What the #$%$__that guy or r u a girl? is YOU. One only has to follow the flow and ur particular style of posting (also having some real brain matter helps) to understand this. You hv posted under your various (as Dr Phil coined) 'Flame' IDs verbatim character for character to Dr. Klumps.
As Michael Jackson sang in his released song "Man In The Mirror"__'If you want to affect a change start with the man in the mirror'!!!!
The Intergrated majors are well positioned to maintain dividends and share buy backs. The princing pressure will be in the non USD hedged suppliers and of cousre 'Energy Service'. While SLB is on my radar screen__going forward I prefer "Fidelity(s) Select Energy Service"__while that will trend up in 'OIL' price recovery__it will be a latter cycle in this 'Overall readustment in pricing oil related assets for the "new Shale/fracking' supply'.
This will become a fight between entities that can whether the storm and those they have to partner with/merge etc. to survive__allot of future opps!!
For sector positioning I look to place sectors first from a top down perspective__1st where do economic indicators ‘indicate’ we are at in overall business cycle. 2nd I analyze that versus historical cyclic patterns. 3rd I overlay sector performance over the first two. Once sector performance results ‘in/out of cycle’ with historical results are identified__I go back to #1 to attempt to determine the economic and Central Banking factors that influence the cycle conformity or difference. 3rd/1/2 That either reaffirms or discounts/downgrade my ‘prior analytics’ 4th I apply technical and cyclical based analysis attempting to identify sectors for a forward look outperformance. 5th I will build positions in these sectors (usually preferring active management versus passive ETP/indexing)__like the “Fidelity Sector Funds” (note I have a professional fiduciary relationship with Fidelity).
I will invest up to 20% of a portfolio(s) equity allocation in ‘sectors’. In fixed income I will limit ‘Debt’ investments to 12-15% of sector asset allocations.
I will skim profits from those sectors or build a lower cost positioning until either the 4th or 3rd/1/2st becomes an influence. I will not invest more than 4 to 5% of the total port nut in any sector and when I choose specific investments within a sector__I will place a limit now again to 2-3% of that allocation.
“if you do a "what happens to $10K invested”
Are u referring to a brokerage or investment/finance website(s) ‘portfolio speculation/expectation’ tool??
If u r that wld make sense__because those are based on past results.
No___this is a good time to spread currency related end of fiscal year adjustments for equivalent durations between US major trading partners.
For the US Treasury market__there is such an overhang influence from Central Bank (FED) it is very hard to project. One has to look to interpreting the 'Financial Futures' and 'Forex' (e.g. Commodity pricings) . Ur apparent lack of exposure/experience in these areas have greatly contributed to ur (so far) wrong directional pressure on the US yield curve.
Though 4 ur thinking and obvious restriction (I assume knowledge base) to equity type investment/trades) one might consider the ETP "FLAT". When u say short the 10yr etc.__it appears u always reference an 'ETP'.
That is an inefficient way to approach the 'Financial Futures' market.
By the way u still do not understand the application of 'Convexity' over a portfolio(s) duration curve. Again we would be glad to teach u this in our classes if u wld agree to shut ur piehole and learn 4 a chg!
"I believe rates are going up this time no matter what"
Jeese after 2 1/2 years posting wrong directional views on rates__you may finally be overdue. That does not change the facts backed by ur posting history that u r an economic/finacial moron!
This a wide ‘FIRST”brush of what I am considering/doing for mine, family and client portfolios
2015: Sectors to overweight:
Consumer discretionary: “Fidelity Select Consumer Discretionary”
An inset of this is:
Leisure---“Fidelity Select Leisure”
Automotive--- “Fidelity Select Automotive”
An inset of this is:
Industrials---“Fidelity Select Industrials”
An inset of this is:
Regional Banking---“Fidelity Select Banking”
Emerging Market Bonds:
First dollar denominated:
“Fidelity New Market Income” (managed very good and a multiple Morningstar awarded ‘Star’
IShares EMB ETF
Second Local Currency denominated:
Floating Rate Instruments:
First—specific issuances by mid to high market capitalized companies.
Second CEFs that are trading below NAV (JRO) that are (not) overly reset to LIBOR (in the current European environment LIBOR will lag). This presents an opportunity later in the upward interest curve push cycle to parse coin from non LIBOR resets into LIBOR resets.
Third---“Fidelity Floating Rate Fund”
Sectors to build positions in. Buy into hard pullbacks in these for a 2 to 3 end year collected out performance.
Natural Resources: ---“Fidelity Select Natural Resources”
“Fidelity Select Energy” after this one develops relative strength for more than one quarter—consider “Fidelity Select Energy Services” and possibly a mineral mining ETF/fund or the “WITE” ETF.
