Fed set to ditch threshold guidance------that was the c’mon title for a ‘finance home’ linked webpod.
Is this a return to a less transparent FED or phrased another way__a more autonomous FED?
If a guidance change actually transpires__I contend it is de-trend from signaling verbiage intended for mass interpretation.
When is the last time you heard the ‘Discount Rate’, ‘Reserve Requirement’, ‘Required Margin Percentage’ or ‘Reserve Multiplier Rate’ mentioned in the financial press??
Note: The two reserve mentions are related. All these adjustments are still available to the ‘FED’__but take serious note of history.
In the 80’s to the mid 90’s (I mention those decades as a reference to what most who post on these yayhoo site will have experienced)__we actually monitored rate-of-change measurements to forecast cause & effect analysis. We monitored ‘Free Reserves’, M1 transitions to M2 and M3, FED repurchases and reversals. These measures would statistically project the “Discount Rate”.
I am suggesting a coined by Michael “de-trend in transparency”. FED transparency functionally serviced the system while liquidity desperately was needed. Recent retail market events suggest that FED transparency (policy statements) inject out of parameter volatility in the debt markets.
Ergo a less transparent FED and more towards the old ‘listen to what they say__but analyze the data’!!!
“”Often thee ‘OLE-England’ is noted as a precursor to our ‘Central Bank (FED)’ construct. It is actually the procedural process developed by the ‘Bank of Amsterdam’ as proliferated in one of the five books of “Wealth Of Nations” (actually titled “An Inquiry Into The Nature And Causes Of The Wealth Of Nations”; Adam Smith (1776). Yeah 1776__the FED was created by a 1913 Act and then modified later.””
Is it better for you to have wasted time posting that nonsense question instead of spending your time helping a family/individual in need?
Those guys are long gone__so why are you trying to rehash it?? Doc is onto maybe the fifteenth to twenty something tweaking using his personal blog. Who cares??
Have you ever visited his site? It is still the (I want to play hi-yield consistent dividend cycles). Nothing wrong with that Michael Thomsett and Gerald Appel Jr. have written extensively about that strategy. The difference with Doc he needs open interest activity to execute his trades. Solution simple__but it took work__extend to lessor capitalized people the 'carrot on a stick'.
It is really no different than you market knowledge deficit individuals posting I bought this__or posting his/her latest screwey idea__or uneducated economic perspective.
Hey here is an idea__the snow cover has been so pervasive area wise__late corn and soybean planting is a good bet. So buy 'corn' or 'soyb'__no matter that can be a trap versus the actual futures market. But what do I know since I consult with curriculum developers for the Chicago and New York exchanges and various college entities.
You amatuers are in desperate need of additional feel good__yet stupid ideas!
Unless they have changed things from what was discussed at the last shareholders meeting__they do not use moderators__but use an scanning application program that looks for key words and phrasing.
How do you expect anyone to regard your idiocy posts seriously? You continually post erroneous information. Just as you wrongly posted Euro treasuries the other week__well as Ronald Reagan once said “There you go again”
There is absolutely no such thing as a Russian Treasury. There are GKOs and OFZs. They clear thru Euroclear and Clearstream.
Do you not get tired of my having to repeatedly brain spank you? Why don’t you just go away for a few years and read books__then come back after you have at least learned the basics.
A dope is someone who continually makes an idiot of themselves. You certainly are a dope!!
This is from Form 1120 instructions which is what REITs file:
Dividends declared in October, November, December and payable to shareholders of record in those months are treated by th REIT as paid on Dec 31 of that year. The REIT is then eligible for dividends paid deduction for the year declared even if not paid out until January the following year.
I paraphrased that a bit
That ia all well and good__but if we were to believe what you post (since you are a total fruit cake I do not) you have been out of the market since at least around last May. At least that is when I recall you starting to post sell everything posts on this board. That is not getting out early that is a total inability to understand the interactive influence of different markets. In other words totally amatuer at best but 'stupid' is more apt.
Other than current price and therefore the yield to maturity (YTM)__the maturity date and your buy in YTM should determine the issue. That is if you can find a retail broker that has them in inventory. I was trying to get quotes yesterday and Fidelity’s inventory dried up except for one cusip.
The maturity date needs to fit into your own personal needs for redemption. For example if in an IRA and you have a 2023 or 2037 issue you could be forced into redeeming under your buy price if you are into required minimum distributions.
If you think JCP will actually BK reorg the later the maturity dates might fare better in a reorg. I would not have bought the debt and now the equity if I thought BK was coming.
I will list the cusips and original issue coupons for the issues I am cognizant:
Cusip 708160BJ4 7.65%, 2016 non-callable
708160BQ8 7.95%, 2017 non-callable
708130AB5 5.75%, 2018 callable?
708130AD1 5.65%, 2020 non-callable, $772.5 +9.96% today (I own these)
708160BE5 7.125%, 2023 callable?
708160BS4 7.4%, 2037 callable?
