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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

mizzou1966 25 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Sep 4, 2005
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  • Reply to

    TRGP Conference Call

    by mizzou1966 May 5, 2015 9:58 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 17 hours ago Flag

    The price drop this morning to the sub-102 area is not justified by Q1 results and the 2015-16 outlook. As a result, I bought another 700 shares this morning and now have over 10K shares. I fully expect to see TRGP north of 140 within a year and north of 200 within three years What casual investors/traders are missing is the continuation of 25-30% annual dividend increases. IMO, 25% is really the low side. TRGP's estimate is 25%+; however, they have always exceeded annual projections. If WTI just averages 65 for the last eight months of the year, I would expect the dividend to increase close to 30% this year. I have been invested in TRGP since July 2013 and expect to continue as an investor for years to come. I can see trimming the position and then adding back, from time to time, but will most likely hold a large (for me) core position for years to come. One downside to owning TRGP is the lack of corporate hype. However, this is more than offset by corporate honesty and the lack of diluting shares by increasing share count without a corresponding or greater increase in value. Biggest long term risk: Possible buyout if these low share prices continue.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 May 5, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    The numbers are what they are: funky for Q1. IMO, the numbers (due to the energy price declines and the ATLS buyout) should get better in Q2-Q3 and a lot better by Q4 and 2016. Looking at it another way, TRGP is increasing the dividend by 25-28% annually...even in this tough environment and with the cost and dislocation of the buyout. I continue to look for a ~$4.20 dividend by the time of the Q1 2016 distribution and a 12-month target price of 140. Yes, I've even bought another 500 shares with the price decline since the ex-dividend date. With the yield at 3.18%, IMO, TRGP is a STRONG BUY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TRGP vs NGLS

    by gepahave Apr 23, 2015 9:16 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 May 2, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    One thing needs to be pointed out, the MLP (NLGS) is designed to have the shares outstanding expand over time. The GP (TRGP) has kept virtually the same share count from the IPO (Dec 2010) until the recent exchange of ATLS shares (Feb 2015) into TRGP shares which was not dilutive (due to the price and the smart use of cash). Personally, I prefer the lower yield but faster growth of the GP. When the MLP has more units, it may or may not help the MLP unit holders; however; any expansion of the overall MLP cash flow helps the GP (assuming the GP retains the same share count or it increases by less than the MLP cash flow Looking at its history, IMO, TRGP is a STRONG BUY when the the yield is over 3% and a HOLD under 2.75% yield. The current yield is 3.16% making TRGP a STRONG BUY ( up to 100.66). In my book, TRGP goes to a hold above 120.72. Note: These prices will most likely increase by another 6%+ in mid-July. Disclosure: Long TRGP since July 2013.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Best time to buy in??

    by kajoobies88 Apr 27, 2015 6:39 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Apr 30, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    If you are looking at MCEP and other stocks with small dividends/distributions, timing (before to get the payout or the x-dividend date to get the usual price drop) it doesn't really matter. Now, a stock like MEMP with a .55 distribution on a ~18 base price, you might want to wait till the x-date (if you can watch/trade the stock during the day) and try to pick it up lower than the distribution adjusted price. this probably works more time than not. However, in the case that the earnings come out before the bell on the x-div date, all bets are off. Then there is the gamble on the earnings reaction to consider. These usually doing time this way, but just a warning to check all the important dates on stocks you own or are considering. Disclosure: Long TRGP, PAGP, MEMP, and MCEP. I trade around core positions in PAGP and MEMP; holding TRGP and MCEP for the long term. If and when WTI gets back to 80+, all four stocks will do great, but the total return and implied distribution on MCEP should be outstanding.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Q1 dividend/distribution announcement for TRGP and NGLS is due tomorrow, after the close. The last two Aprils the announcement has come on Tuesdays (4/16/13 and 4/15/14). Since we did not get it last Tuesday (the 14th), my guess is for this Tuesday (the 21st). Other quarters, the announcement has been made after the close on Thursday. For my money, the announcement should come tomorrow with Thursday probably the not later than date. Stock was up by about 2 points during the day and closed +.97. Trading the next few days could be interesting. My target quarterly dividend is a jump from .775 to .82. Any thing higher should be seen as very positive. GL to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any thoughts on Zacks overbought comments?

    by jbpsb1 Mar 30, 2015 8:46 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Apr 18, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    MIC looks like an excellent long term investment and superb dollar cost average candidate. Looking at adding $X per month or quarter which could be very rewarding over 5 years plus. MIC looks to be an excellent compliment to my two largest holdings (MLP GPs: TRGP and PAGP). IMO, these three stocks together with a good biotech ETF (maybe XIB) could make and simple, but high total return portfolio.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Off to the races...