Low to mid duration High Yield debt CEFs and UITs
Have u ever attempted to do ur own analysis (use that matter btwn ur ears)__or do u just continually search internet forums to find someone to refernce that shares ur bent views??
Only a total LOON (you) wld think that one cld be posting forecasts for a crash for now 2 1/2 yrs and believe u cld b 100% correct___after missing +30% index moves in 2013 and +13% w/divids in 2014 while incuuring tax loss carry forwards. Maybe LOON is not severe enough__MORON is more appropriate!!
The New Years omen is that since u did not sauce urself 2 death__u will continue 2 infect this board with ur idiocy based mental paralysis!!!
Without an extraneous event__a large downdraft is not going 2 happen. In fact at already -3.6% in the S&P500__one shld probably be buying in2 the weaken sectors. Then when the seasonally influenced upturn from late to plate 'retail' IRA and 401K/403B etc. money flows in__throw coin in2 the relative strength breakouts.
I am going to give you a free tip__tear into the holdings of Voya Russia Fund, Abeerdeeen Global Equity (largest concentration is consumer staples), Swedbank Russian Equity Fund and Citadell Russian Equity Fund etc. You will find high concentrations in the top ten holdings (similar to a Fidelity Select sector fund)__you will also find similar holdings across those funds. If u truly hv the asset base u hv claimed__then u should hv no problem establishing an Intl trading account with a brokerage like Fidelity. That wld enable buying some of those holdings outright.
By the way the Citadel Fund is USD currency based__has experienced large cash flow infusion in November and currently claims a 4.3% yield__that could cushion the front load fee of 2.5%.
You may want to review the perspective that ‘Russiapartnersdotcom’ has been posting about this subject lately.
But at 17% interest rates ‘I Still Prefer Russian Corporate Debt’ over equities!!
It is too early to develop forecasts for the year ahead beyond broad strokes. It requires the first 3-5 weeks into the new year. Even cycles get extended or compressed in the last few weeks ending a year and entering the new one. As have posted about before; ‘Adam Smith(s) Central Banking’ concepts have been expanded to an increasing number of countries requiring easier transfer payments and currency conversions. This is main reason behind the global expansion of trading exchanges.
Almost universally these central banks use a western fiscal calendar. The machinations required to adjust/correct balance sheets skew data almost across every asset market, but especially in the Forex and debt markets. These weeks are great time for spread traders!
I am registered and licensed__I obey the regulations and ethical standards that my professional designations demand. Therefore I refrain from posting specific recommendations for individuals that I have not interviewed. It also would not be fair (ethics) to clients who have expended coin for rendered services.
So I tend to post about broader macro forecasts and generalized asset allocation/sector perspective(s). Which by the way__I have been on target with over the last 2 ½ years posting on this board.
However, I can legally and ethically post about adjustments to my own portfolio; without that construing a specified recommendation.
I have lately posted about shopping for CEFs and UITs. Again I feel the best starting point is Barron’s published list__because on two pages one can obtain most every offering separated into general categories. CEFconnect, Closed End Fund Advisors and Preferred Stock Channel are good websites to follow with. The latter will allow a csv (comma separated value) download that can be input in2 a MsExcell spreadsheet__this will then allow basic sorting, formulations etc. That sheet once saved as an .xls can also be inputted to MsAccess for enhanced sorting. By the way you can also download csv files from yayhoo which is handy for historical equity prices.
When it comes to bonds and international securities I have an advantage in information access that is not available to retail investors.
There are a number of authors other than myself on seeking alpha that pen articles about income oriented investments.
Ouch Phil! But if chumps acted on his own forecasts the he/she will hv additional capital loss carry forwards to add to the 2013 loss carry.
Yes and they r from the he/she herehear/flame/dr_chumps__M/B 300+ IDs. They combined offer nothing but 'idiocy analysis' in 90 some % of the postings. Most r never historically factual and always skew to the 'sky is falling idiocy'. The collective postings of the 'he/she herehear/flame/dr_chumps' has only resulted in missing yr_over_yr possibly (still 2 b determined) the greastest of "Index" multiples.
We hv not even yet begin to experience PE and Cash flow muliple expansion___a health restoring correction is needed. It will hit in the 1st qtr__m/b early 2nd. After that we will be off 2 the races again__but the advance will (US) based become more selected to sectors. That cld be the top__if Asian/S. America/Europe does not pick up the momentun_____I believe they will.
I hv posted here multiple times that this 'BULL' we not run its course until the Nasdaq and the Dax post new HIs__________I stick with that view!
The Canadian ETF was a preferred equity portfoilo__they closed because it never gained enough traction to bring the assests under management (basically for ETPs number of baskets created and sold). I had to accept their NAV calc at closing. That is the point I am raising about using RSX__the number of baskets yet sold are not that large as of yet to ensure continued sponsorship. That is where CEFs and UITs (besides M/B buying under NAV) offer an advantage.