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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Message Board

mmichaelr 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 1, 2015 1:35 AM Member since: Sep 22, 2011
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  • Reply to

    China Selling Bonds

    by twornartini Aug 25, 2015 5:13 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Sep 1, 2015 1:35 AM Flag

    Excuse me__but have U even ran a rudimentary calc for the 'Money Flow' for claimed 'Forex' market transactions versus the 'established debt markets'????

  • Reply to

    Were in a Parabolic Contango Market

    by dr_klumps Aug 28, 2015 3:46 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 31, 2015 9:33 PM Flag

    Yah know__not only r u an amateur__but truly a lost financial mentality. Over time u have consistently miss used the concept of 'convexity'. Even after many of my chumps brain slappings__u still do not get it.

    Now u r miss using the concept of 'contango'. Contango is a 'forward' pricing in futures markets. No one should of every started using that term because it confuses everyone. Except for a couple of futures markets the 'normal' is backwardation.

    Again take some of R classes and u still may be able 2 pull ur head out of ur #$%$.

  • Reply to

    Hat off to Tom McClellan

    by mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 10:25 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    If u really believe in ur forecast__why wld u buy a private equity type BDC?

  • Reply to

    Hat off to Tom McClellan

    by mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 10:25 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    Right now I am not sure what to think.
    Except for that program trading so-called 'flash crash'__I know of no crash in any market that did not precipitate in October. Even the Dutch Tulip Bulb crash.
    The last hour? Circuit breakers will not be in effect after approx. 3:25pm Eastern. Considering the upswing off the; as of now low__I cannot believe profits will not be taken.

    I question any actual fills at the print lows today on many of the ETPs. So far I can find fills in the futures. But those print ETP lows may just be pricing of forced basket dissolution.
    No matter what__anyone who does asset allocation in a portfolio would be compelled to buy/re-balance today__unless fear has just overrun them.

    I do not believe people are going to stop smoking, stop buying grain products, quit drinking alcohol, refineries are not going to stop refining and utilities are not going to stop distributing electricity etc.
    I have had a higher than normal cash percentage since April. I have some non- trading equity portfolios that are based on asset allocation. Whether those lows are real or not__I will put in orders near those print(s); looking for a re-test.
    Recall Oct 1987__the big downswing happened the Monday following the previous Friday rout. Many individual investors did not know about the Friday rout until after they got out of work or checked their accounts over the wkend. Sell orders mounted in mutual funds all wkend.

    Many individual's trades would be not be executed until closing of mutual funds and what about 401K/403Bs etc.

  • Reply to

    Hat off to Tom McClellan

    by mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 10:25 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    I am not really a MReit fan. Except to say that in a fixed income portfolio they can be used to balance convexity across the portfolio(s) duration curve.

  • mmichaelr by mmichaelr Aug 24, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Potential liquidity issues with ETPs due to their structural process of creation/dissolution of 'baskets'.
    Check this out 'DVY' last tick $72.85. Range so far $72.85-48.00

  • I do not really follow Tom__so I do not know if has been of the berma-bear type (like or own Dr.) but he nailed this one!

  • Reply to

    impressive small cap rebound

    by mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 2:14 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Those indexes and the biotech held above their lows in the push down in2 the close.

  • Reply to

    400 - 500 Point Gap Down Days

    by dr_klumps Aug 21, 2015 3:00 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    oh well a repeat of 'possibility'
    Traders should start filtering in soon as the backroom settlement accounting winds down. Should be very lively conversation. As I posted__I feel fortunate to be in this locale at this time. Think I will visit Halsted Sat for taste of Greektown.

  • Reply to

    400 - 500 Point Gap Down Days

    by dr_klumps Aug 21, 2015 3:00 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    There is absolutely NO WAY 'TBT' will be 100-200 fives years in the future due to 'forwardation'. The only possibility imagined possibility would be that speculators abandoned all reason and threw coin at Proshares forcing that overrun their ability to keep creating new baskets (an upward liquidity squeeze) while they are henced forced to roll derivative positions forward at ever increasing prices.

  • Reply to

    impressive small cap rebound

    by mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 2:14 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Trying to go down and see if those indexes will probe the session lows. Interesting to see whether institutions will want to hold over the weekend. After all N. Korea may just lob some more ordinance at the south.
    I had to come to Chicago 2day for a meeting at one of the exchanges. I consider myself fortunate to be here at such a robustly volatile time in the markets. Since a little after 11__I have been at my favorite restaurant/bar near the exchanges. I found this place decades ago when I was taking classes. The traders frequently slip in and out for a quick anxiety relief. I and my laptop have been busy as I renew old acquaintance’s .

  • impressive small cap rebound this early afternoon in Russell 2000 and S&P600__will it hold??

    2day has offered another entry point in banking stocks (mid January was the last one)__a sector that has had impressive money flow and relative strength. This sector is historically out of place in the cyclical recovery cycle__most likely due to 2008 fear overhang and regulatory over reach.

