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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Message Board

mmichaelr 219 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 1, 2015 3:53 PM Member since: Sep 22, 2011
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  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Dec 15, 2014 3:45 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 15, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    Their is no causal effect relationship btwn the early 80s and present. The early 80s reflected the political machinations attempts from Central Banks and government fiscal policies (additional taxation for imported oil__wage and price controls) to squish rising inflationary pressures. The oil enviornment was a demand draw vs. a 'Oligopoly' under supply.

    Since oil is a world traded commodity (even more exchanges now than then the 80s) pricing has become more efficient__reducing arbitrage opportunities.

    The causal relationship is one of over supply vs demand draw. We can see from the relaeses of 'Commodity Trader’s Commitment Report' which entities are buying down and making hedges. If it was not for buying pressure from Inida and Seatheast Asia countries (obviously stock piling) world crude prices wld b even lower.

    There is little doubt in my thinking that OPEC is currently trying to flush out higher leveraged fracking and maybe even South American entities.

    What is nonsensical is the wide brush being pricing applied to everything related. If I am correct about over supply/demand draw then why are refiners eqities being hit so hard.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 13, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    I assume this ID is another from the long list created by hearhere/flame/chumps. I admit I could hv bn clearer in my reply post__not withstanding the he/she attempted to post his/her AGNC trading results as a gain but if they hv totally offset the trades are a now a loser (including time value of money and opportunity cost). The only way he/she has an implied (by he/she) a gain due to taxable adjustments would be limited to the 3k per year capital loss offset.

    So now the he/she is claiming million $$ trades__well if that was true (not) the he/she would be posting about AMT taxes in these posts.
    But from the moron’s own post
    “I have $32,000 capital loss carryover from 2013 on my schedule D. This will be brought up to 2014 and taken against any net gains I have for 2014”

    After all those idiot postings claiming 100% guaranteed event__the he/she not only was mostly out of participation in this equity bull and bond market__but was a loser for 2013!!

    Yeah I know Harry Dent and Hussman will hv their day and then claim righteous victory after losing for years.
    This he/she posts very loose regarding facts and historical data__and recently again resorted to outright lying.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 13, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    I essentailly doubled my position. I assume some of thid downside is related to tax loss selling__however, obviously the market believes the preferred may go in2 arrears.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 10, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    So let us c__u bought and sold AGNC '6 times' but will pay no capital gains due to capital loss tax offsetting. Tax loss offsetting is still (ridiculously) limited to $3,000 a year. Therefore after six trades requiring 12 brokerage and other SEC exchange fees___u profited by a total of $3,000. Brokerages luv amatuer small traders like urself.

    Now ur idiocy in analysis is even apparent in portfolio money management!!

  • October 13 -15 presented a great entry point for sector portfolio adjustments. Selected sector funds still are positive by 8 to 17% versus those entry dates. The future opportunity I posted about on Nov 1 in ‘Closed End Funds’ related to tax selling is here for investors needing to adjust asset allocations (especially for sectors within index allocations). If one is getting tempted by the sale in selected sectors; CEFs will offer further discounted prices from NAVs.

    For those unfamiliar with obtaining info for CEFs__be leary of the accuracy for generic search engines, such as yayhoo. Barron’s is a good starting point for ferreting candidates and the most accurate NAV pricings will be found with major brokerages, such as, Fidelity and the CEF overwriter/management websites themselves. One should be cognizant of expense ratios (for positioning beyond a short term trade) and interpret discounts relative to historical cycle swings.

    Historically the 1st qtr narrowing of spread btwn NAV to mkt price can be surprisingly opportunistic.

  • Reply to

    Bubble #1: Short Term Treasury Yields

    by dr_klumps Dec 7, 2014 8:40 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 8, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    A year and a half ago__ur were posting the FED should raise short rates to enable__retirees/savers to increase their income stream___lately u hvposted it as a negative!!

    Again herehear/flame/(and now dr chumps) if u wld take are classes__u might learn the fundamental background to interpret economic/financial and market information!!

  • Reply to

    Bubble #1: Short Term Treasury Yields

    by dr_klumps Dec 7, 2014 8:40 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 8, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    and that knowledeg has proven to produce___what?? Attempting to shift neophytes asset allocations to follow ur continous posting of mis-information and doom and gloom.

