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Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (FOLD) Message Board

ml_expert 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 8, 2014 10:10 AM Member since: Nov 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    FDA Meeting...

    by bionerd51 Apr 8, 2014 9:13 AM
    ml_expert ml_expert Apr 8, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    After all this wait a PIII without AA WILL NOT make any sense. If they were going to do PIII why wait 1.5 years. How will FDA explain this to the public and more importantly parent and the kids? I see that now most people, even the die hard Eteplirsen supporters are inclined toward PIII? Am I getting this right Tred, Bio? Bio: What happened in the past few days that made you come up with this email this morning?

  • Reply to

    Adam F,,,

    by jemy.hassan Apr 1, 2014 10:01 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Apr 1, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    His point is that AF was touting EXEL over ARIA about 2 months ago, when the first buy-out rumors came out. Back then EXEL was around $7 now EXEL is $3.5, ARIA is around $8.5. EXEL is good but with everything tied to cometriq it is way riskier than ARIA. ARIA has a better pipeline and most importantly has a drug with a projected peak sales over $400M. AF has made so many mistakes this past year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is ENTA worth

    by whatdiduexpect2003 Feb 18, 2014 4:59 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 26, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    I noticed I didn't take taxes into account. Even with taxes I think the fair price would be $80.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Investing in Stocks

    by stockword_2014 Feb 26, 2014 3:00 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 26, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    Sorry but I don't agree you on dilution. Dilution means dilution. You get less share of CHTP future earnings, period. I hope they will sell the company. I don't know if CEO is on the board but it is not the management to decide whether or not they sell the company. It is the board of directors ...

  • Reply to

    When is the next catalyst?

    by stocktechdoc Feb 26, 2014 8:53 AM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 26, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    ADCOM and PDUFA date are known catalysts but ABVIE may buy ENTA any time. I don't think they will wait until PDUFA.

  • Reply to

    What is ENTA worth

    by whatdiduexpect2003 Feb 18, 2014 4:59 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 25, 2014 10:46 PM Flag

    $180 million in royalties should translate to at least $120 share price. ENTA annual operating expenses is $25-$30 million. So that means ENTA will post $150 million/year once 450 reaches peak sales. EPS will be around $8. conservative 15 PE will take this to $120. Am I missing something? this sounds like too good to be true.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ml_expert ml_expert Feb 25, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    Clearly, analysts know what they are talking about. That 640 number was before the Iclusig sales were halted. After the halt only about 300 of them remained on the drug through IND application. So, total paid patient number by the end of Q1 14 will be around 250 at most. That is why revenue estimates by analysts are dismal. I think without a second indication for Iclusig or AP113 getting approved it would be a while before ARIA can become profitable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • ml_expert ml_expert Feb 25, 2014 12:56 AM Flag

    I think if the number is above 1,000 patients now that would bode extremely well for Iclusig going forward.

    One thing I don't understand is how analysts come up with their revenue projections for 2014. The average estimate is $81.7M for 2014. That level of revenue can be achieved with 750 patients on drug. Given that 640 patients was already on drug as of 11/1/2013, I would think $81.7M would be extremely conservative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NPSP went from 8 to 39 in 1 year

    by fedrally001 Feb 23, 2014 11:26 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 24, 2014 12:56 AM Flag

    Agreed. NPSP is a different story but what about AEGR? It is similar to CHTP. I was in $15 and out $22 in 2012. The stock went up all the way to $99 in 6 months after FDA approval. Before ADCOM AEGR market cap was around $250M.

  • ml_expert ml_expert Feb 22, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Let's hope they don't announce a secondary this week. If they do chances of buy out will be slim.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ml_expert ml_expert Feb 20, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    If I believe this will be $20 by the end of the year why should I sell now for a small profit and pay 35% taxes on top off that. It just does not make sense to me.

  • Reply to

    Ponatinib in Liver cancer

    by fikimiki10 Feb 20, 2014 9:39 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 20, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    Great read.

    Half of the patients treated in this study responded to either ponatinib (typically used for certain types of leukemia) or pazopinib (a kidney cancer drug), depending on the genetic alterations identified through sequencing.