  • Reply to

    FTR has a 401K for their employees....

    by thewizardofstocks Aug 17, 2015 4:27 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 21, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    The 401K may allow purchase of FTR equity (most likely in near equivalent units). However, I believe legislative fallout from 'Enron' prevented offering only a companies own equity and cannot arm twist anyone to buy it. That does not apply to top level execs and Board of Directors.

  • Reply to

    Senior secured bonds

    by a_priest_of_syrinx Aug 18, 2015 7:01 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 19, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    The common and most likely those bond holders will be wiped!

  • Reply to


    by hirsct Aug 19, 2015 4:41 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 19, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    In my schooled opine: The sustainability for future dividends need to be viewed thru ‘Balance Sheet’ debt service, ‘Free Cash Flow’ and ‘Futures Earnings’. The amount of scoring weight allocated to one or the other varies from the sector/industry with related regulatory influences.

    Ur question indicated several years. Currently I feel XOM is the safest.

    CVX is not even covering the divid now with free cash flow (FCF).

    RDS has a relatively strong balance sheet. Reintroduction of the ‘Scrip Dividend program’ will give them capital support. They could stop buybacks but RDS looks to suffer in FCF going forward.

    BP is interesting_there has been an overhang from the ‘Spill days’. If the current settlements remain intact in the future__they could become the ‘out-performer’ if reinvesting the yield. Note: BP has re-initiated a reinvest program.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 19, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    To learn more insight to Sherman and Marion ‘McClellan’___search the Market Technicians Association web portal. They were awarded the ‘Lifetime Achievement Award’.

    Tom__their son__is the one who currently attempts to make a living off his parents name/fame. He has added a hosting of obscure analysis to purport the need to subscribe/visit his daily views.

    I find his current views about a potential liquidity crisis to be questionable. Every country that uses a ‘Central Bank’ with defined goals and elicits them with transparency__currently is floating in ‘excess free reserves’. I am cognizant of a potential problem in bond ETFs finding sufficient liquidity__to liquidate their baskets at fair pricing. However from the structure of ETPs (ETFs & ETNs)__I believe it is the shareowners of those baskets who will suffer.

    Interestingly; their family may be ancestry related to ‘General B. George McClellan’__’Union Civil War’.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 19, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Crashes are not predictable__any such claim was a lucky guess.
    Bear markets can be foreseen as they unfold. The McClellan oscillator uses the advances and declines, as such; as with other well known (used) oscillators is normally used as an overbought/oversold indicator. The summation calc of this oscillator is nothing more than a Money Flow directional indicator.
    Everyone is aware that the market as a whole A/D breadth has not recently been good. I challenge you to find (over the last 12 years or so) a late summer period when the A/D has not deteriorated.

    However, when one analyses the major index sectors there is a definite pattern of money flow rotation occurring amongst sectors. The sectors with the increased money flow are showing increasing relative strength and the A/D breadth of these sectors is improving. As long as new leadership sectors hold up the present give and take in the markets will have again been a shallow corrective phase and will lead to new index His in 1st qtr 2016.

    This, as always is dependent on an extraneous event not occurring__Russia mowing down Ukrainians’, China or N. Korea doing something stupid, a suitcase nuke exploding, Israel bombing Iran(s) nuke installations, a massive earthquake occurring in Calif, a drone attack on the Hoover Dam, Germany leaving the Eurozone, an assassination of the big ‘O’, etc. etc.__or the FED surprising everyone_instead of raising the FED Funds target—raises the Discount Rate.

    If you are interested in some A/D indicators look in2 Joe Granville’s (deceased 9/7, 2013) On Balance Volume OBV indicator. Joe published a book in the 70s?? exclusively about ‘OBV’. Also the old tried and true Richard Arms ‘Trin’. Both of these calcs account for volume influence. Personally I am a big fan of anything Larry Williams published. After all__he won the 1987? Trading championship turning 10K into over 1 million!
    NOTE: Every indicator and combination of indicators lose any predictive value at manic market extremes!

  • Reply to

    Lol at Greenspan, Barron’s and…Brian Kelly!

    by merenkov Aug 3, 2015 1:05 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 18, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    Only I rank amateur would use TBT for anything but a 1-3 day swing trade instead of using the Financial Futures exchange.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 18, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    What price did you pay?
    I am a professional who lead a team that designed the training curriculum for the CBOT and CBOE in concert with Roosevelt University. I use the Financial Futures market. Only an amateur fool would use TBT for anything but a 1-3 day swing trade!

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Aug 18, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    "a definite LONG TERM BUY"
    You obviously have no clue how leveraged ETFs that use derivatives function long term as they create and liquidate baskets.

    But is anybody really surprised about ur lack of understanding and constant restatements about ur alleged trading? I will answer NO THEY ARE NOT!

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