Clumps, Clumps, Clumps,
Ur definition of a 'bear mkt/crash' has varied so much__that if ran a correlation spreadsheet__wld only coincide with 'VIX' traders___and I not talking about that 'ETF'__but the the real 'VIX'.
Collegiate (have ever had an actual finance class?) determines a "BEAR" at threshold of -20%.
I have repeatedly posted on this board that 'sector performance vs historical sector performance' when placed within the current economic cycle__will tell the future.
I have seen holdings of GRH-PRC reported in some CEFs and at least one of Fidelity's large (what isn't large at Fidelity) equity income funds.
If you bought the 'C' and they come thru with the dividend pymnt__u will be in a sweet spot! However, something definitely has gone arrear__other than just the pymnt.
I suspect that this type of selloff could only have bn precipitated by institutions__most likely those that cannot hold busted securities. If this suspicion is correct__then they have rcvd corporate guidance that the preferred will be in arrears for some time.
What do u care what others do. Have u deluded urself into believing u have a fiduciary relationship with msg board visitors?
where is that poster now__whom was constantly whining about FTR not doing a (WIN) type REIT spinoff.
Would he/she now like to post the pps results of WIN and CSAL since the spinoff??
A troubling indicator is the WINDSTREAM CORP SR NT 6.37500% 08/01/2023 debentures are now trading at 0.76__they traded at 0.90 3/11/15
So go and pay 'DocReits' a subscription fee to visit his website and possibly pay a download fee for his 100th or so updated (tweaked to curve fit) version__ of his dividend capture strategy.
Then u can be an additional 'Lemming' to bring 'open interest' to thinly traded option(s)__whence he front trades and back trades against all the Lemming(s).
How does one 'short' a divergence? You spread a divergence.
If I understand your logic__the correct statement would be to short MReits because of the divergence??
Cmon now__is anyone really saying that their loss is not relevant__or that the historical references are not meaningful? Can u actually say that__that flag has not found a heartbeat with 'racist(s)'.
Would u feel as comfortable if the #$%$ Swatiska' was openly displayed/pasted on the walls outside of private membership clubs (such as, Turner(s)) that were originally founded by German immigrants to US?
Simply because any one with real financial knowledge, skills and capital will use the actual futures market__not some amateur gimmick, such as, TBT whence only their traders know what the actual day to day derivative composition is!
If you do not like TBT as a speculation vehicle__what r u doing visiting this site??
It is not that TBT is engineered to go to zero. The ETF uses derivatives such as forward swaps and futures contracts. Inherit to those derivatives is time decay which will erode its value if the intrinsic value does not gain relative to time. Just like a put option on TLT (your suggestion) will time erode.
' because there is a lot of rube 'YIELD SEEKERS'
Actually what is more of a concern 2 me is when u watch CNBC (etc) those guys hv never bn thru an interest up cycle!!
Now usually when I post versus u__I post actual factoids__this time I am going 2 paint a wider brush stroke.
Excuse me__but this is a very different mkt from 1987. In 87 (going in2 OCT) the FED orchestrated I believe 3-4 rate increases in rather quick succession__and these where at the more meaningfully "Discount Rate"____not the FED Fund(s) rate. If memory serves correct these where 50 basis point measures. Measureable inflation was increasing___but most Importantly (the most accurate measure) 'Purchasing Power Parity' had shifted between the US and trading partners.
2day is not even the same environment.
While U have bn wrong for almost 2 years now__I hv bn right (see my 'I am vindicated post).
We need a correction badly__but again specific sectors look good and those will propel Indexes to new HIs. I expect a rougher than normal summer trading season. We will remove profits on advances from sectors and reinvest in rising money flow and relative strength!!
Are u another ID for dr. chumps__because just like that he/she u post about things u do not understand.
It is not 2X:
'The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-quarter times the inverse (-1.25x) of the daily price movement of the most recently issued 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond. The fund invests in derivatives that the adviser believes, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as one and one-quarter times the inverse (-1.25x) of the daily movement of the Long Bond. The fund is non-diversified.'
1 mo 0.03
3 mo 0.04
6 mo 0.12
1 yr 0.25
2 yr 0.67
3 yr 1.1
5 yr 1.65
7 yr 1.97
10 yr 2.17
20 yr 2.47
30 yr 2.75
1 mo 0
3 mo 0.01
6 mo 0.05
1 yr 0.25
2 yr 0.6
3 yr 0.97
5 yr 1.5
7 yr 1.87
10 yr 2.12
20 yr 2.57
30 yr 2.82
If one were to perform the calculation from the FED Funds Futures it shows that after the FEDs mtg this past week the consensus view of traders pushed out their rate hike expectation from August to October.