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Discovery Laboratories Inc. Message Board

mkmnymklv 88 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2014 4:43 PM Member since: Aug 20, 2012
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  • You know it worth a lot more. The TS alone will worth more than $3 billion, no kidding. As someone has said: "hedge may win a battle but Al will win the War". For me, this is my last post and I will not pay attention to MNKD except setting the UTC order of selling at $15.

    Since this wil be my last post this year for MNKD, here is what I think the deal.

    1. SNY was thinking of taking over MNKd, but the offer could be at somewhere 5-6 billion (or 100% premium), but Al turned it down because Al was looking somewhere in $10 billion.

    2. The second option for both of the firms is the partnership. And this came at a very shot time frame, so short such that the CC cann not talk a lot of things in details plus Greenhill keeps silent.

    3. A lot of details are still worked out for the deal, but ultimately, SNY will take over MNKD in 2016. The deal has mitigated some risks for both of the firms. SNY wants to see Afrezza did sell well. MNKD wants to show that Afrezza does sell well.

    4. If Afrezza reaches $250 million sales in 2015, it will be very convincing that it will be selling $2.5 Billion and more in US plus 2.5 Billion more in EU.

    5. MNKD's capacity at launch will be able to produce 500 million cartridges yearly. Assume SNY can sell 50% of those, that is about $250 million revenue.

    6. Just look for guidance in Q3 from both MNKD and SNY, I will not surprised to see this forecasting.

    7. Good luck longs, see ya 2016 @ $60 pps.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Those stay within the crowd will be safe. Think it twice, anything negative has happened? None. The fall was planned and if there were no such an SNY deal, it could have felt further. Some big money sold around $4 in hoping PPS go to $2 but AdvCom smashed their dream. You heard a smelly fish said this will be down 90% to $1, right?

    But for a real investor, I still believe Al got the best deal he could. His ultimate goal is to get Afrezza a huge success. Does he care too much about PPS? No, I believe he cares more of those poor DM patients, Above all, care those patients are his number one priority.

    See what Adam say this time, "bloated balance sheet" to blame. Wow, he just realized that. What a #$%$. MNKD's balance sheet has been like this for long. Where was he weeks before? Do we need this kind of ANALyst to tell us buy or sell? Actually, the balance sheet looks much better with the 150 million upfront.

    Ultimately, if SNY can realize $200 million sales in 2015, peak sale in US to $3 billion will be widely accepted by the street. Along with EU approval, peak sale of $6 billion will be accepted. Equivalent 25% royalty ratewill mean $1.5 billion income for MNKD. Remember, MNKD has zero cost related to afrezza, i.e. 1.5 billion profit or a $30 billon cap. You figure out the PPS in 24 month.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 12, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    I bumped your post so it can be on top. But your reasons are not right. For those who really hates this stock, they should have been gone for good. Why are they here, they want to get in for cheap. If Afrezza does not have the potential to make $10 billion sales, you won't be able to see this many nay sayers here. The fact MNKD attracted this much attention has told me something. They have the deep pocket, let them load up. what else you can do? Those who sold in the past two days due to panic will regret in long term. There was an old Chinese saying: "As soon as a thing reaches its extremity, it reverses its course." Hope you understand it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. Al made the right decision by partnering with SNY. You have to make Afrezza a success story before you can reap the gains. Alliance with SNY gives Afrezza the best chance toward success. I have to admit, Al's intelligence is above all of us on this board. Remember DNDN, AMRN, ARNA. They all have great product, but wrong partnership or no partnership have killed the company.

    2. When Afrezza touch the accumulated $1 billion sale (18-24 months) and beyond, both TO and MNKD will become very attractive. The inhaled GLP-1 will have even larger market base than Afrezza. By licensing GLP-1 on TO, MNKD will worth more than today's cap. The success of Afrezza will trigger BP's attempting of taking over MNKD (Al will be 90?). By then, BP will have to agree with MNKD's asking.

    3. No kidding, MNKD will stay at this level for long. Al acquired TO for $1 billion 9 years ago. With Afrezza's approval, the validated TO platform today alone will worth more than $3 billion or $8 pps.