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Dec 1, 2014 6:57 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 6, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    Well you do live in a state with one of the most corrupt and stupid admin officials (and voters to keep relecting )__are they all related you??. But while your state has a sales tax your statement is still as usual incorrect--

    "if Gasoline drops from $5 to $2.50, the Federal, State and Local taxes got HALVED."

    Price per gallon has nothing to do with the Exicse and Distribution taxes__they are based on per gallon (volume)__so arguably economic forces give us a higher volume consumed with lower pricings. The number of people decicing to travel for the most recent holiday increased and auto sales dealerships have already seen a sales shift from their more efficient mileage offerings. Surprising how short term oriented consumer realities are.

    What is not surprising is the analytical thiness of your repeated attempts to understand economic/financial /market machinations.

    After all, any he/she that would have expended so much time (herehear and the flame) to create all those login IDs just to destroy meaningful discourse on this board is beyond any reach of useful intellect!

  • Reply to

    CORN vs OIL !

    by dr_klumps Dec 4, 2014 7:30 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 4, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    U really make no sense. U consistently complain about so called manipulations but u what to use an ETF 'CORN' as an indicator. 'CORN' is manipulated because their decisions on when to roll that spread of three contracts (that I explained to u) is based more on the disposal of and recreation of share baskets than any set date strategy. The futures market pricings are not manipulated because the front month are cash transactions (actual exchange between parties) and the further months are contractual agreements.

    U are a total fool if u cannot understand how to obtain the 'actual cash' commodities transaction pricings for use in analysis. I told u a correlation matrix btwn the ETF CORN and actual corn price is only 0.73__that means any attempt to use the ETF price for comparative analysis is based on false cause and effect relationships.

    No wonder u rechunk the idiocy of dolts like Harry Dent etc. Basically anybody can create a chart of useless unrelated data and u will 'take it to bank'. Did u ever even attempt to study the basic principles of the 'Scientific Process Methodology'?

  • Why do u keep posting idiocy over and over again.

    On 1/2/14 the 1 yr Bill was 0.13% yld, 5 yr was 1.72%, 10yr 3.0% 2day it is o.14%, 1.59% and 2.28%.

    The flattening of the yield curve is the result of the ‘Treasury’ mkts reaction pricings of QE (essentially no different from ‘Twist’ during Kennedy(s) FED).

    If and when short rates are pushed higher due to loan draw pressures__that is when (as investors) we shld hv a concern. We are not even closing on that in any consumer discretionary or staples sectors.

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Dec 1, 2014 6:57 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 2, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    Gosh u cannot help but pst idiocy!!

    "if Gasoline drops from $5 to $2.50, the Federal, State and Local taxes got HALVED."

    You will not find a 'sales tax' on gasoline__it is exactly like 'boydra2002' posted. There are taxes applied specific to the distribution and sale of energy components. Where u hide from 'reality' (Chicago suburb) u have an additional 'Regional Transportation Tax' applied__none of these are 'sales taxes' but 'distribution taxes'__they are not a variable rate but a fixed rate mutiplied by the volume. That is why 'dummycrats' attempt to pass rate increases whence the world market pricing of 'oil' trends into downtrend.

    What effects this revenue base is the volume of distribution not the unit pricing__C_H_R_I_S_T just interpret ur own ComED and Nat Gas supplier billings.

  • Reply to

    Klumpy thinks Europe is a Nation :)

    by pierrrules Nov 30, 2014 1:18 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 2, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Again chumps for just a grand or so a class__we wld teach u this stuff if u took our curriculum classes.

