 Dec 30, 2013 10:13 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jan 1, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    Those interested in options should consider bull calendar spreads (selling the short term OTM calls while buying ITM LEAP calls. Far better return than just holding the units and collecting the distributions or even adding covered call writing. I rate KMP a BUY and KMR a Strong Buy...based on better return and less IRS complications.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Jan 1, 2014 12:40 AM Flag

    Targa Resources has to be one of the best kept secrets in the market. For 2013, TRGP was +66.86% (closing at 88.14 vs YE 2012 price of 52.84. Including the four dividends, the total return for TRGP was a staggering +71.97%. I do not look for the same, or better, returns in 2014. My pick is 98.80 close on 12/31/2014...for a gain of 12.1% (without dividends). This is based on a 30% dividend increase cumulative over the next four dividends (to an annual rate of $2.964) and a 3% yield. Note: The current yield (2.28 / 88.14) is 2.59%...the lowest in corporate history after establishing full quarter dividends. I look for the stock to tread water over much of the first six months of the new year and pick up some momentum in the second half as the dividend is increased 6-7% quarterly. Next dividend announcement should be between Jan 15-21. I maintain a BUY rating and play the Feb 90C/Jul 70C bull calendar spread. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BUY NOW on pullback

    by lawstuff22 Dec 4, 2013 9:25 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Dec 4, 2013 10:12 AM Flag

    Sorry, make the low @51.52.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    BUY NOW on pullback

    by lawstuff22 Dec 4, 2013 9:25 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Dec 4, 2013 10:11 AM Flag

    Hard to double down @51.40 when the daily low (so far) is 51.54.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New 12-month target price

    by mizzou1966 Nov 4, 2013 8:39 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Nov 27, 2013 6:35 PM Flag

    Sold the last 1K shares of TRGP and all my Apr calls and used the proceeds to buy Jul 60 and Jul 70 calls. My short term targets: Mid-Apr 85.39 and mid-Jul 90.50. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The 2014 forecast presentation was posted after the market close. Stock recovered from recent weakness to close +2% of the day. Management set a 25%+ dividend increase target for 2014. That reset my 12-month target to 95. How did I come up with that? Current annual dividend: 2.28. Projected annual dividend Nov 2014: 2.85+. Assuming a 3.0% dividend yield, that results in a 12-month target of 95. Total return could approximate 21.4% price increase plus the 3% dividend for a grand total of ~24.4%. And, this could be conservative. Keep in mind that the forecast for the 2013 dividend increase was +30%+. Looks like the final figure (after the Q4 dividend in announced in January) should be in the 35% area. If the dividend growth is (say) 30% for 2014, then total return could be in the 29% area (and the stock price around 98.80. Targa Resources continues to outperform MLPs, other MLP GPs, and all the MLP ETFs and ETNs. CC is at 9AM tomorrow (11/5/13). Note: I have gone back to a BUY rating after seeing the 2014 forecast and reviewing the Q3 results for the Targa twins. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Oct 27, 2013 7:54 PM Flag

    GOOG (1015.20) has been receiving a lot of attention form the business TV "talking heads." On the other hand, I have never heard TRGP or even NGLS mentioned on TV. Driving back from a college game last night, I though this might be a good time to compare the three stocks since TRGP's IPO on Dec 7, 2010. GOOG is +50%, NGLS (not counting distributions) is +109%, and TRGP (not counting dividends) is +209%. Over the next three years, GOOG could get to 1522. Assuming no dilution, GOOG's market cap would be over $510B. If (or when) TRGP triples (+200%) from Friday's close (79.27), the market cap would be about $10B. IMO, Targa Resources has a much better intermediate term potential than Google. I rate TRGP a hold to weak buy, but did load up on Apr calls for the expected share increase over the next 5+ months. Note: TRGP and NGLS go ex-dividend on Tuesday...so tomorrow is the last day to buy for the dividend/distribution. GL

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Wow!

    by mizzou1966 Oct 22, 2013 10:54 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Oct 25, 2013 11:26 PM Flag

    Four straight up weeks for Targa Resources. We are just six trading days away fro Q3 results and the 2014 forecast. Sold some shares and loaded up on the Apr 60 and Apr 70 calls. I'm looking for good results and a great forecast. If so, I can see 85 by April, if not sooner. GL

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Oct 22, 2013 10:54 PM Flag

    What a reaction to yesterday's (after the close) announcement of a dividend increase from .5325 to .57 per share (+7%). And...this was right in line with expectations. At the current 78.56, the yield (based on the indicated annual rate of 2.28) is currently 2.90%. This is actually slightly below the historical average which is close to 3.1%. For this reason, I look at TRGP as fully valued for awhile. That could change as early as Monday, Nov 4, when Targa Resources releases Q3 earnings and, more importantly, the 2014 forecast. If the projected distribution growth for NGLS continues in the 10-11% range for next year, then the TRGP dividend and share price could be in for a 25-35% increase in 2014. One other point of interest: Plains All-American just had an IPO for a 21%+ of the general partner. That means the other 78%+ was kept in private hands. With Targa, TRGP is the whole general partner. I now have a 15%+ gain in TRGP in less than 3 months plus strong gains in Jan65 and Apr60 calls. With the wide spread, it looks like I will need to exercise the calls late in the contract periods and keep some and sell some stock. Hopefully, as TRGP gets bigger (market cap, trading volume, options activity, etc.) the spreads will narrow. GL

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Oct 21, 2013 9:13 AM Flag

    Agreed, plus the IR department stinks. Called twice and only got a recorder. Left my phone number for a call back. Still waiting one week later. If no announcement today/tomorrow, we could be in trouble. Stay tuned. For now, I am going to a hold based on the delayed dividend information and the lack of a responsive IR department. GL

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Targa Resources hit a new all-time high today at 75.05, taking out the previous high of 74.92 on Oct 2. Now, we'll see when TRGP will take out the all-time closing high of 74.73 on Oct 1. With lass than 15 mins left in the trading day, it looks like we will have to wait for awhile longer. All this is beautiful action leading up to the Targa twins dividend/distribution announcements (probably on Wednesday). Sold 300 TRGP on Friday and picked up 10 TRGP Jan65C. It is nice to have control of another 700 shares...even if only till mid-January. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Targa twins should be announcing the dividends and distributions next Wednesday, plus or minus a day. I'm looking for a 7% increase for TRGP form .5325 to .57 per share. This would be an annual rate of 2.28 (yield of 3.11% based on yesterday's close of 73.31). Also expect Q3 earnings and 2014 forecasts for the twins in very early November. I still rate TRGP a buy, but a weak buy, until we get the dividend announcement and see the Q3 earnings and 2014 forecast presentation. Still looking for 95 as a YE 2014 target price. That would give a ~35% total return from the current price. GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Oct 5, 2013 12:01 PM Flag

    Usually don't post about other stocks; however, the TRGP board is totally dead. Targa Resources (TRGP) is not an MLP but is the GP of NGLS. Compare the price charts for the three stocks (TRGP, NGLS, and EPD...or any other MLP) since TRGP's IPO (12/7/2010) is eye opening. Current TRGP dividend is in the 2.9-3.0 range, next dividend announcement is due about 10/16, and expectations are for another 7-8% increase. The annual increase is running in the 35%+ area. This can not be sustained in the long run; however, 25%+ is doable for the next several years. Comments here or on the TRGP board are welcome. Thanks for your time.

    Sentiment: Hold

EPD
40.300.00(0.00%)Sep 30 4:04 PMEDT

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