    4. Saw the fool's survey (forgot the details), the market is really expecting MNKD entering 2015 at above $15 pps.

    5. Was holding on 03/31/2014 when it hit $4. Held today through the difficult time when it hit $7.22. if it did hit $7 and below, will add more.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Assumptions:
    1. Afrezza has a 50% profit margin, not too high given SNY has had the sale's fore already in place
    2. when Afrezza sales reach $1 billion, MNKD gets $250 million milestone; when reached $2 billion, MNKD get the remaining 400 million
    3. P/E=20

    Run the numbers by year
    1. 2015- Afrezza sales $500 million, MNKD gets $87.5 million net profits, Afrezza worth 1.75 billion
    2. 2016 - Afrezza sales $1 billion, MNKD gets $250 + $ 87.5= $337.5 million, 6.75 billion
    3. 2017- Afrezza sales $2 billion, MNKD gets $400+210=$610 million, 12.2 billion
    4.2018- Afrezza sales $4 billion (globally now), MNKD gets $700 million 14 bliion

    If To worth $3 billion, we are looking MNKD's cap at 4.75, 8.75, 15.2, 17 billions in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Both MNKD and SNY announced the partnership. But Greenhill said nothing about it. Is Greenhill not part of this? Looks like so. What does that mean? We do now that the SNY deal does not prevent Al from selling the MNKD as long as the then existing contracts are honored. SNY only has the global commercial rights for Afrezza, nothing else.

    As I said earlier, Al got a very good deal. Suppose Afrezza reaches 10 billion sales world wide at peak (reality there with SNY), 40% profit margin will lead 1.4 billion profit (not revenue b/c Afrezza is not free to SNY plus MNKD has no marketing cost) to MNKD, PE 20 will yield 28 billion cap, $70 pps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    after hours...

    by johnava544 Aug 11, 2014 2:56 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    How about $12. It should touch a new high on the partner news. Nearly 60 million shares exchanged hands and no words from either ANALysts, isn't it strange? Do not know how much of the 60 million shares are the new positions taken by big players. After they take a position, the upgrade will start to come. Couplig wit Friday option expires, we do have a reason to believe $15 pps by end of the week.

    If Afrezza cannot make a difference in DM care, MNKD even not worth what is t is today and you should not look at this board. If You believe Afrezza will make a big crater, this is your last chance to get in under $10.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts are 63% today

    by southvegasman Aug 11, 2014 2:38 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Crazy! If so, the shorts must be in deep trouble and cannot afford the loss. The only way to make their book look better is to short at whatever cost. This reminds me the 2004-2007 real estate market (opposite direction but same logic), everyone knew house price cannot sustain that level but every is buying into new highs. WE all know that MNKD cannot be this low for long but shorts keep shorting it to new lows. Guess what, like a poker game, the more tokens they they throw in, the more they are gonna to lose. The last who short it will be caught. "Al will win the war" eventually.

    BTW, how did you get the 63%. What is your source?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Compare other partnership deals, MNKD got a very good one. Look at ARNA's deal, ARNA is not qualified for profit sharing. It only receives 31%-36.5% of the net sales buy supplying Belviq. It can receive $1.1 billion upon certain mile stones.

    So translated into simple understanding, As residue income stream, ARNA only takes in money for selling Belviq from Eisai. The one time adjustment of $1.16 billion depends on milestones.

    Now compare to MNKD/SNY deal, looks like Al is more confident with the sale figures. In addition to $750 million milestones, MNKD will get 35% of the profit. Should SNY profited $5 billion year over year for 30 years, MNKD will get 1.75 billion year over year for 30 years in addition to the $750 million one time milestone payment. In the same scenario, ARNA only get 1.1 billion one time.

    MNKD also sells Afrezza to SNY at a profit, "under a separate supply agreement". That explained why MNKD get the insulin supply agreement.

    If you believe Afrezza will be selling 10 billinos in 3-5 years, MNKD is the best investment you can get.

  • Reply to

    Those long IDIOTS

    by the_investment_god Aug 11, 2014 11:30 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    There is a liar here.

    -MNKD will double once they meet study endpoints (didn't happen)

    Facts: MNKD was trading around $2 prior to 2013, prior to the trial results, it was trading at $4. After the results, it reached $8 prior to few days to AdvCom meeting, more than doubled.

    -MNKD will double once they get positive Adcom vote (didn't happen)

    Facts: on 03/28, FDA's review doc was very negative, it leads to $4 pps at the close of 03/31/2014. on 04/02/2014, after adv voting, it was trading back to $8 again and once reached $10, more than doubled.

    -MNKD will double once they get FDA approval (didn't happen)

    Facts: it will double from $8 to $16 and above, not on the day of 06/27/2014 but check 12/31/2014 and mark this post.

