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e-Future Information Technology Inc. Message Board

mmmparsley 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 22, 2014 9:21 AM Member since: Jun 2, 2003
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  • mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 22, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Busy manipulating this morning on multiple message boards, I see.

  • Reply to

    ALIBABA baby !

    by beachdan1234 Aug 21, 2014 2:52 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 22, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Yeah, that's a long, long way off. There is nothing even close to a guarantee that they get there. When I highlighted this, I was painting a picture of the more optimistic scenario over the next few years.

    And 150 million users wouldn't equate to a price of $15.00-$20.00. That is not even close. If they could reach their most aggressive goals and bring in 150 million users, the value of the company would likely be well over $400.00. That's a long, long way away.

  • Reply to

    well positioned

    by sectorgrinch Aug 19, 2014 10:41 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 20, 2014 5:29 AM Flag

    Amazon - approx $750/Customer
    JingDong - approx $360/Customer
    Twitter - approx $85/User
    What'sApp - Approx $42/User a few months ago, likely higher now.
    Weibo - approx $25/User

    "Yo!" An App which enables people to say "yo" and ONLY "yo" to each other is valued at about $5.00/user.

    I am aware that as of this moment that each individual user of MyStore doesn't have much value because it hasn't reached the necessarily thresholds yet in terms of total/active users. However, should they reach those thresholds, value will be unlocked rapidly and explosively.

  • Reply to

    well positioned

    by sectorgrinch Aug 19, 2014 10:41 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 20, 2014 5:10 AM Flag

    Can you give me an example of a C2B business that has become broadly accepted which values each user at $10.00?

    Valuing a company like E-Future is very difficult, but in any business which is in the transition phase, you have to look at the size of the market they are entering and the likelihood of that particular company being able to compete successfully in that market. What I laid out was the bullish case, while also understanding that their is a bearish case should they be unable to gain traction fast enough to remain relevant in their newest ventures.

    Regarding the discrepancy in the user base, it depends on how many years out you are looking. Both numbers are stated goals of the company depending on the time-frame. A child grows to 4'0" by 7 years old and yet may end up 6'0". A goal of reaching the first milestone doesn't negate the ability to reach the second. Are they achievable? Neither you or I know at this point. But 600,000,000 certainly seems a bit much. At the same time, most successful entrepreneur sets their goals extremely high. Even if there exists a remote possibility of that potential, the stock at these levels may look attractive as it is pricing in failure already. The stock market doesn't hand out free money, but it does create opportunities for those willing to take risks. Clearly there is opportunity here.

    I don't know why you have to casually throw around a word like "lying". Pick up the phone. It's very easy to ask them what their stated goals are for growing the business. No need to dismiss something out of hand. Call the company and ask in their OPINION how big they think MyStore can be? The Final Result; nobody knows.

    There clearly are risks that the company doesn't execute or can not monetize their seed businesses. The same things that make E-Future a risky investment also make it a very attractive investment. They are entering a niche which has limited indirect competition and no direct competition at all.

  • Reply to

    well positioned

    by sectorgrinch Aug 19, 2014 10:41 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 19, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    Well, if E-Future reaches their own internal goal of 150,000,000 subscribers, the company would be worth a lot more than 40x-60x times the current price. The current share price takes absolutely no consideration on the potential here, yet the company still has to prove that the potential is there. Should they reach those levels, 200x bagger would be conservative. Each customer would be valued at around $30.00 minimum, but as high as $100.00. Valuing these kind of businesses still takes guesswork at this point in mobile development, but I can't see lower than $30.00/user being likely. Should E-Future reach 150 million users and should the market assign them a value at higher end of the value/user curve, it would be worth 1000x today's price.

    That's all wildly speculative and the uptake would need to increase significantly, but it needs to be taken into consideration when making risk/reward decisions. That being said, it's only a few months into this experiment, and they are already about 1% of the way there.

    By the end of the year, Users will plateau to much higher than 800,000. I'd guess around 1.5M-2M. It will be hard, as an investor, not to start assigning an intangible value on their subscriber base should they reach those levels.

    The vast majority of the cash draw-down in Q1 was to be expected. The 2 million dollar cash draw down in Q2... not so much. Looking into the line by line cash flow table tells the story and rationalizes the cash loss.

  • Reply to

    well positioned

    by sectorgrinch Aug 19, 2014 10:41 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 19, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    The company left a lot to be desired regarding their Software Revenue YOY comparisons. According to the company, they still have strong relationships with their current customer base, it's just that brick and mortar retail in China have seen their margins pinched and E-Future is negatively effected as a result.

    The backlog appears to be growing consistently as has been the case for the last few years, yet revenues aren't increasing in subsequent years which makes me wonder just how how many years of implementation and onsite training does before payment for services are realized?

    On a positive note, the company expects the MyStore subscriber base to plateau over the 2nd part of the year as many of the retailers using Mystore expand the usage coming out of the trial period. I asked them what their goals are over the next few years for total subscribers and they told me they think 150,000,000 is possible. We'll see.

