With all due respect, take a look at the Neuralstem Presentation dated February 7, 2014, slide page 18, which shows a slide as follows:
"First-in-class Neurogenic Small Molecule Drugs – Reverse
War Fighter of the Future” DOD program, initial funding
• Patented Novel Neurogenic Compounds
• 100% owned for commercialization
• Early mover advantage
• NSI-189: Lead Compound
• Recruit endogenous neural stem cells to generate more
new neurons in adult brain
• NSI-189 Lead drug candidate:
• Increases hippocampal volume - + 20% in animal studies
• Rebuilds hippocampus structurally
• Enhances neurogenesis
• Small Molecule Discovery and Development Enabled by Proprietary Stem Cell-based Screening
Note the reference to War Fighter of the Future DOD program, initial funding. There are many other references by Garr on its initial grant that led to its discovery.
"...given that the drug was developed with funding from the Department of Defense specifically to treat veterans suffering from it." Actually, I believe it was funding from the DOD to produce the "super soldier," that could function longer and stronger, but I understand PTSD may be an indication worth pursuing.
5) BTD and/or AA filing for NSI-566 for ALS;
6) Submission of NSI-189 Phase I Clinical Report by Fava;
7) Commencement of Phase II NSI-189 for MDD and/or Alzheimer's; and,
8) Possible collaboration/Partnership for NSI-189.
While I may agree with your prediction of 18-20 upon approval, I cannot believe Baupost is in this for approval only of + or - $20/share. I will be following closely big players like Baupost to see if/when/how much they unload to determine an exit. GLTU,
Ok, Mr. Wizard, what happens when CUR releases Phase II ALS data? While you are at it, what happens when stroke results are released from the Beijing stroke trial? And after that, what happens when CUR releases start of NSI-189 for MDD and Alzheimer's?
Thanks. Not sure I agree that any of those arguments is a strong logical one. Making an acquisition using a part or all of the 150 million shares can be undone by the acquiring company by then selling the acquired company that CUR would make presumably at the same or similar price CUR acquired it (if it had any economic merit); and, having 150 MM additional shares authorized is a little overkill to prudently finance additional clinical trials that are anticipated, imo. Not trying to be a killjoy, but wanting to truly understand the arguments. Not sure I still do understand the argument as a preemptive strike to CUR being bought at a hostile takeover. Why not simply seek a shareholder vote on an amendment to the Articles establishing a "poison pill" provision or two if that were the goal?
I am not sure I understand how authorizing 150 MM more shares can be used to "fight any hostile attempts to take them over and to have more leverage in discussions with Big Pharm..." Can you spell that logic out more for me? Serious question, I just do not follow that logic.
From what I can see with the previous market's reactions to CUR news, as remarkable as they may seem, that should drive the price down 50 cents...
What you say may very well be true with NSI-189 being more than just another depression drug, but I still say that phase II results would exponentially strengthen CUR's position to negotiate better terms than they could get now. It is worth the risk in waiting, imo. This is not CUR's only iron in the fire. CUR has NSI-566 for what appears to be many indications as well. Partnering now I think takes some risk off the table for CUR, but I think it would be at too high a cost in lost royalties, etc... especially when you consider the paradigm shifting potential of NSI-189. Of course, the devil of a partnership deal now would all be in the details. As a long term shareholder, I would still be willing to wait til Phase II results to consider partnering, especially given the "remarkable" results of Phase 1B.
If they are talking, I think they are agreeing to parameters for discussion after Phase II results. For example, CUR might say that it is more inclined to give up on upfront payments to increase royalties and milestone payments. This may be the case since NSI-566 may be much closer to commercialization if granted BTD than NSI-189. Of course the specific numbers will have to wait until the Phase II results are known. But certainly talking and exchanging expectations at this point is not out of the question, imo.
Partnering now before Phase II results in NSI-189 would be premature and short-change shareholders, UNLESS, of course, CUR is made an offer it simply cannot refuse. I see no reflected value of NSI-189 on Market Cap today. I am happy if CUR GIA through Phase II and does not partner with anyone. Any partner after Phase II will have to pay much more (upfront payment, milestone payments and/or retained royalties by CUR).
I understand what you are saying JB, and it must be true given the SP today, BUT, I believe the market has deeply discounted NSI-189 to a point where the market is basically putting no value to it, even though the Phase IB results were "remarkable," as described by its CEO, and especially given its decision to GIA thru Phase II results. The market is giving virtually no value to NSI-189 today, but that will change as we get closer to the initiation of Phase II trials, imo, and on possible multiple indications (MDD and Alzheimer's, if not others). In the interim, SP will adjust based upon ALS Phase II results, possible BTD filing and designation, and/or RTT treatment in those states where it is allowed. Throw in the Stroke trial results that will be accelerating from Beijing, and the SCI phase I trials that will begin some time this year, and you wonder how anyone can be short with all these irons in the fire?
Just checked my account. I started purchasing in March of 2008, and have not sold 1 share since. The CUR storyline (in proving its science) has just kept getting better. I have gone to every annual shareholder meeting since, but not this year since it is in CA. Looking forward to comments from those that will be there.