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Discovery Laboratories Inc. Message Board

mkmnymklv 71 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 11, 2014 11:01 AM Member since: Aug 20, 2012
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  • Both MNKD and SNY announced the partnership. But Greenhill said nothing about it. Is Greenhill not part of this? Looks like so. What does that mean? We do now that the SNY deal does not prevent Al from selling the MNKD as long as the then existing contracts are honored. SNY only has the global commercial rights for Afrezza, nothing else.

    As I said earlier, Al got a very good deal. Suppose Afrezza reaches 10 billion sales world wide at peak (reality there with SNY), 40% profit margin will lead 1.4 billion profit (not revenue b/c Afrezza is not free to SNY plus MNKD has no marketing cost) to MNKD, PE 20 will yield 28 billion cap, $70 pps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $150 Million upfront

    by georgesmarsh Aug 11, 2014 11:13 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 11, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Some big money was deeply in short and need to cover. Some other big money is waiting a better point to get in and realize 20-50% gains. it is big money's game.

    After the CC, I am expecting some upgrades from a few of the big moneys.

    After all, the news is great. 35% of profit sharing? Most other firms could only get to the mid-upper teens. MNKD's cost is virtually zero. Read this quote carefully, "Under a separate supply agreement, MannKind will manufacture Afrezza at its manufacturing facility in Danbury, Connecticut."

    MNKD's buying insulin, making Afrezza all are on MNKD's own. However, MNKD is to supply to SNY and the deal is from separate agreement. What does that mean? MNKD will not supply Afrezza to SNY for free. Assuming Al will at least add some minimal profit to cover the head counts.

    So MNKD will have zero expense related to Afrezza starting from 01/01/2014. MNKD will see positive cash flow starting from Q12015 with Afrezza alone. Al still owns the rights of Afrezza and TO.

    Assuming $5 billion peak sales in US alone and 40% margin, at 35% profit sharing, it is already $700 million. At forward PE=20, that is $14 billion cap or $35 PPS. If the rest of the world make the other $5 billion sales, $70 PPS. Plus Al still has the TO to collect loyalties.

    Let big money do the work and the future of MNKD is promising.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • An M&A of $20-$30 billion will take time. It will take the corporate lawyer weeks to go over all the documents and we are in slow summer season. As I said in another post, just try to sell a used car at KBB value, see how long it takes. A quick deal could not be a good deal. Some "smart" dude is playing hard to drive down the PPS in order to get in at cheaper level. Good luck.

    If you look at the fundamentals, things are very promising. TO technology alone will worth more than the current market cap at $8 pps. Afrezza has the potential of the best selling drug ever in history and even a conservative estimate of $5-6 billion peak sales, the PPS is already $20-$30 billion or $50-$60 PPS.

    MNKD is not interested in secondary offering, we all know the current cash level can only sustain them to the end of Q3, Plus MNKD initiated all the activities toward launching Afrezza, deal will be coming very shortly.However, demanding it be done today or Monday is kind of naïve unless you have an agenda.

    On the other hand, PPS could shoot to $12 again on Tuesday after the CC. investors with reasonable knowledge of market dynamics will listen carefully what Al has to say and how he says it. Any clue leading to a deal soon will warrant the 50% surge.

    If the PPS is driven down further, will add more. Cash is the king, luckily 2/3 of my portfolio is still cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. Al made the right decision by partnering with SNY. You have to make Afrezza a success story before you can reap the gains. Alliance with SNY gives Afrezza the best chance toward success. I have to admit, Al's intelligence is above all of us on this board. Remember DNDN, AMRN, ARNA. They all have great product, but wrong partnership or no partnership have killed the company.

    2. When Afrezza touch the accumulated $1 billion sale (18-24 months) and beyond, both TO and MNKD will become very attractive. The inhaled GLP-1 will have even larger market base than Afrezza. By licensing GLP-1 on TO, MNKD will worth more than today's cap. The success of Afrezza will trigger BP's attempting of taking over MNKD (Al will be 90?). By then, BP will have to agree with MNKD's asking.

    3. No kidding, MNKD will stay at this level for long. Al acquired TO for $1 billion 9 years ago. With Afrezza's approval, the validated TO platform today alone will worth more than $3 billion or $8 pps.