    Cash drew down dramatically, but a lot of the reason for this cash draw down is because they are investing in projects that will take time to complete. Also their investment into Omni-Channel (seems similar to the Channel Advisor model - ticker "ECOM") and MyStore seems to be included as investment in intangible assets. The 1.2 million dollar investment is an investment in the long-term future of the company and must be made for the company to execute their business strategy. In terms of the first reason for a case decrease, their cash will rise as these projects complete.

    Although the stock has massive upside should the company execute (probably 40-60 bagger potential), they still have to prove the viability of these increasing expenses into Omni-Channel and MyStore, especially as Brick and Mortar retailers tighten their belts and try to be more creative with the metric space available to them rather than expand. E-Future is addressing their customers' need to be more creative with their existing space, but it's going to pinch at first.

  • Reply to

    look out below when superhomo stops pumping this

    by zaudio111 Aug 11, 2014 1:23 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 15, 2014 3:50 AM Flag

    PKgossett,

    I will make good money off of your ignorance.
    Reference: HART, HURC, RCON, LIVE.

  • Reply to

    E-Future a Partner with Ruijie Networks

    by mmmparsley Aug 12, 2014 2:11 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 12, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    To be honest, neither of us know if it is significant or not at this point. But it's worth a mention, for sure.

    If you want to continue to personal attacks, be my guest. The bigger the ego, the smaller the account balance given enough time.

  • Reply to

    E-Future a Partner with Ruijie Networks

    by mmmparsley Aug 12, 2014 2:11 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Aug 12, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    Last paragraph.

  • "从店商到电商:拥抱移动、云与大数据,笑傲O2O"
    Insert the above text into google and you'll see the reference confirming the partnership.

    I'm not sure about the details of how they are partnering or why they are partnering, but a partnership with a $2 billion dollar internet infrastructure provider can't hurt.

    It appears E-Future may be aiming to bundle their propriety software and solutions with larger companies more rapidly broaden the acceptance of these products while increasing their reach.

    Don't know more than that.
    Dave

  • Reply to

    what`s the latest on this??

    by boredwalk32 Jul 31, 2014 12:50 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Jul 31, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    I went into defensive posture today. Sold out of JRJC entirely and took a small $5000.00 loss. Today's market is likely the beginning of further declines and signals either a short or long term market top - so I'd like to sit on the sidelines for awhile with some cash tucked away in case of a meltdown where I can scoop E-Future up on the cheap.

    I knew the market was going to tank after the 4% GDP growth number showed the market was toppy. I heavily shorted XIV to benefit from in increase in market volatility while benefiting from the the horrors of the poor structure of the ETN. Covered too early but still made a huge gain.

    E-Future is down today, likely because somebody in this thing was leveraged and was trying to limit their portfolio risk. Still be valued as a level which shows the market doesn't trust Mr. Yan, but should he deliver, this stock will play catch-up in a major way. I don't see any short-term factors which will create a host of new buyers, so we could test $3.00 again before another whipsaw gain to the upside.

    Have seen further confirmation that E-Future was part of a 13 company team working with JingDong to use convenience stores as a distribution point throughout major cities in China. Found them mentioned with JingDong in an investment newsletters written in Chinese regarding O2O' shaping the retail landscape in China.

    MyStore probably isn't signing up subscribers at the rate we hoped because I haven't seen much evidence of any large new retailers using the platform. Yet at least Yonghui still plans on expanding the in-house MyStore powered platform to all of their stores throughout China and initial consumer reactions seem to be positive.

  • mmmparsley mmmparsley Jul 9, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    You can't just compare one company to another like that. Each company has company specific strengths and weaknesses, different personalities, different capabilities to foresee future trends etc.

    GOMO is 7.5x P/S. E-Future is 0.6 P/S. So E-Future would go much higher than $20.00 if it were to play catchup with GOMO. Can you clarify the relationship between these two stocks because I'm completely missing it.

  • mmmparsley mmmparsley Jul 9, 2014 3:49 AM Flag

    $400.00 a share? 2 billion+ dollar valuation? Maybe in 10 years if they plan, execute, and innovate to perfection.

    If E-Future can prove the current business model is a profitable one servicing 42 of the top 100 Chinese retailers while demonstrating MyStore can generate profitable revenues over a period of time, $20.00 might be in the cards. Without any further updates to add to my current perspective on E-Future, I'd have to be a partial seller at that level. $400.00 is a pipe dream.

    Don't know what is influencing the price at the moment...

    A few positive factors include...

    1. Adam's Book continuing to sell fairly well in China averaging an Amazon Sales Rank in China of about 20,000. Pretty impressive for a niche book about retail strategy and the future of mobile retail. Establishing himself as a thought-leader in China can only be positive over the long-term for the company.

    2. Shanghai's first Micro-Store being opened by an Appliance Company and receiving many positive mentions in the Chinese Media.

    3. A few more Micro-Stores being opened around the country by smaller, regional retailers. I don't spam these boards every time I find out about a new one because I don't think any single new Micro-Store launch by a smaller regional players makes a significant difference. Compounded, however, these launches may be meaningful. The more small regional players they can add to their platform, the more pressure that larger retailers will have to offer competing offers on the platform by including themselves in the MyStore channel.

