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Discovery Laboratories Inc. Message Board

mkmnymklv 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 12, 2015 11:07 AM Member since: Aug 20, 2012
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  • "Stefan Schwarz, head of Sanofi's U.S. marketing team for Afrezza, said the wholesale price for 20 units a day of Afrezza is $9.29, compared with $5.23 for its injected insulin, Apidra. Sanofi is offering coupons on its website to help patients cover co-pays."

    Each unit sells at about 0.46. Assuming 12 units per cartridge on average, that is $5.5 per cartridge on average. 300 million cartridges translate into $1.66 billion.

    I guess both SNY and MNKD strongly believe this is the reachable target in two years.

    Mannkind is for mankind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    To all the buyout believers

    by tanglsmith Jul 29, 2015 4:39 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jul 29, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Why not?

    You and I can only rely on the incomplete IMS/symphony data until next CC. SNY should have all the first hand info to gauge the peak sales of Afrezza. IMS/Synphony for Afrezza is incomplete because it is so new, however, IMS/Synphony for Humalog/Novolog should be dependable for pattern tracking or forecasting. Isn't it right?

    BO today, AL may take the $6 billion bid
    BO this time 2016, AL only takes $20 billion bid
    BO in 2018, AL will be a $40 billion firm

    Get the pictures?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What I read the press release is that BoA has to exchange over the 10 day exchange period. For a given day, it does not have to but after 08/11, those $$$ would have been converted into shares either at the floor price of $4.6 or higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's not an easy prescription

    by dinh2000long Aug 5, 2015 11:00 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 5, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    If it is only like to choose between a burger or a whopper, no need to go through the hustle.

    However, the difference of Afrezza from Novo/Huma is not the difference of burger from whopper. Tell you what, whence the difference is learned by the general public, shorts will not even have a chance to react.

    Since the superiority is not on the label, SNY just cannot advertise that way to be compliant and that may also explain the slow roll-out. Be low profile at the beginning, after the A1c is back from those early adopters, words will be out. A lot of drugs are even prescribed off the label after doctors see the benefit. For Afrezza, this will take some time and that time is close. I do not know when, but I know it is close as evidenced by tripling the capacity plus BoA is willingly to convert note to equity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Afrezza...lets review~

    by itellthefuture777 Aug 7, 2015 3:10 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 7, 2015 9:57 PM Flag

    Huma/Novo needs to be administered 1 hour before the meal. IF for some reasons, a patient miscalculated the carb. When calculated more than taken, hypo will occur and crackers are needed to avoid hypo; When calculated less than taken, correction dose is needed, yeah, another shot.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 12, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    They do not have to cover but they have to physically return the shares borrowed. I see no reasons still keeping a short position. BoA is buying at $4-$4.6 range for bond conversion. That tells BoA is expecting the PPS will get higher not lower. Then why still being short?

    In the past 10 days, PPS was played, so someone got huge cheap shares plus loads of $5 calls 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jun 5, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    More than that. Wholesale price $9.27 for 20U per day. So we are looking at $3380 per year per user.

    3.1 million by $3383 means 10.5 billion. with roughly 25% royalty rate, It is about 2.6 billion to MNKD. MNKD's only cost is manufacturing and it only pays 35% of it. So the profit will be at least 2 billion even adding general and administrative etc. Affrezza alone will make MNKD worth $50 billion. How about TS platform? Double that figure to $100 billion and totalling at $150 billion? $300/SH?

    Shorts are playing with the fire.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • on a trip together. Gut's feeling is that T1 patients are very frustrated about treating the disease. When mentioned Afrezza, the response was something like "oh, another drug?". Two messages to me: 1. patients are loosing confidence with the medical community; 2. SNY has a lot of home works to do. Educating Endos is just the beginning, educating patients with the great results the early adopters have shown will see huge impact.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How many shares does Al Have ??

    by bmcgoo_03 Aug 7, 2015 11:03 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 7, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    Per the latest 13G/A, Al owns about 166.6 million shares altogether for himself, Mann's Group and Mann's Living Trust. From here, figure out how much Al will accept the BO price. I say $12 is the low ball one given the market condition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 10, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    That is what I am thinking exactly. By collecting the interest via lending the shares to the shorts, longs are hurting ourselves.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's not an easy prescription

    by dinh2000long Aug 5, 2015 11:00 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 5, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Dinh, let me answer you the diff among Afrezza and Exubera here. This link is the URL to Exubera's insert.
    wwwDOTaccessdataDOTfdaDOTgov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2006/021868lbl.pdf

    1. PK profile:
    "In clinical studies in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, after inhalation of EXUBERA,
    serum insulin reached peak concentration more quickly than after subcutaneous injection of
    regular human insulin, 49 minutes (range 30 to 90 minutes) compared to 105 minutes (range 60
    to 240 minutes), respectively" Do you know the number of Afrezza? 15-20 minutes compared to 30-90 minutes.

    2. Dosage:
    Exubebra -- in mg, how do you measure it?
    Afrezza -- in pre-measured cartridge

    3. Size:
    Exubera -- football size
    Afrezza -- whistle size

    4. Tail time:
    Afrezza -- 1 hour
    Exubera -- not available, using 3 times the time needed to peak, it will be 2.5 hours (90min-270min)

    Beyond all the above, clinical trials freezes a lot of factors by comparing one factor at a time. In real life, the story is different. Imagine two inhaled ED drugs, one football size, one whistle size. In clinical trials, there may be no different. In real life, the difference will be so large. Anyone who has to inhale something of a football size in front of his partner, his performance won't be good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 10, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Bump

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • On a low volume down day with news positive or negative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Should be out now. Weird.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stiff Upward resistance at 4.44

    by sadoxjeans Jul 31, 2015 10:47 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jul 31, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    That is the preset floor price for BoA. Just need to wait 8 more days until 08/12/2015. Short's last chance to cover at this low.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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