    4. Saw the fool's survey (forgot the details), the market is really expecting MNKD entering 2015 at above $15 pps.

    5. Was holding on 03/31/2014 when it hit $4. Held today through the difficult time when it hit $7.22. if it did hit $7 and below, will add more.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mkmnymklv by mkmnymklv Jun 24, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Some key points from the meeting

    1. Partnership will be announced shortly, no intention to equity market (this is new)
    2. Further label expansion (already had H&N, must be broader range sentinel lymph node detection) on 10/14/2014. (Advise to look at wiki to understand what it means)
    3. EMA approval for Breast Cancer, Melanoma, H&N
    4. Market size for B/M/H&N, US 350K, EU 500K -- LS for these alone $255 million potential
    5. Broader range SLND, Us/EU 3-4 million cases per year
    6. Manocept is LS based (do not understand much, sounds like LS + added agents), great potential in RA diagnose
    7. Manocept (LS+agents ?) can treat a disease in addition to diagnose it (? I could be wrong)
    8. Adam F is a liar (my call, not the CEO)
    9. NAVB has a new 3 target of $25 (from me)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 12, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    I bumped your post so it can be on top. But your reasons are not right. For those who really hates this stock, they should have been gone for good. Why are they here, they want to get in for cheap. If Afrezza does not have the potential to make $10 billion sales, you won't be able to see this many nay sayers here. The fact MNKD attracted this much attention has told me something. They have the deep pocket, let them load up. what else you can do? Those who sold in the past two days due to panic will regret in long term. There was an old Chinese saying: "As soon as a thing reaches its extremity, it reverses its course." Hope you understand it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If shorts can't cover?

    by dm97362 Jul 11, 2014 4:01 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jul 11, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    No, longs do not bear the economical burden for short's wrong doings. The shorts are borrowing the shares from their brokerage firms, not from the long's (at least not directly). If, say the if a brokerage firm sets the margin ration to 50%. If MNKD shoots to $20 on news, the shorts will loose everything but the brokerage firm will not be impacted. If MNKD shoots to $100 on news, the brokerage firm will sell the short's other assess, say holdings of GOOG or APPL. If the short has nothing else in his account, brokerage firm will issue collection letters and incur much higher interest. I believe margin loan is not secured loan, so the brokerage firm will have to write it off if the shorts have nothing left.

    In reality, the shorts are those hedge funds and they do not place all eggs in one basket. Say MNKd only takes 1-2% of their portfolio, even if MNKD shoots to $100, they will sill have something left to pay. Also, hedge funds will hedge their position with options.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jun 27, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    $20 billion price tag for any potential buyers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Off-loaded OREX for some nominal gains (w/o loss after commission, not too bad). This #$%$ has another 20% downward pressure.

    Need to get real about weight loss drugs. Even though the obesity is huge, but those who will be relying on drugs plus can afford them will be much smaller. When choose to buy a burger for lunch or a pill to loss 5% of the body weight, how many Americans will choose the later?

    Need to get real. OREX will touch $500 million cap, another 20% down pressure. Osbourne has been trapped in long ARNA and that why he keep writing the #$%$.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jul 8, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    I'm holding and actually added more. I was holding on 03/31/2014 when the shorts pushed it down to $4. My reasoning are:

    1. FDA approved two weeks earlier before July 4th Holiday. MNKD would have had the script ready for press conference but they cannot read it in public before the final signature of whoever that partner or buyer is.

    2. The deal has been worked by Green Hill for nearly a year and MNKD was "happy" with Green Hill per the last quarterly call.

    3. If a deal is pending FDA July 15th decision, those who need to sign it would simply go to their summer vacation without thinking about it. I would do so myself. Why miss the each for the July 4th while FDA's decision will be on July 15th?

    4. Next week will be very interesting. July 18 is the day that option expires. Most likely, good news will come out in the week of July 21. You know how Wall Street works.

    Holding strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The largest transactions in 2014 alone so far:

    1. Forest Laboratories Inc: $28 billion sold to Actavis plc
    2. Safeway Inc: $10

  • Those stay within the crowd will be safe. Think it twice, anything negative has happened? None. The fall was planned and if there were no such an SNY deal, it could have felt further. Some big money sold around $4 in hoping PPS go to $2 but AdvCom smashed their dream. You heard a smelly fish said this will be down 90% to $1, right?

    But for a real investor, I still believe Al got the best deal he could. His ultimate goal is to get Afrezza a huge success. Does he care too much about PPS? No, I believe he cares more of those poor DM patients, Above all, care those patients are his number one priority.

