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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

mktplyr517 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 30, 2015 11:31 AM Member since: Oct 12, 2001
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  • Reply to

    At about a twenty two month low.

    by dlw2244 Jul 21, 2015 12:21 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Jul 21, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    Its all about NGLs...

    and while the upcoming Q will not be stellar.... its not as bad as some would have it....

    Gut tells me it is slightly better than Q1....

  • Reply to

    Like rats on a sinking ship

    by chuck11262004 Jul 22, 2015 3:19 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Jul 22, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    It is no where near as simple as you suggest when a large % of the proceeds will be taxed at regular income rates

    Far better to be selling calls and or buying puts.... not a bad idea to go short against the box.... For all my criticism of EPD it will be back in the long term... it is the near term that is the issue....

    While oil and gas prices are the primary driver of this selloff Fed action continues to loom large... that can cause the selloff to accelerate.... or out of the blue... while the Fed is raising rates... energy could rally... completely negating the affect of a rate hike or we could see strength in the equity despite a rate hike

    It is impossible to read right now... but IF energy does not rally before a September hike in rates the pain will be much worse than it already is... there is also the factor that when rates rise the dollar will strengthen so oil will probably take a hit IF we don't see a shift in the supply demand issues

    I have been short against the box for some time... which is why its easier to swallow this... I will cover prior to ex-div and then decide what I want to do again there after

  • Well to start they could hit Saudi Arabia with a tarrif of 2Xswhat they discount Brent for when they sell it into the US market

    They are still selling at approx a $4 discount.... And since US refineries are set up to refine Heavier Brent it is cheaper to refine than WTI and LLS so the refineries jump at it with the discount vs the US crudes

    DC could suspend the crude export ban and export to Europe where there are refineries set to refine Lighter oils.... Send the POS Saudis a message.... Because IF we export light US grades to Europe the Saudis would be forced to discount to the WTI price.... See how the like selling at a discount to $45 instead of a discount to $52... Fight fire with fire

    But you would need an administration in power that is respected by the Saudis.... One that negotiates from a position of strenght.... Opps.... Really didnt want to reference Iran

  • Reply to

    EPD remains the

    by rpfla Jul 28, 2015 1:11 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Jul 30, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    NOTHING has fundamentally changed with EPD.

    while costs have dropped significantly and coverage of DCF remains very strong when a companies revenue is off by over 40% and the shares are off 30% its illogical to say that nothing has fundamentally changed

    This is not a short term movement... rate sensitive equities have a further drop ahead... a Fed move will hammer MLPs... unless there is a corresponding strong rally in energy commodities... I think energy commodity strength is still a ways off so we will probably see a FED move before the energy recovery

    There is a large fortune to be made if you get this timing right... good luck

  • and I was ranting and raving that EPD would not be immune....

    That GDP would take a huge hit... that the energy sector would see massive layoffs...

    and I was mocked.... told that consumer spending and retail jobs would make up for it..

    Here's a paragraph from Bloomberg today...
    150,000 Jobs
    Exxon, the biggest U.S. energy producer, reported July 31 its lowest profit since 2009 while No. 2 Chevron posted its worst results in 12 years. Chevron earlier last week said it would eliminate 1,500 jobs in an effort to cut $1 billion in spending.

    BP, Shell, Schlumberger Ltd. and Halliburton Co. have announced thousands of job cuts in recent weeks as they prepare for a prolonged stretch of low prices. Since the crude rout began last summer, the industry has eliminated 150,000 jobs, according to Graves & Co., a Houston-based adviser that has closely tracked the cutbacks

    I wonder how many $8.75/hr retail jobs were created to make up for that..... 150K $100K+ jobs that were lost...

    I wonder how many energy sector workers took those $8.75/hr jobs and if they did how their families are making out and whether their mtgs are being paid and new car... new appliances are being bought

    These issues do not even touch the effects on GDP but they should be evident to every EPD holder because EPDs revenues will be off $20 Billion this year... basically because of commodity pricing

    I ranted that the administration had very dirty hands in this... they want green energy... they continue to allow the Saudi's to engage in unfair trade practices by selling oil into the US at a discount to Brent....