  • Reply to

    Klumpy thinks Europe is a Nation :)

    by pierrrules Nov 30, 2014 1:18 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 2, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    Why the 'f' would I watch the price of 'CORN'__when one can get the actual 'cash price' of corn and pricing of the futures very simply.
    This is not an efficient product for short-term speculation. It is arguable that no fund, ETF/ ETN is going to be better than the ’real futures market’ and its derivatives. However, the recent extreme volatility has helped the options if position timing is favorable.
    BACKGROUND: Corn commodity futures are traded at the CBOT (now CME Group), ICE, TGE, JSE and LIFFE exchanges. Contract months are: March, May, July, Sept and Dec except Tokyo (TGE) has a November contract not a December. I believe that is owing to cultural holiday influences. LIFFE has January, March, June, August and November contract months. Additionally, regional exchanges, such as, MGEX (Minneapolis) offers corn index and basis hedging products. Note: Wheat, Soybeans. Oats etc. use different months and exchanges. For example; there is a ‘Black Sea’ wheat contract and wheat, barley, sorghum and canola is traded on the ASE (Australia).
    The 'CORN' ETF is a Teucrium commodity fund product. Tecucrium offerings do not buy into the ‘spot’ market or the front month contract. Tecucrium designed their offerings to lessen the effects from contract roll when a market is in contango or backwardation. This is either good/bad depending on hedging/investing needs and both current and future contract pricing (whether contango or backwardation).

    'CORN's objective is to reflect daily percentage change (less expenses) in weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three contract months of 'Corn Futures' traded on the "CBOT"; as follows: (1) the second-to-expire contract (weighted 35%) (2) the third-to-expire contract (weighted 30%), and (3) the contract expiring in the December following the expiration month of the third- to-expire contract (weighted 35%).
    If u were to run a 'correlation matrix' 'CORN' vs actual cash and the ist out contract__it wld be at 0.73

  • Reply to

    Klumpy thinks Europe is a Nation :)

    by pierrrules Nov 30, 2014 1:18 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 2, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    herehear (chumps) none of those inputs have any relavant correlation to the pricing of 'sweet corn'__sweet corn is absolutely not considered a commodity__it is not priced via a regulated exchange__therefore; it is not exposed to the 'discovery price' mechanics that are inherit to the definition of a 'commodity'.


  • Reply to

    Klumpy thinks Europe is a Nation :)

    by pierrrules Nov 30, 2014 1:18 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 1, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    He/shealso thinks the European bourses still are trading at 6:30 pm 'central time'__that European countries and also Russia refer to their government bonds as 'Treasuries' and that all of Europe shares a common 'Central Bank'.

    Additionally , the idiot believes the price of a non-commodity exchange traded locally grown product (Sweet Corn) is a leading indicator for general commodity pricing trends.

    In other words this he/she is non economic/finacially educated idiot loon!!!!!

  • Reply to

    2015 - FED FUND RATE HIKE !

    by dr_klumps Nov 25, 2014 3:52 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 1, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    He is related 2 idiot loons.

  • Reply to

    OPEC Confirms, No output Cuts

    by fred357mag2000 Nov 27, 2014 11:30 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Nov 28, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    I am in amazement__an actual discourse about NTI/CVRR etc.. Why not start a tangent post about the boy__the cop blew away__carrying a 'pellet gun'.

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Nov 26, 2014 4:09 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Nov 28, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Certainly one thing u hv bn very consistent with__that is not-separating emotional ‘over-reaches’ and macroeconomic influence.

    2day OPEC announced ‘no production cut’. The market sold anything ‘oil related (even NG??)’ down hard. Now this is on a holiday shortened participant day. The fundamental situation is that the projections of long term respected analysts, such as, Charles Maxwell, are now ‘defunct’ not only due to shale and frackin but a new reality that geological predictions for depletion and (once abandoned well reserve recovery times) were projected forward at a __now known overly negative forecast.

    This is not a demand draw issue but an oversupply of available inputs. The demand curve will continue to push outward___so why R the Refiners/and distribution pipes being sold off 2day.

    That presents a spread opportunity!!

  • just out__number over 40__chumps must b chomping on his he/she stick. While crashes r made up of in mass idiots like chumps__bear markets r made up of bad econs. Sorry chumps not happening!!

  • Reply to

    Two Year Forward Target Price !

    by dr_klumps Nov 14, 2014 4:41 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Nov 20, 2014 3:22 AM Flag

    He/She(s) viewpoint ignores the economic influence of coordinated 'Central Bank' efforts. We have had coordinated 'Central Bank' effortst in the past. Examples are WWI & WWII____now duhhhhh?__what is the difference__this is not a quoted 'Allied Central Banks' versus 'Axis Central Banks'_____again duhhhhh?_this is a metical 'fundamental influence'.

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