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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

mmichaelr 68 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 17 minutes ago Member since: Sep 22, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Is this a good time to short the 10 year !

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 1:01 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 24, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    Why would you think this time will be any different from your last approx 2 and 2/3 years of suggesting shorting the ten year??

    Oh, Oh, Oh___I know "Time Must Be On My Side_eventually"

  • Reply to

    Is this a good time to short the 10 year !

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 1:01 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 24, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    Since when did Schwab start offering brokering in "Financial Futures"?? Because that is the only way one can 'short' the "Treasury". With all ur continued posting__you might obtain at least a minimum of credibility if you were to post the correct terminology and post accurate info.

    Since I know ur amatuer history__u r thinking of using an ETP (Exchange Traded Product); such as, 'TBX' or ‘TYNS’. The correct 'terminology' is "I am tempted to back up my brinks truck at Schwab and go long an inverse 10 year exchange traded product". Do not ever think those products are an actual 'Short' or an efficient method to accomplish that. Anyone who does__does not understand 1). the creation and dissolution of 'ETP Baskets' and 2). tracking error between the 'target to be accomplished' and the ETP product marketers' manufactured comparable.

    For example: u wish to short the 10 Year Treasury. There 18 currently offered inverse ‘Bond/Treasury’ ETPs. The only non leveraged offerings are the two I posted above. They attempt to target 7-10 year range. That is not equivalent to shorting the 10 yr. The reason they create these false indexes and targeting range is due to (again) the creation/dissolution of baskets and the fact that only a novice or a restricted account would use these ETPs instead of the actual Futures and Futures Options.

    There are professional ‘IRS’ work around(s)__for those in an account restricted from “Series Three” brokerage access. However, an ETP may be the only access vehicle. Unless a 1 to 3 day ‘Swing Trade’____avoiding a leveraged product is prudent.

  • Reply to

    The Russian's Will Lead us out of this !

    by dr_klumps Jan 12, 2015 1:16 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 19, 2015 11:24 PM Flag

    I will hv 2 look in2 that__at I first wide brush__it is a LP__that probably means K1(s). For clients I tend to concentrate on all formats of tax-deferred accounts__K1(s) are a problem. However, I will look further in2 that preferred because my first brush assumption is that is a original $25 issue._________By the way some of the large cap integrated 'OILs" preferred hv traded below par/call/redemption value!

  • Reply to

    This board is one guy with 10 sock puppet aliases

    by herexhear Jan 17, 2015 8:19 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 19, 2015 10:34 PM Flag

    Ur post is a total insult to my 'brain matter'!!

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Jan 19, 2015 5:20 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 19, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    Well I do not know if I should say 'Here You Again' or not. This msg board posts ur post time as '3 hrs ago'__it is right now 9:42 PM ET. So 3 hours ago would be 6;42 PM ET. China is a wide country which encompasses two timezones. Shanghai would not have been open to "reflect ur title post of 'just crashed'.

    Right now "Hang Seng" is +0.77%; the 'SEE Composite has risen from +0.70% to +1.75%, +1.83%, +2.09% as I post.

    U make urself not only an easy 'Criticism' target with ur continued lack of accuracy. That is my 2nd minor to the 1st criticism of you!

  • Reply to

    An addition to my 2015 wide brush

    by mmichaelr Jan 10, 2015 9:54 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 19, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    I have never ran my performance against AGNC. Just because I post on this msg board__it is not an indication that I may own this specialized mortgage bond replacement at any one time. I always maintain a core postion holding in "Fidelity's Real Estate and Income". That fund manger(s) vary the allocation split between equity Reits and debt issues and MBS contract forwards as they determine prudent. The neutral target is 50/50 but seldom encroaches upon +/- 10% skew from target.

    I run my equity allocation portfolio(s) versus the S&P 500 and 'Total Stock Market "Wilshire 5000" index'. Since 1980 I have only under performed those indexes in two years.