708160BL9 7.625% non-callable
The 3 issues that I question the call provision is because I did not write it down. You may be able to get the prospectus by googling the cusip or thru quantumonline
I also believe there was a 2015 issue I found.
The above should have been "I do not like what I read__If JCP defaults". That is because by majority vote the trust holders can instruct the trust to liquidate the debentures at what ever current mkt price.
I found the prospectus. I do like what I read__if JCP defaults on their payments. I was correct that the trust does own the 2097 issue. Even with the runup in some debt today at 77 cents on the dollar that debt offers much better protection (though not at a 11% payout). The odds of that trust being redeemed before 2038 at best looks even more remote to me now after reading the prospectus.
I have done very well with other TRUPs but this one I would pass on.
KTP might be a poor choice compared to buying an actual bond issue. Why? [note I have not read the prospectus]
1) It is not actually a bond__but a preferred trust which holds debentures. In fact I assume it either holds cusip 708160BL9 or a similar issue.
2) As a preferred it would probably be wiped in any bankruptcy reorg.
3) It is non-cumulative__if they stop paying the distribution arrears will not accumulate. With a 2097 maturity you could be waiting a long time to be made whole.
4) With six (at least) bond issues that I aware of that have redemptions maturity’s earlier than KTP the odds of JCP having the cash to call KTP before 2038 may be slim.
Granted an original 7.625 coupon trading approx 35% under par is attractive. Is there something in the prospectus that would punish JCP for going into arrears on the debentures this trust holds?? Would you have a link to the prospectus?
The problem here is your analogy is not now trending out. Credit default swaps disappeared and the bonds 2016 to 2023 bonds have soared__as an example cusip 708130AD1 (2020) is up 9.96% today. Yesterday Fidelity had only one debt cusip left in inventory. The debt markets (relatively smarter than little retail equity gamblers) obviously believe JCPs liquidity issue is now a distant concern.
I bought some 2018 maturity bonds and have watching 2020 and 2023 issues. On that big pullback day 2/4 I bought some equity. While I am happy at the moment (listening to the conf call); I am still considered by the down trending in debt issues. Still need to see those pricings trend up!
To those how keep posting a 77% short float__Fidelity reports 42%.
Any equity holder that is concerned about shorts borrowing your shares__can essentially remove them form availibilty to be borrowed. It is a simple technique__Just put in a sell limit order--good to cancel__at a price far out of the trading range high.
yes I do agree with you on that. Really the only time I can see someone using some of the futures based ETPs would be in accounts restricted from actual futures__but someone wants a resource commodity exposure. Still since most markets other than energy trade in a normal forward market tracking error and dissolution of baskets are hard to get around. The Teucrium AG ETFs due a fair job; since they spread the basket assets out over a forward rolling 3 contract expirations (with the longest one year). But I still feel if someone does not have the capital to properly fund a futures brokerage account they should not be speculating in the first place.
Excuse me here__but I thought it was obvious the VIX is based on 'implied volatility on S&P 500 options'__that is not actual volatility but the hedging expectation(s) for futurte volatility. While related they are totally two different parameter events. Anyone who attempts to use the VIX exchange traded products (ETF/ETN)(s) as a speculation instead of a cheap access portfolio hedge does not understand the process of basket ETP creations and dissolutions. Anyone, such as, yourself that posts their use for otherwise purpose (without actually knowing their financial situation and experience) is a #$%$.
It was easy to understand docreits motivation__drive under capitialized individuals into thinly traded options__to expand volume and open interest__allowing him to cherry pick events. You, YBF, and herehere with all the he/she IDs I have never figured out. It is easy to figger dr chumps__an born again and then born again idiot. Just like Craig Walrat it seems you post to get noticed or of course politically spew your hate.
IF SOMEONE DOES NOT HAVE THE WHEREWITHAL__to actually enter the VIX futures market__then most likely you do not have the financial house to support this type of spec. Once you comprehend the ETPs basket fundamentals I mentioned__you would understand how utterly stupid this is compared to spreading between VIX futures contract months. But now VIX indexes are CBOE offered on more than the S&P 500. The easier routine play is spreading between these different implied volatility indexes. It is alot easier to project past to future money flow and relative strength between these than to project a topping or bottoming in the 'old line VIX'
As a last notation anyone who uses the term 'contango' is either an amatuer or someone who expressly is trying to confuse others. The correct terminology is normal/normalized market and the opposite 'backwardization'. However, energy markets are usually in backwardation.
I believe we have been fortunate for many decades to have our system defined autonomous central bank. I am not naive enough to think political entities do not press influence.
Before Ronald Reagan ran for president (while CA governor)__in an interview he talked about whether the US should go back on the gold standard. Now remember this is when US inflationary pressures were starting to sprial upward. I found his thought process about this fascinating. He spoke about how tying to actual gold stores would obviously regulate monetary base growth. But he pointed out that he believed we were in the beginning of a country by country global expansion of central bank monetary control. While he believed tying money growth to a basis resource, such as, gold was prudent in the long term in the short term he felt it was taking a knife to a gun fight. No wonder the Soviets worried that he was actually a cowboy!