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Panera Bread Company Message Board

mjones2702 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2014 8:33 PM Member since: Jan 8, 2014
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  • mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 26, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    We need consistent order growth of 20% or so every quarter, not just one quarter every now and then. If management expected this kind of order growth to continue, their revenue estimates for next year would be much higher.

  • Reply to

    Buy at cheap.

    by gomaster1 Aug 22, 2014 2:16 PM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 23, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    A buyout is the only thing that will launch this stock higher. Sales growth is just to slow for much upside. otherwise. Still hoping for a buyout, but just not sure if this business is big enough to really matter to a large, multi-national medical device firm.

  • mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 22, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    My wife's pet sitting business takes her inside people's homes, mostly middle-upper-middle class homes. She says that the majority of homes that she goes into now have a keurig machine. You may not use it, but a large percentage of people do.

  • Reply to

    Q4 & Full Year 2014 results

    by alexandria_cairo Aug 21, 2014 4:29 PM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 21, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    The problem with this firm is that it is no longer a growth stock. Expected revenues growth for next fiscal year is less than 10%. Sure, maybe they will finally achieve break-even by the end of next year, but the stock price already reflects this. We need top line growth in the 15-20% range to propel this stock forward. Maybe management is playing it safe with their estimates, but that is a bit of a gamble to think so. I think that their are much better growth investment opportunities out there than this.

  • What is the possibility of this stock getting to $5 by January? I am looking at the Jan 2015 $3.50 calls. They are only selling for $.30-.35 and would be worth $1.50 or more if this stock gets to $5. it seems like a little downside risk for a good possible upside. But I don't know much about this company and the drillers as a whole are beat up to no end right now.

  • Reply to

    every one who wanted to sell ...

    by kathlenebradshaw Aug 13, 2014 4:47 PM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 13, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    Where were the strong hands to keep this from dropping 8% on a slight revenue miss and a slight decrease in guidance for the next Q? I wouldn't say it is in strong hands.

  • Reply to

    this stock is extreeeemly cheap

    by rajoilprasad Aug 13, 2014 6:45 PM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 13, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    Here is my take. SFY has operating cash flow that is about 19% current debt plus market capital. Most exploration firms are in the 10-15% range. There is no doubt that SFY's market capital is undervalued. To get to 15%, SFY's market cap would need to be $2.15B, or about $21 per share. In other words, SFY's operating cash flow is not valued nearly as much as one would expect. The big negative for SFY, however, is that it hasn't, as of yet, shown the ability to increase operating cash flow on any consistent basis. Hopefully that will change.

  • mjones2702 by mjones2702 Aug 8, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    They guide between $.01 and .06 for the 3rdQ. What kind of wide, ridiculous range is that? Analysts were looking for between $.05 and .07 It looks like the analysts are way off. No wonder the stock crashed. Co probably won't do anymore that $.10 - .12 for the entire year. Everything just seems to keep getting pushed further out with this firm.

  • Reply to

    Very stupid selloff

    by john.ohare88 Aug 1, 2014 2:27 PM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Aug 2, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    The PE was already very reasonable. I just don't get a 15% sell off on earnings that met estimates. I am just going to have to stop holding stocks through earnings. Just getting absolutely killed this earnings period.

  • mjones2702 by mjones2702 Jul 31, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Even using the highest earnings estimates, this company is growing earnings at about 13% per year. Yet its price is 18 x the highest 2015 earnings estimate and 27x last year's earnings. Why such a high value for a modest growing firm? It is not like they sell a product that is unique and has limited competition. I might look to short this one.

  • mjones2702 by mjones2702 Jul 31, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    There was a slight beat on earnings, but revenue was below estimate and their business continues to decline. At $51.50 the price is 18 x 2015 earnings estimates which seems quite high for a business in decline.

  • The quarter was decent but should have been so much better. Revenue growth was 48%, but operating earnings was only up 30%. It appears that the increased volume somewhat overwhelmed them and their manufacturing efficiency went out the window. I don't know if they addressed this on the conference call, but I would like to know their explanation. But clearly demand for railcars is strong with order for 3,450 cars in the month of July alone and a backlog of 9,530 cars at the end of June. However, unless mgmt. has a good plan for improving manufacturing efficiency, I don't see this going up on this report.

  • mjones2702 by mjones2702 Jul 30, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    This company has debt that is 2.4x annual revenue. They appear to be borrowing money to help pay their handsome dividend. How long can this process last and what happens if interest rates rise? The dividend payment is the only thing supporting the stock price. This stock seems very risky to me given their high payout ratio and debt level.

  • There are only 2 things that this stock can do now over the next few months. 1) consolidate in the 50's with the 50 month moving average of $50 holding as support, or 2) continue to sell off towards longer-term monthly support of about $35. I see no scenario for this stock to rise until the next earnings release in late October at the earliest. A short position probably has a 50% chance of making you money with little risk of a loss.

  • Reply to


    by ishort.stocks Jul 11, 2014 12:53 AM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Jul 11, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    Actually that leak saved me some money. I saw the stock dropping on heavy volume yesterday and sold some of my calls and put spreads on the one's that I kept. I wish I had sold them all. I still lost money but it would have been a lot worse without the advance notice.

  • mjones2702 by mjones2702 Jul 9, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    The new guidance basically means little or no earnings and sales growth for this year. The PE on this thing is going to get crushed. You have got to go with a 15 PE now on expected earnings. I say $45 is now fair value. So there is still another 10 points down likely coming even after the after-hours drop.

  • A 47 PE on this year's expected earnings. PCLN only sells for 24 x 2014 estimated earnings. Even if you adjust for the difference in growth rate (30% for TRIP and 20% for PCLN) an equivalent PE for TRIP would be about 36. That would make it a $79 stock. The current price is ridiculous.

  • Reply to

    Asset Valuation

    by subswazus Jun 4, 2014 11:08 AM
    mjones2702 mjones2702 Jun 4, 2014 11:08 PM Flag

    I have gotten similar values by taking the approximately $300M in annual cash flow from operations and discounting it to its present value. If you use just 10 years into the future you get a PV of about $2.3B, minus debt of $1.2B and divide by 44M shares equals $25 per share. It is cheap anyway you slice it, but their debt level and anemic production growth could leave it undervalued for a long time. I think selling the whole company might be the only way to unlock its intrinsic value.

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