So you believe with less production and less product available.... lower prices.... US hydrocarbons will be competitive with the Saudis who are selling product at about par to WTI including transport with a far better export infrastructure in place
I don't see it and export of US product was the topic.... we agree that producers are gonna get killed.... I believe that will have an impact on the mid stream players....
another point of agreement might be as I originally said was the need to get past the election... it wouldn't be the first time an administration engaged in policies that reduced the cost of energy in an attempt to get an edge at the polls... and I really don't want to get into the politics of it
Export of US product will certainly not be a robust money maker in the current environment.. it will be a costly endeavor when going head to head with the Saudis who produce at about $25 bbl and currently are showing a willingness to undercut all others...
The Saudis motivations have been the subject more articles than I can count on Bloomberg over the past 2 months.... yes all of it speculation... but something is motivating them in their current policies... and its those policies that are the root of the current energy meltdown which affects all energy related companies
The point is which fields reduce production with $70 oil... how will that drop in production affect supply available for export?
What will the demand be on the world mkt for US exports IF the Saudi's continue to sell oil at a discount to Brent? That's the status of the mkt today... they are selling at about $3 below Brent including transportation to port.... How would WTI be competitive after transportation costs are added on
The producer stocks will see further slaughter @ $70 WTI.... profit will evaporate.....IT will impact the frackers ability to finance their wells and when interest rates go up the equation is compromised further.... the pipes are not going to go dry but IF a fracker goes belly up those contracted dollars for capacity will disappear along with the domestic product
So long as the Saudis and OPEC flood the market with cheap oil all energy companies will suffer... mid stream MLPs are not immune
The stories in the media that suggest the administration is in cahoots with the Saudis to hurt the Russians and Iran would indicate a very myopic administration who's actions will hurt the US economy as much as the Russian economy... Then there are the stories that say the Saudis are motivated by their desire to cripple the US frackers..... what ever it is the frackers are feeling the pain..... Energy is a very large % of US GDP and a huge chunk of that is in jeopardy along with a massive amount of jobs
Im not commenting on EPD... Im concerned about how the BIG picture is bound to affect EPD
I know ya'll think I'm insane but just take a look at LINE and how that has reacted over the last 30-45 days
Energy export from the US may be going the way of the Dodo before the first Dodo is hatched.... If the Saudis keep their present stance not only will they be undercutting US energy producers on price.... fracking and the product available to export will be in decline.... not quite going the way of the Dodo but it will fell like it to some of the producers
Condensate only exists in great quantity due to fracking.... oil goes to $70 and we will see a good deal less US production
Major implications for the economy... producers and yes the mid stream companies because when producers that have contracts on pipe to ship go belly up.... those contracts/revenue will disappear
Lets hope oil rebounds towards $90 after the election
on the contrary.... cheap oil will destroy Telsa.... I'll take a BMW over a Telsa any day... and the Beemer will be cheaper to drive.... not to mention far safer
so you pumped it to retirees while you were dumping it and denying its risk
What a guy
Hey Stevie.... Hows that MLPL that you recommended for retires.... I know you said you weren't interested in the unit value... yield only.... but hows that 30+% haircut feel
Hey.... some may want to nibble at MLPL when its yield goes to 15% in a few days
Well since the Fed is run by investment bankers... its the firms that they used to work for that know their direction before the rest of us... and rates have really only one direction to move.... and its what we are constantly monitoring Fed speak
There appears to be pressure from many different events...
The Saudi action of no production cuts (vs their lie last month of a cut) will drive oil down to the point where smaller frackers fold...
Its a problem because there will be no product to ship.... even though the producers are committed to pay for capacity whether they ship or they don't. If a fracker that with guaranteed capacity goes belly up those are dollars the pipelines can't immediately replace in the current environment
This oil glut is going to be a rather large issue because it has the potential to trigger a steep recession.... the GDP decrease from reduced production and lower commodity prices will be significant... it will result in serious job losses throughout the economy
I can't believe this is what the Saudi's want because it will result in low cost oil for a few years whereas a slight dip in production would bring them far more revenue overall
As this unfolds the specter of increase rates will dissipate but we have to wonder how many bullets the Fed has left in its gun.... QE 4 anyone???????
reduced production..... exports
But exports will drive down the price of oil worldwide... and expensive fracked production doesn't make sense at lower oil prices
and that would be the investment banks that hold the massive positions.... who are not afraid of paying the tax... believe that interest rates will be going up... and are taking their profit
rates up... MLPs down.... its always been that way
15% down in 2 weeks here at EPD... I think we could easily see a unit price below $30
again the only thing that stems the decline in unit value is a more aggressive growth in the distribution growth rate
IF you don't believe that EPD can trade to a 5+% yield... you probably never thought that EPD could go from less than 3.5% yield 2 weeks ago to its current 4.1%... and we got that 1/2 a cent in that time period
That's why this holder calls for a higher distribution
The capital outflows from Europe are what fed yesterdays ridiculous rally on the FED speak about interest rates
When we see "irrational exuberance" in the mkt the FED will act...
EPD may be the canary in the coal mine on this.... but many factors are at play..... first and foremost the collapse of the share price of energy producers (due to strong dollar)... this is dragging EPD downward with the sector
Strong dollar is really hurting the US energy industry... its crippling the price of WTI (and Brent) which has the oil frackers on the brink of losing money on every bbl.
Strong dollar is attracting foreign investment
Strong dollar means that US interest rates will rise
This creates a very tricky landscape for EPD to maneuver through in the near term
What I really wanted you to focus on first and foremost is the blowout preventer which is part of the well head and not part of the rig
Every well gets a brand spankin new one that conforms to new specs post Macando
If this is beyond your knowledge base why should anyone swallow anything else you post?
The risk with older rigs that have questionable blow out preventers is getting greater.
Cure your ignorance.... you post all day here as if you know something... you don't
research what you just said and cure your ignorance
and BTW older Rigs have the potential to work at a cheaper day rate at a profit than newer ones
The new ones have to have a rate that justifies the investment
there are some serious glut issues arising.... yet while they shouldn't affect EPD they sometimes can...
The Saudi's cut oil production in Aug by 40Kbbl/day... largest cut in a decade...
As to Nat Gas... they are producing so much to make up for last winters use the question is will they reduce production in time to prevent a glut.... there may be too many producing wells right now for that to be the case
Nat Gas could easily go into the low $3s
and yahoo is the worst offender... IF you pull EPD charts they appear to have split at a 1:4.... and the historical quote page is an out right joke
I'm thinking some of that rather large run was people thinking they were gonna get $2.88 on $40...
Some may have taken that profit and run
well your above facts are not in line with reality... and my sources feel that since ex div at least another 10 million shares have been sold short