In reviewing the Q3 report, I found the following paragraph outlining the current strategy of the board and the charter coverage over the next two years. Perhaps in the quarters to follow as the company continues it's dividend policy we might expect the PPS to appreciate to a level such as peer NMM. A share price of 2 gets this issue down to a 10% yield.....
"For the last few quarters the Board has expressed its concern about potential lower utilization of the dry bulk
The conservative chartering strategy has been followed up during the last quarter by taking additional
coverage. The Company has been positioned to meet a weaker freight market and declining asset prices.
For 2011 the Company has secured employment for 87 per cent of its Panamax fleet at $21,500 per day net
and 83 per cent of its Capesize fleet at $40,000 per day net. For 2012 corresponding numbers are 79 per
cent at $20,500 and 74 per cent at $40,000 respectively.
The entire newbuilding program has been fixed out on long term time charters except for four ice class
Panamaxes and two Capesizes."
Once the correct Dividend and yield info is attached to this issue we might get even more volume and appreciation as Golden Ocean will appear on the yield filters used by yield chasers. Here's an email response in relation to a note I sent to Yahoo Finance this week....
I understand that we are not reporting the dividend/yield for GDOCF.PK.
I apologize for any inconvenience this has caused you. We strive to keep
our information as accurate as possible, and I know it's frustrating to
encounter information that is out-of-date or incorrect.
I have reported this data error to our Product Team. We are still
investigating the cause and hope to have a resolution soon.
Again, I apologize for the inconvenience. If you have additional
questions or information about this issue, please reply referencing this
ticket number: 4257709.
Thank you again for contacting Yahoo! Finance.
Technically your broker is right, Too IS resposible for sending 1099 info...to your broker if you keep the shares held in street name.
My broker lists all my MLP distributions on a separate page as a basic cash accounting. AND, I also get a K1 from each company.
Bottom line, you should have had it reported somewhere on your brokerage statement. Did you receive distributions into the brokerage account in question last year? If so, then they should do basic reporting to you as your custodian, regardless of TOO.
By now you've probably viewed the Q4 presentation, www.teekayoffshore.com/documents_root/News%20Releases/TOO_Q4_ER_Pres.pdf
Page 14 tells the story 1.03 coverage using 37.7 million shares. Your numbers were flawed. The shuttle tankers hurt results this quarter. This should perk up as the year moves forward.
In the hope of starting an intelligent thread for the many lurkers on this board, what is your best guess for a Q4 dividend, if any at all? My personal view would be $.25, ramping up to $.40-$.50 in Q1. I base my guess on the Yahoo earning estimates (which I know can be way off), the Q3 earnings statement, and most importantly the inclusion of the two capes for all but 30 days of the quarter.
First off, a big thank you for your thoughtful and informative posts and blog. I have often looked for your thoughts on this and other driller boards that I lurk on.
Based on your knowledge of the offshore drillers, I'm surprised it has taken you so long to come around to Seadrill. I am a long time investor of Frontline and Ship Finance. That's where this story starts. The Seadrill model will be similiar to Frontline's. Namely, sale leaseback and the return of capital to shareholders as well as a significant dividend from operations. Also, Seawell, 80% owned by Seadrill,(they recently bought NE's North Sea rig service co.) will at some point be spun off to shareholders. Frontline did this with Ship Finance and most recently ITC.
Seadrill paid it's first ever dividend based on Q4 results recently. Many analysts have pointed out that the drillers are a logical sector for large dividends. Seadrill has already started down that path.
Yes, you must buy the shares on the OSLO. It's easy to buy through the international desk of your broker. 20 minute delay quotes are found at Euroland.com. Hard to day trade but I don't plan on selling any of my drillers for a couple of years anyway.
The risk in Seadrill has always been the building of spec rigs that conventional wisdom said would never find contracts. Well...that execution risk is being mitigated as contracts are being signed and the newbuildings are coming out of the yards over the next year.
In a word Seadrill is Deepwater. According to the latest Pride slide presentation, Seadrill will have the second largest Deepwater fleet, second to Rig. (Pride will manage more but doesn't own them). They are experiencing their most significant growth this year....right in the sweet spot of deepwater contracts.
I would hope that your curiosity would lead you further in your DD. An intelligent thread has been running for some time at investor village. My ultimate hope would be for you to include Seadrill on your blog.
Best of luck.
Canroys are always more volatile than other stocks. My own belief is that mostly individuals own these for income. As soon as a wiff of bad news comes along,or like Friday, a market downdraft, the weak hands jump ship. Also, I don't believe that this stock has fully digested the Vault and the Canetic mergers. I think many of those investors who received PWE shares are selling, as they don't have the same confidence that PWE shareholders have.
