just out__number over 40__chumps must b chomping on his he/she stick. While crashes r made up of in mass idiots like chumps__bear markets r made up of bad econs. Sorry chumps not happening!!
He/She(s) viewpoint ignores the economic influence of coordinated 'Central Bank' efforts. We have had coordinated 'Central Bank' effortst in the past. Examples are WWI & WWII____now duhhhhh?__what is the difference__this is not a quoted 'Allied Central Banks' versus 'Axis Central Banks'_____again duhhhhh?_this is a metical 'fundamental influence'.
'correction ( 15%) until the Dax'
there shld hv bn a 'greater than sign' b4 the 15___it wld not post!
By the way__my opinionated 'macro/sector' outlooks have been consistent with index and sector trending.
While I would not want to be a new capital investor into the large cap/mature markets at their relative valuations__I also would not run from them__but trim profits and reallocate.
It is not that the FED is 'bigger than you'__the board members are actually educated in academic economic and financial fundamentals__where as, u r an internet search pariah__searching for info to rechunck__in support of ur out of cycle distorted views.
Again I will re-invite you to participate in our academic curriculum__but you would have to read, converse inter-changeably with other learners and oh yeah 'past tests'. I know that is not as fun as visiting 'Harry S. Dent' and 'Hussman' websites__by the way who is ur now most favorite "Elliot Wave" prophet. Uuuhh does any even throw any money too 'Prechter' anymore.
Oh maybe u r subscribing to the latest 'best' claimant of unearthing the secrets of "W. D. Gann"__the last time I remember his name was popularized__was a claim that a hereditary relation found 'note books' containing the secrets for the now legendary "Gann Angles". Oh let us not forget the infamous "Jesse Livermore"__oh what the hell__he only committed suicide__after the mkts delivered a 'brain spanking of real (not perceived fundamentals).
Hey chumps who was that common to you idiot that you were attempting to direct people to he/shes website__you have to remember__the regression line off of something or was it tidal wave influences or maybe a lunar cycle battling 'Wonder Woman'. It was maybe 20 months ago__oh yeah we were also 'days' from the ultimate crash.
chumps does not deal with factual financials (I hv proven this over and over the last 1 1/2 yrs by consistently brain slapping the he/she). chumps is one multiple of hundreds of IDs created by this pariah (herexhear (or the reverse)/the flame etc.). This he/she attacked this board with 100sx? postings to assail dividend capture option investor(s). They are now long gone but have been replaced with he/she pariah ID of dr-chumps to try to draw neophytes into the idiocy of not applying asset allocation strategies to deliver total portfolio growth within one of the most historic 'Bull Markets'. In other words he/she wishes to direct others into joining him/her in 'loser town'.
IMO__Without an extraneous event this 'bull' will not have a significant correction ( 15%) until the Dax pushes new HIs and the Asian mkts stretch money flow inputs__by then the Nasdaq will be breaching its all time Hi. Any selloffs approaching negative 6-7% levels should be bought skewing to the strongest relative strength and money flow input sectors.
Contrary to media hype (and chumps) the 1st adjustments from the FED will shakeout weak (non-economically educated fools (chumps)) holders. This will provide entry points into those sectors that can grow earnings in a rising rate (which will exhibit inflationary pressure). Those secytors will after the intial shakeout) propel indexes to new HIs.
Do not listen to these 'internet search', 'copy&paste' chumps that cannot analyze real information.
Hey dork_brain___u r on posting record claiming the FED jumps out of the gate with +/- 1% adjustments. It is only after (as usual) I brain-spanked u with actual facts__u hv now bn posting about smaller increments. Just like ur copy&paste/rechunk of others analysis__start giving credit where it is due. Any further posts on this subject shld acknowdelge with an intro similar to this--"thanks to an actual collegiate educated mentor__I now realize the FED historically has taken measured deliberate adjustments".
You can send be the check 4 ur educational brain-spankings to:
x xxxxxxx, xx xxxxx
I hv 2020s their were desk trades around 88. Of course isn't the point of buying depressed bonds to get called/settled at par while collecting the YTM in the interim.
must b franticly searching 4 some analysis to copy and paste or rechunk to post as his own paralysis.
If u truly believe that about JCP maybe u shld look at the (if not already) 2018/19/20 debentures__the 5.65% coupon 6/1/2020 can be had 2day at $797.5 (79.75 cents on the $).
By the way the RSH 6.75% 5/15/2019 2day can be had 38 cents on the $ (I wld not touch their equity unless the debt holders start letting them aggressively close stores)
This is a copy of a web article that cld b found via the ETF symbol 'HYG'__If u had any ethics u wld have given credit where it id due instead of posting it like it was ur thoughts. But then I do not believe any of us think u r capable of thinking 4 urself.
Considering your incredulous ‘dismal record’ in forecasting interest rates why would anybody assign any favorable probability to any of ur posts.
According 2 u__the 10yr Treasury was 2 b at 4% in the summer of 2013__then later u claimed a 100% probability for the 10yr 2 b at 4.5% in 12/14__well chumps we are long ways from that and hv bn trending opposite.