    “In 3 out of the 6 patients we analyzed, we found compelling, treatable and unexpected genetic alterations that would never have been found by normal testing methods for cholangiocarcinoma,” says Mitesh Borad, M.D., a Mayo Clinic oncologist and lead author of the paper. “We treated these three patients with drugs that attack these genetic alterations and saw tumor shrinkage. This gives us hope for better treatments for this aggressive, hard-to-treat cancer.”

    Because of these encouraging early results, the team of 49 doctors and researchers proposes large-scale clinical trials to test EFGR and FGFR inhibitors as possible treatments for biliary tract cancers that harbor mutations in these genes and pathways.

    “Our results demonstrate that if we find the right molecular context, more appropriate therapies can be chosen that improve outcomes,” says John Carpten, Ph.D., TGen deputy director of basic science and director of TGen’s Integrated Cancer Genomics Division, and the study’s senior author. “We now hope to design larger clinical studies to treat patients’ tumors harboring these novel genomic aberrations to further explore the precise extent of clinical benefit for patients with primary or advanced cholangiocarcinoma.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's the next biotech monster?

    by helioshobra Feb 18, 2014 7:35 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 19, 2014 12:00 AM Flag

    Sorry, but I don't buy it. If inhaled versions of drugs meant something ALXA would not be where it is now. I hate to say but I totally agree with AF on MNKD. The ADCOM will be an interesting one.

  • Reply to

    odds of possible outcomes and price predictions

    by ml_expert Feb 14, 2014 12:52 AM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 18, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    Based on today's Northera approval and the following statement from FDA I am now more optimistic about option 1. I am revising my odds as follows. This is a huge change in the odds. I already put my money where my mouth is and tripled my position in SRPT this past week.

    1. Odds 50%, Price: $100
    2. Odds 40%, Price: flat to up slightly
    3. Odds 10%, Price: $15-20 range
    4. Odds 0%, Price: $10

    FDA announcement:

    The FDA is approving Northera under the accelerated approval program, which allows for approval of a drug to treat a serious disease based on clinical data showing that the drug has an effect on an intermediate clinical measure (in this case, short-term relief of dizziness) that is reasonably likely to predict the outcome of ultimate interest (relief of dizziness during chronic treatment). This program provides patient access to promising drugs while the company conducts post-approval clinical trials to verify the drug's clinical benefit, which for this approval is a long-term effect on patient symptoms in NOH, a chronic disease.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's the next biotech monster?

    by helioshobra Feb 18, 2014 7:35 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 18, 2014 11:07 PM Flag

    I agree about SRPT but MNKD is not anywhere revolutionary. SRPT will be my next biotech play. I am betting on a surprise FDA nod for AA.

  • I will add to my position but not sure what will be a good price. I think anything below $7 will be a bargain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EARNINGS !!!! JUST REPORTED

    by samsa1 Feb 18, 2014 7:26 AM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 18, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    Based on the sales potential of Focalin IPCI is currently very undervalued. Fair price would be $8-$10.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good Candidates – Long Side Only

    by ice99pinguin Feb 15, 2014 6:46 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 16, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    ARIA is my largest holding as well. The stock is very undervalued based on my analysis. You can read my analysis in the ARIA board.

  • Reply to

    ARIA valuation assuming the following?

    by mulanoom2007 Feb 15, 2014 12:13 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 16, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    The 2500 number certainly didn't come in my dreams. It is based on increasing market penetration potential of Iclusig. If you look at the recent ARIAD presentation in JP Morgan healthcare conference the company estimates an increase of 1300 new patients annually in eligible population in just US. Multiply this with 3 to account for global patients. Use a market penetration rate of 60% and you will roughly come to 2500 number. You may argue that 60% market penetration is unrealistically high but given that the eligible patient population has no other option, I think 60% is still realistic.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ARIA valuation assuming the following?

    by mulanoom2007 Feb 15, 2014 12:13 PM
    ml_expert ml_expert Feb 16, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    My analysis does not take those into account but I don't think you can really model those with the information we have now. My analysis also assumes that rate of occurrence of CML stays the same going forward. Also some people on drug may die earlier than seven years and on on. There are several factors some known, some unknown that is not taken into account in my analysis. That is why you should take my analysis and any other analysis out there with a grain of salt. There is no way you can precisely predict the sales numbers seven years down the road. This is just a ballpark number.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

FOLD
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