It just amazes me that this stock just can't decouple itself from oil. Despite all the different types of cars they build, it seems the market still thinks they just make tanker cars to carry crude. Oil down some 2% and GBX gets slammed down 4%.
I think a lot of short covering is what propelled this stock up 7% in the last 2 days. I guess shorts could continue covering and send it even higher. But on a valuation basis the price is very high. Last year at its high price this stock sold for 14.8 x future earnings a year away. We are right now selling for over 15 x future earnings for this year. At low points this stock has been selling for 11.5 - 12 x future earnings.. Thus, there seems to be a lot more downside than upside unless, for some reason, the past PE range suddenly no longer applies, or future earnings for this year and next are going to be a lot higher than forecast.
Today's drop was probably is sympathy with JNPR's PR announcing a revenue and earnings miss for the current quarter. I have no idea why we dropped so much last week. JNPR mentioned weakness in Europe as causing the miss. I don't know how much FFIV and JNPR's businesses overlap, but the market must think there is a chance that FFIV's results will be below expectation as well.