Additionally as usual u r totally full of brown stuff regarding pricings of Hi-Yld. Using ETFs HYG and JNK as proxies (I hv to use ETFs because u have consistently proven urself incapable of obtaining and understanding actual ‘Futures market’ pricings)__HYG and JNK are at the same range of pricings they were during the 10/14 to 16 correction__again no change in trend.
It is amazing that someone presumably educated in the U.S. can only exhibit the traits of an idiot!
Hey wait a minute__just a month ago or so__you posted the FED(s) history was starting with 1% rate increases__now u r posting 1/4%
I must conclude that my as usual 'brain spanking' info posting correct information about FED rate increases had an adustment affect. Again u could just take r curriculum courses and learn the fundamentals that might prevent u from posting all this IDIOCY!
Well ur correct using that view and certainly some of their hedges are a calculated attempt to alter the convexity of the portfolio across its duration curve.
Technically AGNC is not fixed income because the distributions are 'not fixed' but variable. Some mis-categorize MReits and Reits in general citing a 90% distribution rule when in actuality the 'Treasury rule' is 'at least 90% of taxable income' additionally since Reits cannot retain earnings the two requirements combine to make disributions variable.
Financial planners usu. place a MReit in the medium to long term duration category as a bond equivalency but MReits by design nature exhibit a negative convexity characteristic when compared to other bond investments with a similar duration.
Ur largest problem is u do not report facts__but emotional derivatives of facts.
Many amatuers have correlated this bull with 'Central Bank easing'___'duh_chumps'__that has bn the model since WW1 expanding in2 WW2.
The index mkts recovery had bn initially financed by 'Monetary Easing'__but earnings growth and corporate cash flow has bn a vaccum attracking 'Money Flow' to equities. Now we hv coordinated 'Central Bank' easing (Eurpoe, Japan, SouthEast Asia) This has never happened b4__it had bn the total opposite in the quote & quote 'Depression era'.
Central Banking as a concept was ist proposed by 'Adam Smith'__yes the old 'Wealth Of Nations' author. He may hv bn the first banking consultant 2 b hired. He was instrumental in planning a country(s) ist central bank and reguired currency adjustments.
The equity mkt has not yet run its course__the equity run-up will not end (aside from an extraneous event) because of techinal factors. Techinical factors measure where the indexes hv bn. Truly there are methods to try 2 predict forward index and sector movements. As a curriculum developer for we have to instruct future portfolio managers. The whole key is to measure the macro enviornment and overlay that perspective in relation to individual sector performance____if one learns that and the analytical tools to give one 'the story'__one or a (fund etc.) will outperform over cycles.
I again will post (aside from extraneos event) the indexes will post new Hi(s) in2 the first qtr going in2 the 2nd qtr of 2015.
So u r saying the pariah (chumps, herehear, flame) of this msg brd has continued his hi 90s % for posting mis-information!
U r right! There r many disparate reasons to sell. While there r usually two reasons to buy. Either__feel the security is a good to compelling investment__or__ a contractual type of requirement that the individual must bring their investment total to a ‘required minimum amount’.
face down with someone with an academic finance and analytic engineering education.
AS a further for alloro(s) BS attempting to dispute a poster(s) actual JCP mall experience with a non-date specific parking lot image.
This is from ‘Westfield’ one of a number of business that I follow for information relating to ‘Mall management’ and indication(s) of retailing leasing pressure.
“We obtain entering and exiting traffic statistics from anti-theft scanning columns installed at primary mall entrances. Historical survey data established these measurements are statistically deficit for determining specific establishment traffic demand. Survey data indicates that entrance and related exit flow is relative to driving access convenience determined by the customer’s personal experience. Therefore we depend upon the sales and margin return per square foot contractually required data provided by lessees to determine relative lease rates.”
In other words entrance/exit traffic is determined by customer traffic convenience___not a ‘want to get in2 Sears or Macy(s) or whatever store. This is an illustration for how some investment neophytes will try to mine irrelevant data to support a continually flawed thesis.
would be a welcome event.
We hv had *8 to 14% runups in certain sectors purchased 10/13 & 15___asset allocation dictates that we may need to take some profits again.
The forward coming EOY tax adjustment positioning may provide an opportunity to again adust our sector exposure. If a retest presents I wl b looking at whether the sectors that broke out to the upside will exhibit relative strength, money flow and "On Balance Volume" positive pressure. If those sectors do not hold__then I wld expect lower index lows. No matter I believe a retesting opp (if bought for asset adjustments) will be (feel good) in the late 1st qtr in2 2nd qtr 2015.
There shld b selected asset or sector specific CEFs that wl present themselves at very attractive discounts to NAV
What I believe fueled this is the moronic idiocy of your comparison attempt__U later claimed an aerial view__after initially posting a non-specified view. Even with the aerial view if you try to rotate the view it comes up with various image dates referencing back as far as 2012.
Your aerial view does not provide a specific date__but just as a footnote refers to a 2014 software engine version. That is not an indication of capture date___however, if we gave u that the image is a 2014 capture__the poster reported a specific date experience for visiting a store. U on the other hand provide a possible ‘what date??’ in the 2014 capture.
Again it is the moronic idiocy of ur comparison and ur posting history personality for trying to manipulate information into the category of misinformation that has most likely fueled this subject response.
As I posted b4 shorts apparently need to resort to out right lying!!