    The Obama lovers told me what a boon cheap energy would be for the economy.... well gas where I live is about $3.25 gal as oil sits in the $40s... some savings.... less than $10 a week

    The libs need to wake up and understand that IF they win the WH again... its only going to wet far worse in this sector

  • Reply to

    Hey... remember when EPD was at $40....

    by mktplyr517 Aug 3, 2015 9:32 AM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 3, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    EPD has virtually no short interest... 8.7 million on 2 billion shares... 4/10s of a single percent... CHK and RIG both have short interest in excess of 30%

    shorting has zero impact on EPD... I would hate to see what would happen if shorting did occur

    Distribution will continue to be paid.... I would not drip... hoard cash for a # in the low $20s

  • as an offset to our debt... while crushing the Saudi's policies...

    That makes way too much sense for anyone in DC to go along with

  • Reply to


    by dlw2244 Aug 3, 2015 4:16 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 5, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    their earnings, DCFs, payout ratios, effect of oil/gas price on businesses and cannot come up with one good reason as to why there has been such a quick and massive selloff across the board

    REVENUE..... REVENUE.... REVENUE.... its off 40+%

  • Reply to

    This is what happens when

    by dlw2244 Aug 5, 2015 1:09 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 5, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    You do realize that the short interest in EPD is 8 million on 2 billion which is like 4/10s of a %

  • SEC doc filed yesterday after the close...

    The likes of Brian Nelson will feast on this...

    $2 Billion @ $27 is 74 mil shares

    $2 billion @ the highs of $41 is 49 million shares

    Which is why I believe that more DCF should be directed towards defending the units value

    That excess 25 million shares will cost $32+ million in distributions a year...

    I just think had the distribution been 1/8 of a cent greater over the past year... with another 1/8 given this past Q the units would be in the mid $30s at worst shaving the excess by about 1/2

  • mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 11, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    It also means that yesterdays action was manipulated by the underwiters... the list of which is impressive

    In EPDs bull phase over the past years secondary's were mere blips on the radar.... we can only pray that this one garners the same results

  • mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 11, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    and before I'm castigated the difference is $37.5 million + in distributions /yr

  • and they toss out a fluff piece bone ahead of pricing

  • mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 11, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    No difference in my book... the stock will trade down to factor in the dilution which is the same as a secondary discount

    75 million shares is alotta (that's Italian for many) buyers that have to be found

    This $2 billion is a whopping 4% dilution... which just happens to be the approximate pop the underwriters gave the units in their manipulation yesterday

  • mktplyr517 by mktplyr517 Aug 11, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    what IF the underwriters (or their clients) have naked short positions... which they can now just close at a whim without making open market purchases

    EPD has an insanely low reported short interest (8mil) for an equity that has taken the beating it has

  • Reply to

    Safest Place Now

    by plutus1964 Aug 12, 2015 2:12 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 13, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    The production and injection #s show that there is a ton of Nat Gas flowing right now..

    and that in a nut shell is the prolem

  • mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 21, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    ATM means that the shares can be sold in small batches at really any price... at any time

    And we don't find out the damage till after the fact.... how much dilution came from the $2 billion

    I'd much rather see that EPD could line up buyers on a secondary at a discount

    Right now we can only conclude the institutions that would normally buy into a secondary have no interest in buying... that with the miniscule short interest those institutions
    are the parties that have been selling

    It would be a blessing at this time if they were able to float out a bunch of those ATM shares on the Mexico news that gave us the 5% pop earlier this week

  • mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 21, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    SEC filings do not lie.... in fact its a felony to lie in an SEC filing

    EPD has a $2 Billion offering on the table... dated 8/10... whether its ATM or a secondary is beyond the point... and my belief is that a secondary is better than ATM

  • That we saw today will take further toll on the sector.....

    Caution is necessary as lower share price could come with lower yield....

    We are in but the eye of the storm.... I would only make limit offers below the bid because with the lack of liquidity you can take it hard in the rear as evidenced by Mondays close

  • Reply to

    end of the oil age...

    by dl9bas Aug 25, 2015 12:56 PM
    mktplyr517 mktplyr517 Aug 26, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Those batteries will start more fires than the local fire department can handle....

    Imagine... your Chinese made solar panels store power in your Chinese made batteries..... you should have as much faith in that working as you have in the Chinese stock market not being rigged

    If you haven't learned anything about Chinese quality from all the Chinese made Krrap your wife bought from Bed Bath and Beyond over the past decade... and now sits in a local landfill....well then you are clueless

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