If you do not like TBT as a speculation vehicle__what r u doing visiting this site??
It is not that TBT is engineered to go to zero. The ETF uses derivatives such as forward swaps and futures contracts. Inherit to those derivatives is time decay which will erode its value if the intrinsic value does not gain relative to time. Just like a put option on TLT (your suggestion) will time erode.
Simply because any one with real financial knowledge, skills and capital will use the actual futures market__not some amateur gimmick, such as, TBT whence only their traders know what the actual day to day derivative composition is!
Cmon now__is anyone really saying that their loss is not relevant__or that the historical references are not meaningful? Can u actually say that__that flag has not found a heartbeat with 'racist(s)'.
Would u feel as comfortable if the #$%$ Swatiska' was openly displayed/pasted on the walls outside of private membership clubs (such as, Turner(s)) that were originally founded by German immigrants to US?
How does one 'short' a divergence? You spread a divergence.
If I understand your logic__the correct statement would be to short MReits because of the divergence??
So go and pay 'DocReits' a subscription fee to visit his website and possibly pay a download fee for his 100th or so updated (tweaked to curve fit) version__ of his dividend capture strategy.
Then u can be an additional 'Lemming' to bring 'open interest' to thinly traded option(s)__whence he front trades and back trades against all the Lemming(s).
A troubling indicator is the WINDSTREAM CORP SR NT 6.37500% 08/01/2023 debentures are now trading at 0.76__they traded at 0.90 3/11/15
where is that poster now__whom was constantly whining about FTR not doing a (WIN) type REIT spinoff.
Would he/she now like to post the pps results of WIN and CSAL since the spinoff??
What do u care what others do. Have u deluded urself into believing u have a fiduciary relationship with msg board visitors?
If you bought the 'C' and they come thru with the dividend pymnt__u will be in a sweet spot! However, something definitely has gone arrear__other than just the pymnt.
I suspect that this type of selloff could only have bn precipitated by institutions__most likely those that cannot hold busted securities. If this suspicion is correct__then they have rcvd corporate guidance that the preferred will be in arrears for some time.
I have seen holdings of GRH-PRC reported in some CEFs and at least one of Fidelity's large (what isn't large at Fidelity) equity income funds.
Clumps, Clumps, Clumps,
Ur definition of a 'bear mkt/crash' has varied so much__that if ran a correlation spreadsheet__wld only coincide with 'VIX' traders___and I not talking about that 'ETF'__but the the real 'VIX'.
Collegiate (have ever had an actual finance class?) determines a "BEAR" at threshold of -20%.
I have repeatedly posted on this board that 'sector performance vs historical sector performance' when placed within the current economic cycle__will tell the future.
Ask u for advice__is anyone that stupid. U have been wrong on the equity and bond markets for 3 years running now!
When I posted my 'first wide brush look' in January__I posted I liked banking stocks esp regional banks. Your response banking hmmn__better late than never! While I own selected issues since last SEP-OCTs selloff I believe the best way to purchase this sector is FSRBX__$2500 minimum to open and u can add on every selloff day (all no commission). This is a sector that is out-of-place (way late) to perform in the recovery phase of the economic cycle. Likely due to three components: Stretched Central Bank policies, regulation overhang after 2008, and latent investor sentiment (fear) from 2008. The fact that this sector has now been out-performing (relative strength) along with consumer discretionary, capital spending and lower tier floating rate notes are leading indicator(s) that the US recovery phase has legs left.
There are more than 7,000 equity based securities trading on regulated exchanges. U pick out 'one'. If your criteria is that then the market has reached the threshold criterion for the now universally accepted definition of a bear market__rather than a correction __Every Day. Because every day there are stocks that have crossed that threshold.
The next 'Labor Situation' report is released 9/4. If that one reports over the 200K threshold the FED risks losing creditability in this alleged/claimed era of 'increased transparency' if they delay raising much longer.
It is not difficult to calculate the markets consensus view using the FED Funds futures.