    by mizzou1966 Apr 15, 2015 1:05 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Apr 17, 2015 5:59 PM Flag

    Week in review: TRGP closed +3.73 (+3.7%) at 104.29. Was expecting the Q1 dividend announcement between Apr 16 (yesterday) and Apr 23 (next Thursday). I am looking for a minimum of .8125 (+6%) and a maximum of .8325 (+7.4%). I am hoping for north of +6.5% (equal or above .825375. PAGP's dividend was a nice upside surprise (+9.35%) after forecasting "just" +21% for the year. With TRGP dropping the usual reference to the yearly dividend guidance in the March presentation update, it will be very interesting to see the dividend amount and hear the CC forward guidance. Dividend announces usually are made after the market close on Tuesdays or Thursdays. These are not usually covered in the Yahoo news section, so, if interested, best to check the Targa web site to see if there is a news release (usually) between 5-6 PM CT.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Article

    by parisite76 Apr 15, 2015 12:10 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Apr 15, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Buyout or no buyout? It really doesn't matter. Just hold TRGP shares for the longer term. If that is 6-18 months and there is a buyout north of 180 it would be a good news/bad news story. We would have the cash or new shares, but that would mean trying to find another great company like TRGP. Good luck. In addition to all its great growth, TRGP has not diluted shareholder and never increased the share count after the Dec 2010 IPO until (of course) the additional shares issued in the ATLS midstream buyout. And, that was a bargain and accretive to Targa shareholders. Really looking forward to the pending dividend announcement and Q1 earnings release. The true value won't be realized until later in the year when we get a couple of quarters of pro-forma earnings out for all to see, Personally, I'd like to see Targa stay independent, at least for a couple of years.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Apr 15, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    Renewed buyout interest (or at least speculation) combined with the pending dividend announcement (most likely this week or next) and Q1 earnings release, CC, etc (probably in early May have TRGP shares up almost 4%. The shares are moving in on the 200-DMA and trying to top some key closes from December. If it can move through the 110-112 area, there is more or less clear sailing to 120. Considering buyout speculation, I would not want to sell my shares this year for less than 200. Disclosure: TRGP and PAGP remain my number one and two holdings. I rate both a BUY, will refrain from adding any more shares of either due to overweighted positions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    k-1's out electronically by March 7.

    by idccnokia2006 Jan 20, 2015 12:58 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Apr 7, 2015 8:28 AM Flag

    On online Mar 31 and paper coy received Apr 6. Receive K-1s from ATLS, MEMP, and MMP a month or more ago. Will never invest in ETE again. Actually, will only buy MMP and MEP in the future. Both are excellent in their respective areas and have relatively simple K-1s..

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Possible triple bottom...

    by mizzou1966 Mar 18, 2015 5:29 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Apr 6, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    TRGP is acting great less than three weeks prior to the Q1 (period covering Q1 activities) dividend announcement. Also note that VectorVest switched from Hold to BUY for TRGP today. This is positive for the stock and we could see 110-120 by the end of July (less than four months). The thing to watch is the amount of the dividend increase. After the 35% projected increase for 2015 that was issued in the Nov Investor Presentation, the company has dropped a forward dividend projection in the March update. I'm looking for a 7%+ increase this quarter which is 31% annualized. Anything less could be seen as disappointing; however, 7%+ could be seen as very positive and would most likely be a sign that Targa Resources can sustain this level of dividend increases over the next 3-4 quarters. I'm still projecting a 4.00+ annualized dividend by the 4Q15 distribution (declared Jan16). That is a ~4.1% yield based on today's closing price. Disclosure: Long TRGP and PAGP.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • With the intra-day low ow 88.36 and subsequent rebound, TRGP may have put in a triple bottom. Next key pint is 93.53 which is the current 50-DMA. A couple of weeks ago, TRGP broke above and then back below the 50-DMA. One key was that the MA was and still is declining; however, with positive price action, TRGP is positioning to potentially both move above the 50 day and for the MA to move up or at least go flat. This will be interesting because we recently had both negative (secondary offering) and positive (updated presentation) and the net effect on the share price was negative. I see little to really boost the stock until maybe the next dividend announcement (due in mid to mid-late April). Also note: At today's low, TRGP yield once again reached slightly above 3.5%. Based on the projected dividend increases for 2015, I'm looking at a dividend ~4.10 within 13 months and a yield (based on today's low) of ~4.6%. Disclosure: TRGP is my largest holding. Rate TRGP a BUY when the yield is in the 2.6-3.4% range. Yield was at 3.37% at today's close of 92.

