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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

mmichaelr 50 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Sep 22, 2011
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  • Reply to

    My TBT short on the 10 yr Treasury.

    by dr_klumps Feb 6, 2015 9:04 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 17, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    you say short the 10 yr__yet again TBT does not___you need a different vehicle. TBT uses derivatives to weight +20 years. You are such an idiot u cannot comprehend the vehicles u speculate with!!

  • Reply to

    My TBT short on the 10 yr Treasury.

    by dr_klumps Feb 6, 2015 9:04 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 14, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    With all ur continued posting__you might obtain at least a minimum of credibility if you were to post the correct terminology.

    1st) U are not short ‘TBT’ or the10 year Treasury__U are long an ‘ETF’ (TBT) that attempts to achieve a 2x daily multiple inverse relationship to an index created by Barclays for 20 year and greater U.S. Treasuries. If u were short “TBT” u wld b speculating that those long dated Treasuries would increase in asset valuation!

    That brings up this__
    2nd) TBT has no cash flow, no earnings, no income stream__it is not an investment but a speculation via a derivative “TBT” itself employing other derivatives (futures, options and swaps)__that is meant for day and short term swing trades/hedging.

    3rd) Only a financial/economic ‘MORON’ would post that any leveraged derivative ETP is “a no risk investment”

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 12, 2015 8:03 PM Flag

    The codified IRS regulations define that a REIT "must distribute at least 90% of its annual net taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders". The three important concepts are 'at least 90%', 'taxable income' (not EPS) and 'annual' (not quarterly or semiannual but the annual amount). For a 'pass through entity', such as a REIT; the only relationship EPS has to the dividend is the relationship to taxable income. These considerations are why even though they can payout more than 90% they usually hold back to allow some flexibility for the annual total.

    That said; consider these Treasury (IRS) Regulations:
    Under §Section 858, a real estate investment trust may elect to treat certain dividends that are distributed within a specified period after the close of a taxable year as having been paid during the taxable year.

    Now consider/consume this:

    1) §Section 857(b)(9) provides that dividends declared and payable during the last three months of a calendar year and actually paid during January of the following calendar year
    are deemed paid on December 31 of that calendar year or,
    if earlier, as provided by section 858).

    2) §Section 858(a) provides that if a REIT declares a dividend before its return due date, and distributes the dividend within 12 months of year end (but not later than its first regular dividend payment), the REIT may elect in the return to treat the dividend as paid for the year covered by
    the return.

    3) §Section 860 allows for the deduction of deficiency dividends. The definition of a deficiency dividend includes additional amounts required to be paid, as determined by the REIT prior to any controversy with the IRS. Section 860(e)(4).

    Has the concept of distribution flexibility ‘fallen’ on u yet? There is no need to adjust a one month payout__towards a yearly. If that were 2 happen_it wld (probably) reflect a decrease trend in forward distributions.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 11, 2015 7:50 PM Flag

    It is continously interesting how individuals will search fo a scapegoat to justify their own poor decisions__once a scapegoat is found__they pile/on group together with lawyers and initiate 'class action' suits.

  • mmichaelr by mmichaelr Feb 11, 2015 7:37 PM Flag

    The debentures dated May 2019 show a traded +18.52%. The equity on yayhoo reports zero volume at $0.13.

    Fidelity symbol "RSHCQ" reports $0.2045 +2.25% (for 2day) W/A volume of 9,747,290. Again which way to play a distressed corp__Bonds or Equity??.

  • Reply to

    I told you crybabies....

    by stkwhizguru333 Feb 9, 2015 10:21 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 9, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    Are u confused?? This equity within a portfolio should be strictly postioned in the higher yield end of an 'Equity Income' allocation. It is about the position contributing to 'cash flow' wtihin that ports__investments.

    As long as the position positively moves contribution to the overall ports 'cash flow' target__it should remain in the port!

  • Reply to

    Backin up the truck

    by purely_evil Feb 4, 2015 2:26 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 9, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    I am so 'GLAD' u shared that position report___like anybody cares__or wld value that info!!!

  • Reply to

    $20 Oil coming??

    by fred357mag2000 Feb 9, 2015 3:02 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 9, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    $20 is a stretch. The recent rally is about_refiners shutdowns, labor disputes and the seasonal output vs input adjustments. Any crude price points pushing towards $40 is an opp to buy integrated and selected refiners for a reset pricing that will not 'fold' until the next 'Globally based cyclical' downturn.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 9, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    The equity can be traded under this symbol at 0.131 2day__that makes U 'Worthless' for information value!

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 9, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    I posted on the 'now defunct RSH' board a few times starting in Apr 2014__that Ifelt the 'Common' wld b wiped and I was interested in selected bond holdings.

    I doubt their will b anything left for equity holders. As I hv posted b4__certain debentures may recieve up2 0.30 on the dollar__these issues were trading 2day at 0.15. This is why the buy-in to trouble companies is in the debt not the equity. If one holds the equity either sell it now in the OTC mkt or hope for an excution stay from the courts__which wld propel a short term run-up.

    By the way__the only real hope for debenture holders (bonds) is a 'class action' suit that the 'designated judge' hears that claims "mis--something" for asset right dilution between them and the "Senior Loan Holders" that came on board in the last year or so!

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 7, 2015 10:31 PM Flag

    I posted my 'first wide brush' about sectors. My second is a funneling/filtering__approach.