    -MNKD will double once they get a partner (didn't happen)

    Facts: it will double from $16 to $32 and beyond, not on the day of 08/09/2014 but check 04/31/2015 and mark this post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $150 Million upfront

    by georgesmarsh Aug 11, 2014 11:13 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Some big money was deeply in short and need to cover. Some other big money is waiting a better point to get in and realize 20-50% gains. it is big money's game.

    After the CC, I am expecting some upgrades from a few of the big moneys.

    After all, the news is great. 35% of profit sharing? Most other firms could only get to the mid-upper teens. MNKD's cost is virtually zero. Read this quote carefully, "Under a separate supply agreement, MannKind will manufacture Afrezza at its manufacturing facility in Danbury, Connecticut."

    MNKD's buying insulin, making Afrezza all are on MNKD's own. However, MNKD is to supply to SNY and the deal is from separate agreement. What does that mean? MNKD will not supply Afrezza to SNY for free. Assuming Al will at least add some minimal profit to cover the head counts.

    So MNKD will have zero expense related to Afrezza starting from 01/01/2014. MNKD will see positive cash flow starting from Q12015 with Afrezza alone. Al still owns the rights of Afrezza and TO.

    Assuming $5 billion peak sales in US alone and 40% margin, at 35% profit sharing, it is already $700 million. At forward PE=20, that is $14 billion cap or $35 PPS. If the rest of the world make the other $5 billion sales, $70 PPS. Plus Al still has the TO to collect loyalties.

    Let big money do the work and the future of MNKD is promising.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like so. So far 20 some million shares have changed hands. Retail short, better cover now. The CC will have a lot to talk and upgrade will come afterwards.

    The poll had shown that more than 80% who were surveyed believe MNKD will be more than $15 entering 2015. Giving up another 50% profit is okay, but not covering will be wrong. All the hurdles have been gone by now.

    Again, the TO alone will worth more than the current cap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    gap up again tomorrow

    by bal2_2 Aug 11, 2014 9:56 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Same thoughts here. Upgrade of one year target to $15 coming after the earning's CC this afternoon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It was 07/24/2014 when you started to short. The intra-day price was $8.71-$9.50. Since then you shorted it all the way to $8.02. Keep shorting it now? Good luck. By next year 04/15/2015, the PPS will be in $25.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    SNY has no rights to TO neither to Afrezza.
    if SNY needs TO to develop other drugs, a separate agreement is needed and a lot more $$$ to Al.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Al does not want to give that out. TO will worth more than Afrezza.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For most other firms, they only get the upper teens of the percentage of the net sales (net sales, not profit). MNKD gets 35% of profits, wow.

    quote 1: "Sanofi will be responsible for global commercial, regulatory and development activities"
    quote 2: "Under a separate supply agreement, MannKind will manufacture Afrezza at its manufacturing facility in Danbury, Connecticut."
    quote 3: " In addition, the companies are planning to collaborate to expand manufacturing capacity to meet global demand as necessary."

    First, SNY will do the global commercials plus global regulatory development, EU, China, India, Latins etc; This alone will cost multiple billions;
    Second, MNKD will be the supplier of Afrezza to SNY, assuming MNKD will make some profit here beyond the 35%;
    Third, expanding manufacturing capacity with SNY and SNY will cover up to 175 million for that.

    From this point onward, MNKD will have no cost but only profit., plus tax wring off of the earlier year's expanse, shorts will be cooked.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 9, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Thumb up. Make sense. So PFE was thinking of taking over AZN earlier of the year. The deal falls through. Could it because of MNKD? are AZN and PFE both bidding for MNKD against each other?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 9, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Good point. Not a lawyer nor familiar with SEC rules, however, this type of PR did happen before with other companies. For example, PATH (when trading around $1.2) put a PR says a local firm is bidding for taking over with $3.65 per share plus further $$$ if sales reaches certain milestones. Short time later, another PR was out that TEVA would like to take over PATH for $4.5 (?, forgot exactly). So even the deal had not been signed, PATH did announce the bids. Any legal expert please comments under what situation can this happen, could it be definitely deal if bids are accepted?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Spoke to Roberta just now....please

    by vaqeel12690 Aug 8, 2014 7:07 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 8, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    Actually, I only doubt his conversation with Roberta had happened or not. But his point is very straight forward. The CC may not have anything to discuss about the partnership or M&A. If Al can talk in details, then MNKD should have already released the news. Shaping expectation is very important, you do not want shorts use this anxiety to further push down the PPS.

    For me, as long as Al say the following two: 1. still working on partnership,2. no intention to offer secondary, I will hold all my shares and add more should it goes down further.

    I think Vaq deserves a thumbs up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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