  • Reply to

    Help me Understand this move !!!!

    by shorty_bigtime Mar 17, 2015 3:01 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 17, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    Cramer had the CEO on his show.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    NGLS is Hurting!

    by milecourse11 Mar 5, 2015 12:39 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 13, 2015 10:09 PM Flag

    Just relax. There will be some turbulence with the ATLS midstream buyout, low energy prices, and all the financing, and refinancing. It may take another quarter or two for the performance to clearly stand out. I'm looking for at least a 2% increase in the next NGLS distribution and ~6% increase for the TRGP dividend. With its 3.25 million plus share offering, TRGP will be buying some $53 million of NGLS with about ~19% of the proceeds. Both TRGP and NGLS should settle down and show nice last eight months of the year price increases once the dividends/distribution continue solid quarter over quarter increases. NGLS a is STRONG Buy; however, I generally do not buy MLPs...only GPs of MLPs. TRGP is my number one holding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Aquired some TGRP via the Atlas merger___

    by eusdond Mar 2, 2015 4:45 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 13, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    Good comments. I love both TRGP and PAGP. TRGP is my number 1 holding. Numbers 2-4 are PAGP, AAPL, and GILD. Planning to hold all four for the longer term. Looking for a 25%+ dividend increase for TRGP and ~21% for PAGP based on the dividends declared for 2016 results (basically one quarter delayed or May 2015 compared to May 2014 annualized rates).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Aquired some TGRP via the Atlas merger___

    by eusdond Mar 2, 2015 4:45 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Mar 13, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    First off, you know to know (and acknowledge) two points: (1) TRGP is not a an MLP, it is a GP (general partner of NGLS which is the MLP) and (2) TRGP has raised its dividend by 25-30%...every year...and looks to continue these increases for the next 2-3 years. Let's look at these two points and some other items. Any one who is trades TRGP is probably in the wrong stock. TRGP is one to understand, follow every news release/presentation, and see if it meets its metrics. Based on recent price (89.20) when I started this note, TRGP's yield is at 3.47%. With the normal 6.% increase (expected) in April, TRGP's annual dividend should be around 3.28, for a 3.67% yield. If you extrapolate the increases out to Arp 2016, the dividend should be in the 4.14 area, for a 4.64% yield. TRGP dividend (an stock appreciation) is set to grow by about 3 times that of the underlying MLP. If you want the big yield, buy NGLS or another midstream MLP; on the other hand, if you want total return, TRGP is an excellent vehicle. I'll have another note on TRGP nearing an important bottom...later today. GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Feb 28, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Glad to have the Atlas Energy deal completed. It may take 3-6 months to get a real handle of the new company. IMO, TRGP will be much stronger. Yes, when there is uncertainty, the price will remain depressed. However; when many more cards are on the table...the price will be significantly higher. I am looking doe a 4.00+ annualized dividend for the 1Q16 period (announced in April 2016). With a target yield of 3%, that would equate to a 133.33 price target (or +33.9% plus dividend) in less than 16 months. I'll take that. Personally, my April 16 target is higher; 143 (or about a 2.8% yield). TRGP is far from a one trick pony. They have recently signed deals that will kick in major projects in 2016-17. My major hope: TRGP and NGLS remain independent and do not get bought out (by KMI?). I'm on a BUY below 105 and a strong buy under 90. BUY to me means I'll add shares monthly with new cash. A strong buy means I will consider selling other stocks/options to free up buying power to add more shares. Disclaimer: TRGP is my number one holding. Either TRGP or ATLS (to get more TRGP shares) has been my largest holding since summer 2013.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    ATLS.WI

    by artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 24, 2015 11:12 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    ATLS wi trade down a fraction most of the day and closed down .01. Just one more day, till the transaction is completed (at least on paper). Will be so glad to have this behind us.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Did anyone go long/short?

    by harmlessmoth Feb 25, 2015 7:43 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    I gambled and used a lot of margin. It will pay off Monday or early next week. Will use all the cash to pay back the margin debt. I could do this because of the strong belief in Targa Resources. TRGP had been my number one holding until I sold some shares to buy ATLS and then really loaded up on ATLS the past two months. My holdings will in the new ATLS will decrease by ~84% compared to my current ATLS value. Even this is way over weighted, so I may or may not sell 1/2 to 1/3 of my new ATLS shares over the next few days/weeks/months. A lot depends upon how the stock price acts and TRGP's price action.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Did anyone go long/short?

    by harmlessmoth Feb 25, 2015 7:43 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Feb 26, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    Shorting TRGP (especially when it was under 90) would have been flat out dumb. Yes, I bought a lot of ATLS when the implied value of the spinco was under 3 (6 now with the 1 for 2 distribution). I will hold the TRGP shares, use the cash portion to pay down margin, and look to sell 1/2 to 1/3 of the new ATLS depending upon how it acts over the next weeks/months and the first few distribution announcements.

    Sentiment: Hold

EPD
33.55-0.56(-1.64%)May 6 4:02 PMEDT