  • Reply to

    This board is one guy with 10 sock puppet aliases

    by herexhear Jan 17, 2015 8:19 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 17, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    yayhoo doe not want to display my reply!

  • Reply to

    The Russian's Will Lead us out of this !

    by dr_klumps Jan 12, 2015 1:16 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 17, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    PBS 'Frontline'__CH 11 in ur ‘Chicago’ region__is airing a 'look in2 Putin(s) rise in2 political power'.

    There are two CEFs that lean towards Russia 'TRF' and 'CEE' that hv a 10-11% discount to NAV___however, I feel there are stil more downside (without an oil and mineral/natural resource) pricing rebound to unfold.

    While I still believe that in a ring with the only combatants are big ear pres and Validamar (spelling)_only the latter would exit. That alone does not make Russia a good investment. Personally I have bought in2 a few 'Russian corporation' bond issues on an average pricing of 0.23 on the dollar. From interest pymnts alone__I would recoup my original 'nut' in 3 and 1/2 years. Since Russia could take those 'supposed corporate entities back into ‘Govt’ control at any time__they are risky investments!!!

  • Reply to

    This board is one guy with 10 sock puppet aliases

    by herexhear Jan 17, 2015 8:19 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 17, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    What the #$%$__that guy or r u a girl? is YOU. One only has to follow the flow and ur particular style of posting (also having some real brain matter helps) to understand this. You hv posted under your various (as Dr Phil coined) 'Flame' IDs verbatim character for character to Dr. Klumps.

    As Michael Jackson sang in his released song "Man In The Mirror"__'If you want to affect a change start with the man in the mirror'!!!!

  • Reply to

    Oil Patch Recession !

    by dr_klumps Jan 9, 2015 11:44 AM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 10, 2015 10:10 PM Flag

    OIl patch?
    The Intergrated majors are well positioned to maintain dividends and share buy backs. The princing pressure will be in the non USD hedged suppliers and of cousre 'Energy Service'. While SLB is on my radar screen__going forward I prefer "Fidelity(s) Select Energy Service"__while that will trend up in 'OIL' price recovery__it will be a latter cycle in this 'Overall readustment in pricing oil related assets for the "new Shale/fracking' supply'.

    This will become a fight between entities that can whether the storm and those they have to partner with/merge etc. to survive__allot of future opps!!

  • For sector positioning I look to place sectors first from a top down perspective__1st where do economic indicators ‘indicate’ we are at in overall business cycle. 2nd I analyze that versus historical cyclic patterns. 3rd I overlay sector performance over the first two. Once sector performance results ‘in/out of cycle’ with historical results are identified__I go back to #1 to attempt to determine the economic and Central Banking factors that influence the cycle conformity or difference. 3rd/1/2 That either reaffirms or discounts/downgrade my ‘prior analytics’ 4th I apply technical and cyclical based analysis attempting to identify sectors for a forward look outperformance. 5th I will build positions in these sectors (usually preferring active management versus passive ETP/indexing)__like the “Fidelity Sector Funds” (note I have a professional fiduciary relationship with Fidelity).

    I will invest up to 20% of a portfolio(s) equity allocation in ‘sectors’. In fixed income I will limit ‘Debt’ investments to 12-15% of sector asset allocations.

    I will skim profits from those sectors or build a lower cost positioning until either the 4th or 3rd/1/2st becomes an influence. I will not invest more than 4 to 5% of the total port nut in any sector and when I choose specific investments within a sector__I will place a limit now again to 2-3% of that allocation.

  • Reply to

    Klumlys dead cat bounce..

    by general.miltz Jan 8, 2015 7:31 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 10, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    So again that post just cerifies u r herehear/flame with all ur 100s of IDs. I bet u have more IDs than $1000s

  • Reply to

    This is a 2015 wide brush

    by mmichaelr Jan 5, 2015 9:24 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 10, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    “if you do a "what happens to $10K invested”
    Are u referring to a brokerage or investment/finance website(s) ‘portfolio speculation/expectation’ tool??