In any event I am buying more on Monday and looking at this temporary dislocation as a buying opportunity. As the previous poster stated, Q1 will be great.
I Listened. I've owned this position for the last 4 years. Bought it around this price, and watched it move up to 54 and back down again. I would agree with the previous poster that some large sellers have had this poition by the throat for the last 4 or 5 months. In fact I was very, very anxious going into this call, thinking that perhaps the sellers knew something I didn't. After listening to the call I am relieved and happy to report that APL is posting better results than ever. The coverage ratio is 1.2 times and they reported very strong net income and ebita. I'm satisfied that once the seller is finished this position will move back to the high 40's. Anyone interested in a high yield mlp would be wise to listen to this call. The pps is close to the 4 year low and the distribution yield at and all time high. The forward looking statements couldn't have been more bullish.
Good luck to all patient longs!!
Actually your financial advisor is profering one of the best arguments for staying away from this sector in my opinion. It's the same argument given as to why all impending retiring baby boomers should sell stocks now, lest they try to sell when the wave of boomers retire and are left holding the bag. The conventional wisdom being that ALL retired folks want only bonds for income.
My personal rebuttal would be the following:
1) The tax doesn't take effect until 2011.
2) Canetic has huge tax pools that would enable PWE to
keep paying a tax advantaged distribution long after 2011
3) PWE is selling at a DISCOUNT to it's NAV
4) The price movements will over time move with oil and gas
5) You have plenty of time to buy now and sell prior to Dec
2010 if you are spooked.
6) Many would argue that based on PWE trading at a discount
to it's NAV, that a change to a corp or a MLP would help
the stock in the future.
Having myself been a broker for over 20 years, I can see that your broker doesn't want you to buy something that could come back to bite...HIM. So, after doing your own DD buy some as an unsolicited trade should your research lead you. Now your both happy!!
All of the 2008 record and payments dates can be found at the Enerplus website, under Cash Distributions of the Investor relations tab.
For February the record date is Feb 10 and the payment date is Feb 20.
After selling most of my Canroys back in the Spring for a nice trade from the depths of the Halloween massacre. I am reestablishing my position. What I have noticed that is different this time around is the amount of small investors that are selling out. I have established postions in ERF and PVX over the last week. In both cases my trade order took a long time to fill. Looking into the trade details I noticed all the 100 and 200 share lots being sold by others to me. I believe this to be a good sign. Most small investors sell at the exact wrong time for all the wrong reasons. I'm sure I didn't get the exact bottom as the tax loss season extends for a few more weeks and Focus/Enerplus shareholders who can't accept change bail(for what?). But those of you with a 6 month time horizon will be rewarded. Just my 2 cents.
I have owned both Noble and Seadrill for sometime. I find it curious that you only post your takeover views on the Noble board and not the ESV or PDE board. Both of those companies would arguably make a better partner, without the premium that Noble would command.
Ensco because they are labeled as a jack up player and would benefit from PE expansion if taken out by a deep water driller like Seadrill. And Seadrill's massive constuction program would benefit from the gobs of cash flow that ESV throws off for funding that program.
Pride has over 14,000 employees. Too many for what they want to become.....a deep water player. They admit in their recent analyst road show that many of the "non core" rigs are profitable and they aren't in a rush to sell them. Well, all those rigs have the employees that Seadrill will need in the next several years. Seadrill gets the manpower, Pride gets it's wish to become a deep water player.
Who knows what might happen, if anything. However, what I do believe is that your argument for a Seadrill takeover should be expanded to some other names as well. It would be a shame for you to be right about a merger and wrong about with whom.
The lack of color surrounding the announcement,the no "thank you for all your years of outstanding service..etc" statements, the ommision of remarks from Mr Jackson himself, the brevity of his tenure, his not taking another job elsewhere, all lead me to believe that the internal investigation that Noble has been conducting reached all the way up the ladder. More than likely the parties agreed that the honorable thing to do would be for Jackson to resign before any external investigation implicated him causing even more trouble at a later date. Of course all conjecture on my part.
