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iShares FTSE NAREIT Mort Plus Cp Idx Message Board

mmichaelr 348 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2014 9:01 PM Member since: Sep 22, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Another Undisputed Truth

    by bowinepoor Jan 2, 2014 3:57 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 2, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    Or was it a complement? Think about it !

  • Reply to

    Looked up "the interest rate cycle"

    by herexhear Jan 1, 2014 10:41 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 2, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    I hope you are one of the last hold outs from that class.

    Personally I cannot foloow the clumps logic here. If rising rates will add to govt confers_would it have not made sense to give these boomers a CD equivalent break. Remember the "All Savers Certficates" from the 80's.

    Actually I have discussed this with some of our 'House' reps. The alleged problem is that after all the monetary base expansion__the funds have not made it into the 'Banking Resrves' market__so it becomes multiplied. So why not a targeted "Savers Certificate" interest is tax free and the funds have to be targeted to 'Small Business Loans' committed to hiring an additional % of employees.

  • In an earlier dr chumps post I mentioned the cheapest relative hedge is a % move to cash. I myself ended 2013 with an equivalent 29.7% cash level. I always keep a few % around for opportunities, but most of that was raised in the month of December. It is not only because we need a ‘health restoring correction’ but I believe a measured rotation is underway towards cyclical GDP expansion influenced sectors. Any measured correction from -5% plus is an entry for me. I was buying selected emerging markets today.

    Note: I have an omnibus account and a fiduciary relationship with Fidelity.

    FFRHX: Fidelity's open-end floating rate fund can be used as a short term cash parking mechanism. Floating rate loans are generally tied to the ‘LIBOR’ rate. Looking forward we are in a ‘controlled’ rising rate environment. It has a 30 day yield of 2.59% (annualized), a duration of only 0.27 yrs. FFRHX is 100% USD denominated (even though last SEC filing reported 9% Foreign). It has a 60 day holding redemption fee of 1.00%. So how is that a short term parking place?. This requires application of a simple strategy.

    Fidelity generally requires a minimum initial investment of $2500. I said generally because someone could have an account where Fidelity is the trustee offering a lower min buy in. Additional investments have no stated minimum. So even adding 50, 100, 250 etc. a day is not an issue. Unless you inform Fidelity different they apply a first-in first-out process to account withdrawals. So once your initial opening investment acquires a 61 day maturity__that money can be transferred__redemption free. We do this all the time with clients. We used a different parking fund while rates were declining. This way we are at beating the Fidelity’s FDRXX Cash Reserve account yield.

  • mmichaelr by mmichaelr Jan 1, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    _oh _pardon me Klumps (like clumps of manure). You see the fifth wave of the ‘Elliot Wave Cycle’ will intersect with the ‘Kondratieff Grand Super Cycle’__to all those neophytes this means his repeated “short everything” posts since June only need a timing adjustment. Well have you not noticed that the ‘Wizard of Oz’ has introduced his influence into these esoteric indicator measures? It is now expected the ‘Grand Marshall’ of the old ‘Bozo Circus’ will detect when a tangent overtakes a parabolic. The Clumps has been calling for a ‘Crash’ since 2nd qtr. 2013. Ok__I get it__never talk about corporate earnings growth, balance sheets and earnings multiple increases. Instead some logarithm/esoteric calc of past price performance is going to forecast the future.

    The Clumps reminds me , so much of ‘Robert Prechter’. Prechter infamously published after the ‘Black Friday’ and consequent Monday crash in Oct, 1987___that a grand ‘Bear’ super cycle had started. Well I guess some followers are still waiting for it!!
    Look at a long term chart of any major indices__that was the sweet long entry of a generation of market participants.

    Everything the Clumps was proposing last summer about the world economies has not happened. The Clumps even posted Ben would resign early to allow Yellin to push a hard QE drawdown. He predicted we would be over a 4% 10 yr by the end of the year. He recommended shorting everything in June of 2013. He said short all major oils__even though I responded with a question is that producers, integrated, or E&P

    It was his mistake__do not follow these participants; that do not understand capitalization flows into a short logic. If you are going to hedge the_relative cheapest hedge is moving a % to cash; however if it is a taxable account or you have to pay to get back in__investigate hedging with index futures or options.

    Make asset allocation your “Bible”

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 27, 2013 4:44 PM Flag

    A two yr treasury note currently yields 0.35%__I think your hoped for 2% is as much of a pipe dream as your crash predictions have been.

  • Reply to

    GLTA THIS NEW YEAR EVEN THE GRUMPYONES

    by paulstutz Dec 26, 2013 9:38 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 26, 2013 10:12 PM Flag

    every posting does not have to be a debate or fight!

    Is your mom going to have a service? My dad was found dead at 59n yrs. on 12/21. Dec 21 we were burying his mother-in-law (my moms-mom). It took me at least a decade to enjoy the holiday season again. My dad was a shock__but my mom (seperated) said she thought he may have had a non-noticed stroke around Thanksgiving.

    My mom was my best friend she died at 87_the same age her mom passed. I tried to encourage her to make 88 as a testament to 'something'?

  • Reply to

    GLTA THIS NEW YEAR EVEN THE GRUMPYONES

    by paulstutz Dec 26, 2013 9:38 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 26, 2013 9:47 PM Flag

    Yeah I know that because the YTM and YTW will adust the offer/bid in the debt market. The primary debt markets are as whole more efficiently priced than equity markets. Your 6% will trade above par but the YTM and YTW will almost remain the same for equivalent durations and convexity.