    If u r that wld make sense__because those are based on past results.

  • Reply to

    Is this a good time to short the 10 year !

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 1:01 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 7, 2015 9:19 PM Flag

    No___this is a good time to spread currency related end of fiscal year adjustments for equivalent durations between US major trading partners.

    For the US Treasury market__there is such an overhang influence from Central Bank (FED) it is very hard to project. One has to look to interpreting the 'Financial Futures' and 'Forex' (e.g. Commodity pricings) . Ur apparent lack of exposure/experience in these areas have greatly contributed to ur (so far) wrong directional pressure on the US yield curve.

    Though 4 ur thinking and obvious restriction (I assume knowledge base) to equity type investment/trades) one might consider the ETP "FLAT". When u say short the 10yr etc.__it appears u always reference an 'ETP'.
    That is an inefficient way to approach the 'Financial Futures' market.

  • Reply to

    Did Anyone Buy AGNC in $32 - 36 Range ?

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 12:46 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 7, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    By the way u still do not understand the application of 'Convexity' over a portfolio(s) duration curve. Again we would be glad to teach u this in our classes if u wld agree to shut ur piehole and learn 4 a chg!

  • Reply to

    Did Anyone Buy AGNC in $32 - 36 Range ?

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 12:46 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 7, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    "I believe rates are going up this time no matter what"

    Jeese after 2 1/2 years posting wrong directional views on rates__you may finally be overdue. That does not change the facts backed by ur posting history that u r an economic/finacial moron!

  • This a wide ‘FIRST”brush of what I am considering/doing for mine, family and client portfolios
    2015: Sectors to overweight:
    Consumer discretionary: “Fidelity Select Consumer Discretionary”
    An inset of this is:
    Leisure---“Fidelity Select Leisure”
    Automotive--- “Fidelity Select Automotive”
    Capital Equipment:
    An inset of this is:
    Industrials---“Fidelity Select Industrials”
    An inset of this is:
    Regional Banking---“Fidelity Select Banking”
    Emerging Market Bonds:
    First dollar denominated:
    “Fidelity New Market Income” (managed very good and a multiple Morningstar awarded ‘Star’
    IShares EMB ETF
    Second Local Currency denominated:
    IShares LEMB
    Floating Rate Instruments:
    First—specific issuances by mid to high market capitalized companies.
    Second CEFs that are trading below NAV (JRO) that are (not) overly reset to LIBOR (in the current European environment LIBOR will lag). This presents an opportunity later in the upward interest curve push cycle to parse coin from non LIBOR resets into LIBOR resets.
    Third---“Fidelity Floating Rate Fund”
    Sectors to build positions in. Buy into hard pullbacks in these for a 2 to 3 end year collected out performance.
    Natural Resources: ---“Fidelity Select Natural Resources”
    “Fidelity Select Energy” after this one develops relative strength for more than one quarter—consider “Fidelity Select Energy Services” and possibly a mineral mining ETF/fund or the “WITE” ETF.
    Low to mid duration High Yield debt CEFs and UITs

  • Reply to

    Short the S&P !

    by dr_klumps Jan 4, 2015 4:33 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 5, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    Have u ever attempted to do ur own analysis (use that matter btwn ur ears)__or do u just continually search internet forums to find someone to refernce that shares ur bent views??

  • Reply to

    WHAT IF ?

    by dr_klumps Jan 5, 2015 3:15 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 5, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    Only a total LOON (you) wld think that one cld be posting forecasts for a crash for now 2 1/2 yrs and believe u cld b 100% correct___after missing +30% index moves in 2013 and +13% w/divids in 2014 while incuuring tax loss carry forwards. Maybe LOON is not severe enough__MORON is more appropriate!!

  • Reply to

    New Years Eve Omen

    by dr_klumps Dec 31, 2014 8:29 PM
    mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 5, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    The New Years omen is that since u did not sauce urself 2 death__u will continue 2 infect this board with ur idiocy based mental paralysis!!!

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