    See what Adam say this time, "bloated balance sheet" to blame. Wow, he just realized that. What a #$%$. MNKD's balance sheet has been like this for long. Where was he weeks before? Do we need this kind of ANALyst to tell us buy or sell? Actually, the balance sheet looks much better with the 150 million upfront.

    Ultimately, if SNY can realize $200 million sales in 2015, peak sale in US to $3 billion will be widely accepted by the street. Along with EU approval, peak sale of $6 billion will be accepted. Equivalent 25% royalty ratewill mean $1.5 billion income for MNKD. Remember, MNKD has zero cost related to afrezza, i.e. 1.5 billion profit or a $30 billon cap. You figure out the PPS in 24 month.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • No such a thing. The 90 days extension was more likely to wait the result of LIGHT study. Nothing granted. Saw EXEL? Welcome to September.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Greenhill -- pretty impressive in A&M business

    by mkmnymklv Jul 29, 2014 1:41 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jul 29, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    1. Forest Laboratories Inc: $28 billion sold to Actavis plc
    2. TUI Travel Plc, $11 billion to TUI AG
    3. Safeway Inc: $10 billion to Albertsons
    4. AA Limited, $7.2 billion to private investors
    5. hibu plc, $3.6 billion
    6. QR Energy, LP, $3 billion
    7. Firth Rixson Limited, $2.9 billion to Alcoa
    8. Frank Russell Company, $2.7 billion to London Stock Exchange

    Greehill knows the stuff and MNKD seems to be happy with Greenhill. And the most impressive this year will be;

    0. MNKD, $30 billion to GOOG, dream coming true soon...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts

    by delsoca Aug 8, 2014 10:03 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Aug 8, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Agreed. Afrezza will be a huge success. The theory is that, If someone is sick once a while and he/she goes to see a doctor, what medicine he/she will get will be doctor dependent. Does he/she care what it is or ask alternatives?

    However, for DM patients, things are different. Deeply sorry to know that DM patients have to administrate insulin injections 4-6 times a day, 365 days a year for the rest of their lives. With this level of activities, DM patients will care what medicine they want to use. If doctor does not prescribe, patients will ask. I do believe Afrezza's superiority to others through my own DD. My conclusion is that MNKD will be extremely successful.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • as evidenced by the Fool's article and hedge's downfall call. Someone is so so so desperate. Hold it strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The news is really any day starting on Monday. More importantly, when deal is announced, no one (I mean the hedges) can control the PPS because nominal PPS=$$$transaction/shares. And, the open market PPS will be at least 20% higher due to short covering. Do you really think MNKD will not worth $3 billions (the current market cap)? What happens if some BP takes out $15 billion for it?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You know it worth a lot more. The TS alone will worth more than $3 billion, no kidding. As someone has said: "hedge may win a battle but Al will win the War". For me, this is my last post and I will not pay attention to MNKD except setting the UTC order of selling at $15.

    Since this wil be my last post this year for MNKD, here is what I think the deal.

    1. SNY was thinking of taking over MNKd, but the offer could be at somewhere 5-6 billion (or 100% premium), but Al turned it down because Al was looking somewhere in $10 billion.

    2. The second option for both of the firms is the partnership. And this came at a very shot time frame, so short such that the CC cann not talk a lot of things in details plus Greenhill keeps silent.

    3. A lot of details are still worked out for the deal, but ultimately, SNY will take over MNKD in 2016. The deal has mitigated some risks for both of the firms. SNY wants to see Afrezza did sell well. MNKD wants to show that Afrezza does sell well.

    4. If Afrezza reaches $250 million sales in 2015, it will be very convincing that it will be selling $2.5 Billion and more in US plus 2.5 Billion more in EU.

    5. MNKD's capacity at launch will be able to produce 500 million cartridges yearly. Assume SNY can sell 50% of those, that is about $250 million revenue.

    6. Just look for guidance in Q3 from both MNKD and SNY, I will not surprised to see this forecasting.

    7. Good luck longs, see ya 2016 @ $60 pps.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Approval with Warning?w

    by pretzel223 Sep 9, 2014 2:13 PM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Sep 9, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    Looks like it is the case. Could drift down below $5 and settle at $4.5. These days ...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Greenhill & Co.

    by jstokcton Jul 1, 2014 9:29 AM
    mkmnymklv mkmnymklv Jul 1, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Making sense and best post today! Actually, I am thinking that the deal may have bee there and just need a signature. As you have said, the early approval plus the July 4th vacation, those who need to sign it may not be in the office now. Greenhill has been working for MNKD for almost a year and things may already be in the place.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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