  • Reply to

    Recent 'Slow Down in China' Talk

    by iamgettingit Jun 5, 2014 1:34 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Jun 10, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Type

    Online Economy O2O into Google.

    You'll get a good idea of E-Future's strategy if you read about the O2O trends in English.

  • Reply to

    Recent 'Slow Down in China' Talk

    by iamgettingit Jun 5, 2014 1:34 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Jun 10, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Orient Granary Co., Ltd. offers food processing and sales; rice cultivation; and food import and export trade. The company is based in Harbin, China. Orient Granary Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Orient Group Incorporation.

    Looks like E-Future is implementing an Omni-Channel strategy to market and sell their Organic Rice Product Line to help them better take advantage of their large rice plantations and industrial capacity, but am not completely sure.

  • Reply to

    scare tactics

    by boredwalk32 Jun 4, 2014 2:07 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Jun 4, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    Lastly, it is imperative that E-Future comes up with an emergency plan should MyStore fail in its ability to drive revenues and expand the customer base.

    If MyStore is causing the company to bleed, at some point it should be jettisoned so the company can refocus on high margin license revenue while removing the deadwood to make this a smaller, but more focused and more easily profitable company.

  • Reply to

    scare tactics

    by boredwalk32 Jun 4, 2014 2:07 PM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Jun 4, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Personally, I have witnessed a few Chinese Companies where it certainly looks like Chinese Investors are manipulating the share price to their advantage.

    After seeing a flurry of trades collecting from the weak hands on Monday afternoon, I thought this looked like it had been manipulated down in anticipation of weak quarterly earnings. Since the selling has continued and today's volume has been relatively high, the trading happening over the last 24 hours doesn't fit into my theory because the stock would have stabilized and moved up after the weak quarterly earnings if I had been exactly right in my analysis.

    My guess, and this is only a guess, is that today's trading is either a seller on margin being forced out, or a weary investor who doesn't want to wait another year for E-Future to prove themselves after years of not exactly torrid growth.

    MyStore needs to grow their base faster than they did in April. To me the 640,000 number was less than I anticipated, even taking into consideration that it's still likely nearer to 1,000,000 because the disclosed number doesn't take into account private MyStore platforms like with Yonghui.

    Many of you won't be surprised that I still think the risk/reward is very attractive here - yet the stock has no reason to do anything spectacular until E-Future can deliver better results and prove MyStore can increase E-Future's top and bottom line over the long-term.

    One thing that has concerned me is how Adam seems to revel in the attention he gets, as limited as it is. He should be focusing beyond himself and be the invisible one in the background working overtime to direct and inspire results. To be a big player on the global stage, the Chinese need to get over the idea of saving face or looking good and just do what is right for the business and their investors.

  • Reply to

    China gonna take ALL your Money ..

    by crattter1 Jun 3, 2014 10:43 AM
    mmmparsley mmmparsley Jun 3, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    Says the guy who was illegally spreading rumors on multiple message boards such as this one when he claimed Camelot Information Systems' and E-Future's CEO's were buddies and that a buyout was coming at $18.00.

    Do you understand that we aren't going to sell shares to you... like ever. And we weren't buying on your faux hype either a few years ago. This is a very independent board with extremely independent investors. You on the other hand can be prosecuted for your posts, so be careful.

  • mmmparsley by mmmparsley Jun 3, 2014 12:45 AM Flag

    Who knowingly knows the known unknowns until the unknowns become knowable and we can knowingly make knowledgeable decisions. (full disclosure: Trying to persuade Donald Rumsfeld to commit some of his capital here.) And there are still many unknowns about how MyStore and E-Future can capitalize their assets in highly dynamic Chinese retail environment.

    However, one thing seems pretty clear, the stock - like many other US-Listed Chinese Companies - has its share price being manipulated by Chinese investors overseas that have more complete knowledge, and perhaps intimate financial details, about the companies they are buying and selling. They are using these stocks as a trading vehicle while nervousness abounds and the veil of opacity continues to cloud the vision of US Retail investors. You can detect them pretty easily because they don't hide their limit orders well at all. They aren't fomenting either by trying to lift or suppress the price by placing deceptive buy/sell orders which disappear as soon as a counter-party attempts to exchange their shares with them. They will allow you to buy or sell a large chunk to them, and if they don't get their price they will shortly thereafter run the price up or down depending on what they likely know in advance will be the next short-term reaction to upcoming news o numbers by the company. That's why so many of these stocks trade completely counter-intuitively. A few Information Advantaged Chinese Investors appear to be taking advantage of Americans Myopia by selling to them after good news and cleaning up the asks during bad news.

    The reason they trade stupidly is they likely have little access to dark pools and probably don't understand the mechanics of entering and exiting a position intelligently. It doesn't really effect them because if the next batch of numbers will be bullish and they have foreknowledge they know somebody will be there to offload on after the good news or sell to them on bad news.

EFUT
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