    If you buy above par for a non-perpetual you actually have a negative capital value once matured or called. If the issue has a sinking fund feature__if you buy over par you are gambling on your yield to call.

  • Reply to

    GLTA THIS NEW YEAR EVEN THE GRUMPYONES

    by paulstutz Dec 26, 2013 9:38 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 26, 2013 9:15 PM Flag

    "They can still be undervalued even if they're above par" Relative to what? The interest risk relationship between existing offerings and new offerings remains the same except for convexity. So undervalued would relate more to credit risk__yes?
    The yield spread between credit quality issues and supposed hi yld has measuredly narrowed since the US credit downgrade timeframe. Both areas are looking a little stretched to me.

    I think the fixed (variable) income buys right now are in the international mkts__esp currency non-hedged (like LEMB) (FNMIX) and floating rates (like FFRHX and JRO).

    There are quite a few preferreds and convertibles trading below par on this taper fear! If we actually acheive an above 3.5% 10 year__I will look to start buying into non_perpetual issues. I have been data mining a list of these__but more specifically as a grouping called 'Fixed Rate Capital Securities'. So far I just do not see a commodity pricing push to indicate an inflationary trend to the long end debt markets.

    We really need a correction in the equity indexes touching at least -7%. If we get one (maybe late Jan start).

  • Reply to

    GLTA THIS NEW YEAR EVEN THE GRUMPYONES

    by paulstutz Dec 26, 2013 9:38 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 26, 2013 7:41 PM Flag

    I hope you did not get filled on the PTY. After I mentioned the premium relative to NAV you posted back that many of the securities where undervalued. I went thru all the securities in the top 25 % holdings (PTY does hold alot) approx 80% were priced above par.

  • Reply to

    10 year treasuries at 3%

    by raybans2 Dec 26, 2013 5:32 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 26, 2013 7:27 PM Flag

    I find the following interesting. If you build a correlation table between 10 yr Treas notes and ETFs that specialize in mReits the correlation is starting to break. Also there is a recent divergence between MBS and the ETFs in RSI and MFI.

  • Reply to

    PTY

    by herexhear Dec 24, 2013 9:32 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 25, 2013 3:14 PM Flag

    Are you aware the 12/24 reported NAV is 16.38. Quite a premium

  • mmichaelr by mmichaelr Dec 24, 2013 4:40 PM Flag

    Many of us will attend a religious service tonight or tomorrow. I would like to encourage everyone to look past all the mean spirited postings Craig has initiated and say a prayer for his mother. If it is her time to be called it would be nice if it is a peaceful exit.

  • Reply to

    BOOK VALUE TO RETURN!!!!!!!

    by mikekosanovich Dec 24, 2013 2:27 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 24, 2013 3:04 PM Flag

    I see no commodity trends signaling an inflationary bias that would push the long end up enought to drag the middle (10 yr) to 4% within 6.5 months.

  • Reply to

    Question for CIM Board.

    by vonstutt Dec 23, 2013 3:57 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 23, 2013 6:40 PM Flag

    Chimera’s website posted the special dividend ‘May’ be a ‘return of capital’. That statement and the fact that it is not slated to be a current fiscal year payout; I believe is a strong indication that the majority of it will be ROC and /or capital gains distributed.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 22, 2013 6:09 PM Flag

    I started the disagreement_so I determined the substance. Chimera's website hypertext link to the release says 'special'. Have you lost your ability to read?

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 22, 2013 6:01 PM Flag

    Yes you were. but is it specifically because it is a preferred? When looking at those two MITT issues the preferred placement in the hierarchy has not given much support to their price.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 22, 2013 5:40 PM Flag

    You are correct it cannot be cut unless it is an adustable preferred. They would have to eliminate the common stock dividends before they can suspend the preffered. If it is cummulative they would have to pay any suspeneded dividendes in arrears before paying the common.
    This poster was correct that AGNCP has held up well. MITT has two preferreds that I am aware of that are trading at 20 and 21 and some change. One is 8.25% and the other an 8%. They both were oringinally issued at 25. So they are trading at discount.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 22, 2013 5:13 PM Flag

    I never said it was definitely a ROC__I said a large portion will be ROC. It is not hard to figger this out. If they had income from operations they would make it payable for this fiscal year not next. Since they mentioned ROC it is a tip off that it has to be from asset sales. A bit of cognitive reasoning has to be applied here

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 22, 2013 5:07 PM Flag

    No the substance of our disaggreement is the false hood you posted up this thread__"they have to pay 90% of TI. That's why they paid a special".

    Which clearly it is not. They are making because they have capital (presumably from assets sales) that they cannot hold because a Trust cannot have retained earnings. Unless they are a carry forward before obtaining REIT status.

  • Reply to

    QE - another view (exerpt)

    by h5n1eric Dec 18, 2013 11:12 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Dec 22, 2013 4:51 PM Flag

    That is what happens when the FED buys Notes and Bonds from the primary market aka the Treasury. They compete with all other investors in the auction market making bids along side each other. But since the Treasury's bank account held only with the FEDs New York branch is outside the reserve system that would not be the so-called printing money. The term printing money is an euphemism for injecting capital intothe reserve accounts of banks. Then the money multiplier effect of the fractional reserve process goes into effect.

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