I have owned both SDRLF and NE for some time. The combination, although denied by all parties makes perfect sense from my perspective and WOULD benefit both shareholders. Here's why: Seadrill has, as the previous poster pointed out many deep water rigs and drill ships in the pipeline. However, they would squeeze by with their current cash flow when paying for them. They also need to hire many new people to work the rigs. In short Seadrill's share price IMO suffers from a perceived execution risk, which I believe is real. On the other hand, NE has very few rigs in it's pipeline. However, NE has a proven safety record and a envious track record as a cost manager. In addition, and most importantly, they have an ever increasing free cash flow EXACTLY when Seadrill would need it for their construction program. In my mind it would be a perfect marriage and would justify the recent run up in both companies. Synergies exist here that did not exist in the RIG GSF deal. The combine fleet would be the newest in the industry, heavily weighted to the deep water, with the means to be paid for, and the crews to work the newbuilds.
"The life of LNG ships is usually 40 years and by 2010 only 4 ships of the current fleet would be scrapped.Total No of ships scrapped from 1964 to date, is 7. (2.4%)NO ASSET PLAY For the period 1965 to 1996, only 20 ships have changed ownership."
I only count 4 out of 12 vessels that fit your age criteria. 3 out of 4 are on long term charters with options. The earliest renewal is Q4 of '09.
The Golar Spirit which was built in 1981 is set for a conversion into a FSRU and will be on charter in Q2 of 2008.
Golar has stated that Petrobras is interested in more FSRU's so perhaps as the ships come closer to the 40 year age they would convert those if feasable.
Bottom line, age of fleet is not a concern IMHO.
.....or sold an asset(Korea Lines)that many investors, including myself, had hoped they would have kept. Either kept as a diversification tool which added to earnings and flattened out volatile LNG swings, or as an asset to be spun out to shareholders much like FRO did with SFL. I'm not happy.....However,
We all know that JF is one of the best minds in the shipping sector. I've been wondering to myself this week if there is a connection between the recent market weakness and his recent sale of Sea Production from the FRO fold and this sale. Is he telegraphing what he thinks of asset prices and where they are headed?
This whole sector is now vulnerable to price compression as the entire yield curve has been bumped above 5%.
It would appear as if SXL droped below some technical support and was unloaded by a big holder...3X volume today.
I have always found that on a short term basis the MLP's trade more with interest rates than the price of crude. It was an easy ride up for the past 4 years! Now, with many of the MLP's trading in the high 5% area and the GP's in the high 3% area, look for more nervous selling until the bond market finds equilibrium, and the current distribution rate is in line with this new reality.
I also like the mlp's as a safe harbor for conservative income growth. The capital appreciation this year was a bonus. I own epd,epe,dep,apl,atn,mmp,sxl, and dpm right now. I believe the Canroys have the same capital appreciation potential at this point. The market hasn't even factored in the appreciation of the Canadian $ yet.
The interesting sub plot to the Tax Fairness plan is that the potential exsits for some of the Canroys to convert to MLP's in 2011. Those Canroy's with exposure to US interests might be valued higher the closer we get to 2011, provided the proposed tax change becomes law. If you own US mlp's, and understand how they work, you might want to expand into the Canroy's with more than one holding.
My portfolio weightings change over time as I believe it should for all investors. I was an investment advisor for over 20 years before retiring 5 years ago. One of the biggest fallacies of Wall Street is the NEED to remain diversified and in balance at all times. (Subtract your age from 100 to arrive at a balance that should remain in stocks verses bonds, complete nonsense.) This is a recipe for mediocrity, but it promotes buys and sells for brokers.
I spend a good bit of time doing my homework. Reading the reports listening to all the conference calls. Once I am convinced of my fundamental analysis, I buy. In the case of the Canroys I bought after Halloween and continued to buy through January. I just added to HTE when they announced the secondary. My point is that when you ask if I have other investments, it implies that my investment approach if flawed. I mean no disrespect when I state that perhaps YOUR investment approach is the flawed one if it is too spread out. I never made money that way, when something went up another went down, IMHO.
I also like the shippers, I prefer the wet shippers and own FRO, NAT, VLCCF, GLNG and ONAV right now.
For educational purposes I proposed you look deeper into the reports and presentations of the top 6 BY SIZE. This would give you an idea of what the largest players in the sector deem to be important. They are Penn West, Enerplus, Canetic, Pengrowth, ARC, and Harvest. I would also add Primewest after the merger with Shiningbank. After you do enough due diligence to be dangerous I would then apply what you learn to arrive at a bundle of companies that you buy as a basket of Canroys. They are all slightly different, so I would not catagorize one as BETTER than another. Some are more gasy, one is a refiner, some are oil sand plays,some have tax pools,high yield,low yield, etc.
My basket includes, HTE,PGH,PWI,CNE,AAV,PVX,PWE