Its a shame in a way
We shouldn't care if he is successful or not with his new company because the net result will be his bidding on properties will double or triple the value of CHKs holdings
The last hurrah before the next EPS?
And their really not having any success in driving the shares down!... With gas trading the way it is they are setting themselves up for an Ackman/Herbalife event
I actually find you amusing... you took issue with me when I was posting that EPD need to bump the growth rate of its distribution about a year ago... my argument was a declining rate was as bad as no increase..... today your comments appear to be contrary to that....
About 3 months ago... you all but mocked me when I said on the NS bd that NS would be an interesting play at an 11% yield.... yes it did "drop" to a 12% yield but had a massive rally off those levels and just last week was kissing $54 before pulling back (that would equate to a 50% surge in that time frame)
Relative to the posturing... ever consider that the Kinder cronies (research Kinders "bedfellows"..... including the criminal thieves at Goldman Sachs) would buy El Passo on this bad news...... and then Goldman's investment banking division justifies a 1 for 2 as being a good deal for KMP and the "street" cheers
Kinder is no Saint... his ties to big Money and big time politics are legendary.... the odds that Kinder's friends buy now.... for a windfall tomorrow would be SOP
With you being so up on MLPs.... do you know who made the real big money when EPD re-absorbed DEP.... was that coincidence... How much did Kinder and Goldman (and friends) make when they took the Kinder GP private only to take it public again a few years later?... isn't it something close to $10 billion.... games in this space are the norm.... and rarely is "what is good for KMP" even considered
You have your opinions.... and I have mine... I think this trades to ~8% yield.... then its time for double fisted buying..... because I'll take an 8% yield while I wait for the "Big Boys" to initiate their rigged game...
You can adopt your thinking to the rules that the insiders play by or be left standing in the cold thinking "I wish I had"
Short is certainly not easy money from here on out.... currently yielding 7.5% and they fully cover the distribution.... add that to the costs of your short and it costs shorts money from here on out unless it drops MORE than an additional 10%... in very short order
So that means that smart short money starts to cover and any weakness will attract yield play investors... that's more than enough to stabilize the unit price
Factor in that any morning shorts can wake up and EPB will be absorbed into KMP at the equivalent of $40 per share of EPB and there is a short nightmare in the making...
While I still see further weakness it certainly isn't "easy short money" as you state... in fact shorts will lose $ to costs moving forward
Unlikely that they issue fractional shares... the cynical side of me believes that the distribution freeze is just posturing so that weak hands sell on "the bad news" while others start positions for soon to come good news
before yesterdays "bad news" the shares were exactly at a 2 for 1 exchange rate and there would definitely be some serious savings (operational) when operated as a single entity
Like I said I don't own now and it would take further weakness for my greedy self to buy in
This certainly fits Buffets saying.... "when people get scared..... you should get greedy"... its exactly what I intend to do
and its the first half of his saying that has me waiting cause the markets are frothy (when people get greedy... you should get scared)
That's where ETP was stuck while its distribution was stagnant...
But I think this is going to be absorbed by KMP.... on a 1 for 2 basis... today that would give you $80 in KMP equity and $5.58 in 2014 distributions which is a 15% bump in distribution along with an 17% gain on the equity on todays share price..... 23% gain if it were to trade down to $32.50.... makes a lot of sense to roll it into KMP
Will be buying on further weakness
3 months down the road the div will be $3 or 5.8% on todays $52
a month ago... prior to the blowout EPS and the announced increase in divi the analysts were basically telling us that rig should trade just below a 5% divi... all things being equal the new $3 divi is 5% on a $60 stock...
Nothing that was learned yesterday was even close to new news
Analysts won't even concede that... all part of the smoke and mirrors that they use to buy shares on the cheap
We should be treading water at about $55 until the next "catalyst" which will be further info on the MLP
Finds a way to end up in the crapper
Who says a rising tide lifts all ships?
changes guidance or days out of service #s that have been out there..... announced as recently as 2 days ago in the fleet rpt
Knee-jerk reaction that hits right in the chin
They really need to comprehend what they are telling analysts.... did they really need to spell out that RIGs idle drillships amounted to 1/3 of all idled ships... let the douchbag-analyss figure the %s themselves
Yeah it was surprise to me... especially with the influx of cash that he had.... as my other post pointed out... he dumped another $200 million into CHK bringing his investment over $1.7 billion... (It was also a surprise that Carl made his 13-F filing on RIG 2 days before he filed on the rest of his holdings)
I think that would indicate Icahn thinks CHK will be a bigger mover sooner than RIG...
Icahn's BOD win places one of his guys who sits on the Bd at CHK on RIGs BOD...
Icahn is obviously bullish on energy producers as his investment in RIG and CHK is now about $3 billion
anyhow I would have thought that a significant increase in holdings would have moved the stock but him increasing his CHK position by over 10% had no effect on CHK today
I'm gonna be a buyer of more CHK on any further weakness if it happens.... CHK has a tendency to make moves on cold winter weather so there is an opportunity over there
I misspoke... the $500 mil gain in Icahn's CHK positions was $300mil in gains and $200 mil new money
although he did not increase RIG this Q I can't help but think there will be a large increase here in the future
Wanted to include that Carl's put close to $500 million in CHK last Q.... CHK is setting up for another run well into the $30s
Carl has more than $1.7 bil in CHK.... which is close to $700 mil more than he has in RIG
Lotsa rumors about CHK and it being taken out by a major oil company...
Could be an interesting opportunity currently trading at $26 off of last weeks 52 week high of $29
EPS report was strong but misinterpreted... CHK sold of on guidance that increased 2013 production... but noted that 4Q production would slip slightly in Q$ due to cold weather... a normal 4Q event
at the offering price..... Just unusual....
It may be that because the units are so high that $1.20 under the offering just appears to be more than it really is
Its a big day 3 days after the news
IF we see an increase in Icahn ownership with the filing we're gonna pop yet again...
It would be insane to be short tonight