    The overall mkts did not exhibit the usual ‘seasonal December to Jan’ affect.
    Again now I hv 2 attempt 2 identify why the ‘cycle’ has repositioned. That has not changed my ‘sector overweights’__but has adjusted my percentage of overweights.

    I skimmed profits in utilities, staples and pharma. I am selectively increasing positions in “Large Cap integrated energy”. Transports r interesting__we hv a cause and effect play out unfolding. Even tho the ‘Dow’ indexes do not mean much 2 me__the “Dow Theory” actually does.

    Many Intl mkts are__relative to US r a better buy. I like emerging mkt debt__Fidelity ‘FNMIX’ and a ‘CEF’ “EDD” symbol. I like floating rate debt. Again Fidelity’s ‘FFRHX’ and a ‘CEF’ “JRO”.

    I now hv a problem with ‘wide brush emerging mkt funds and ‘ETPs’__this has become a very segmented environment’. There is a ‘currency war’ btwn “Central Banks” unfolding.

    Re-read the last 2 paragraphs__is that a dichotomy??___It is a result of where we r at in the ‘Global Business Cycle’.____If one understands the debt and futures mkts__they always pre-sage equities.

  • Reply to

    My TBT short on the 10 yr Treasury.

    by dr_klumps Feb 6, 2015 9:04 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Feb 7, 2015 9:38 PM Flag

    So tell us when U look at the 'financial futures' from current "cash month" till 'June'__what do they tell U. I mean after all: is that not what "TBT" attempts to own.

    Oh excuse me__that whole concept of creation and dissolution of "ETF" baskets__escape ur moronic brain capacity.

    GOSH is that "SCARRY" 2 U 2 actually attempt an actual "Financial Futures/Option" position__intsead of being of being abused by 'ETPs'??

  • Reply to

    Short the Airlines !

    by dr_klumps Jan 30, 2015 8:44 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 31, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    It is too early.
    I have had a rolling futures spread 'long the transporsts__short the industials. At some future point I will chg in to long transports__short utilities.

  • Reply to

    Hows those hedges going, especially the Euro ones?

    by dr_klumps Jan 30, 2015 10:04 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 31, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    That post is onlychanneling (spelling) ur 'herehear and flame' responses.

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 31, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    They are over extended (cash flow vs debt pymnts)._that is a pass thru from the overhang of the last credit cycle. U did note that the "Big O" admin approved 'Fannie etc.' to reduce dowm pymnt req(s) (real estate).

    I believe it is mistake to again loosen real estate loan req(s)__I would rather have it loosened for ‘Small Business’ loans

    U know from my posting that I believe in a top-down 'Macro' analysis that is thrown against an analysis of sectoral performance__that approach is__the top down__colliding with expected cyclical sector performance (bottom up)__the result is where I overweight/underweight.

    The fact that the "Big O" admin feels that we are OK to go back down that path troubles me. “They hv not learned”.

    Besides from the parameters I already posted__the indicators of inflationary pressure will come from “Consumer Purchasing Power” and a decrease in “Supply Chain” drawn inventories. Across the commodity draw econs__this discount in energy pricing is__again an effective ‘consumer tax cut’. From a sectoral basis the ? is where is that capital going to flow to?

    I have made my decisions__and any uderpressure day I am adding!!

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 28, 2015 10:53 PM Flag

    The SeaHawks will win!!

  • Reply to

    Is the Shoe Ready to Drop ?

    by dr_klumps Jan 26, 2015 2:30 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 28, 2015 10:51 PM Flag

    We have to pass dis-inflation b4 deflation__I do thinku know the difference!

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 28, 2015 8:19 PM Flag

    It depends on what economy and what currency u r pricing in. In the US we are in a low inflationary bias. The EuroZone overall is in a slight inflationary bias. Certain S. American countries are in an exponential inflationary bias. Certain 'Commodity Export economies' are in a dis-inflationary bias__that is "Dis" not "De"___disinflation precedes "De".

    Ur "Russia" economy is trending towards exponential.
    I do not want to hear u respond with some 'Harry Dent' or such idiocy about "Central Banking" stimulus as the big boogey man.

    The only professional methodology that has accurately with stood the test over repeated 'business cycles'__is analysis of ‘monetary supply growth’ relative to “Total Economic Output” change (adjusted for currency valuations) and contrasted with “Purchasing Power Parity”.

    An alleged (claimed) economist) (you) would know this and had never used the term ‘deflation’__when the pertinent ? is ‘In’ or ‘Disinflation!!

  • Reply to

    Is this a good time to short the 10 year !

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 1:01 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 26, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    "FED speak"__??

    There is no way that the US Central Bank (right now) is going to do anything that will draw currency reserves from Europe and S.East Asia.

    That is because 'Monetary Reserves' are flowing in2 US Treasury and corporate debentures. Those 'DEBTs' are being funded by foreign asset flows!!!_____Do not upset the apple cart!!

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 26, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    I remember $0.17 on the gallon in Vene__the GOV gives it away as a political tool!

    That 'Is in no-way a deflation indicator'. You as an economic analyst continue to miss the target. The current global energy pricings are a factor of supply over-running demand__that is not the same as; lack of demand growth. Yes demand pull has slowed.

    This was a classic opp to buy in2 large Integrated Oils at a good yield. Could they go lower__yes__if crude busts $40 on the downside__Buy the Integrated. If one agrees that this is an oversupply condition__then the "buy in' is the "Refiner Transports".

21.60-0.07(-0.32%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT